Showing posts with label Euro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Euro. Show all posts

Monday, November 14, 2016

Trump shift puts euro markets back on edge as elections loom

Mon Nov 14, 2016 | 1:07am EST

Reuters

By Dhara Ranasinghe | LONDON
Anti-establishment votes in Britain and the United States have roiled markets twice this year and investors are determined not to be caught off guard again.

In 2017, voters in the Netherlands, France and Germany - and possibly in Italy and Britain too - will vote in elections that could be colored by the triumphs of Donald Trump and supporters of Brexit, and the politics that drove those campaigns.

A litmus test for Europe is around the corner in Italy's referendum on constitutional change on Dec. 4. On the same day, Austria holds a re-run of a presidential election in which one of the two candidates is from the far-right.

Friday, November 11, 2016

Sterling soars to 6-week high against weakening euro

Thu Nov 10, 2016 | 12:54pm EST

By Jemima Kelly and Patrick Graham | LONDON
Sterling surged 1.5 percent to a six-week high against the euro on Thursday, as investors unwound short positions against the pound amid uncertainty about the fallout from the U.S. election and focused on upcoming European political risks.

The pound's almost 20 percent slide since Britain voted to leave the European Union in June has been the main currency story on developed markets in the months that have followed, and investors have built up record short positions against it on the view that it has further to fall.

But the fog of uncertainty created by Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential vote, after a campaign that included a range of potentially disruptive policy pledges, from building a wall between the United States and Mexico to declaring China a currency manipulator, could provide a different set of impulses over the next few months.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Dollar strengthens as election seen swinging toward Clinton

Mon Nov 7, 2016 | 3:10pm EST

Reuters

By Dion Rabouin | NEW YORK
The dollar rose on Monday after the FBI decided that U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will not face criminal charges, which was seen as a boost to her chances of winning Tuesday's contest with Republican rival Donald Trump.

The greenback gained 0.75 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY after getting hammered last week when FBI Director James Comey said the agency was looking at another large batch of Clinton emails, strengthening chances of a Trump victory, an outcome that was seen as likely to send shock waves through financial markets.

Euro founding father Otmar Issing warns about project's future

By Colletta Smith and Mark Syred
BBC 5 Live
7 November 2016

BBC News

Prof Otmar Issing told the BBC's Wake up to Money that faultlines across the eurozone remain, citing economic weakness in Greece, Portugal and Italy.
The European Central Bank's first chief economist also warned about the impact of negative interest rates.
And he said political pressures threatened central banks' independence.
Prof Issing told the BBC that structural problems in the eurozone and dwindling public support in some countries were still major problems.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Brexit so complex it could overwhelm politicians, warn senior academics

Independent group says leaving EU will test constitution and legal framework to their limits and ‘possibly beyond’

The Guardian

Managing Britain’s exit from the European Union is such a formidable and complex challenge that it could overwhelm politicians and civil servants for years, senior academics have warned.

Theresa May has announced she will trigger article 50 – the two-year process of negotiating a separation from the EU – by the end of March next year. The government will also publish a great repeal bill, which will transfer all EU-originated laws into British law, so that MPs can decide how much they want to discard.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Euro zone lending growth levels off, keeps ECB on toes

Thu Oct 27, 2016 | 4:46am EDT

Reuters

Growth in loans to euro zone companies and households is leveling off, European Central bank data showed on Thursday, keeping the pressure on the ECB to maintain its aggressive stimulus policy for months to come.

Lending to companies grew by 1.9 percent year-on-year in September while household loans rose by 1.8 percent, keeping the steady but slow pace seen since the start of the summer

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Euro Gripes Threaten Economic Recovery as Populism Advances

Alessandro Speciale
October 25, 2016 — 7:00 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Anti-establishment parties are gaining ground in the heart of the European Union, and they may pose a bigger challenge to the region’s economy than any of those that have drawn support in the periphery over the past years.
While populists in Spain or Italy are revolting against restrictive fiscal policies and a weakening of social safety nets, the backlash in France and Germany focuses on monetary union itself. Parties openly advocating a break from the euro are building momentum ahead of a year of election across the region and politicians skeptical about EU integration are already twisting policy decisions. Belgium’s Wallonia region blocked a trade deal with Canada just last week.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Brexit Bulletin: Bankers Threaten Exodus

Bankers threaten early exodus, while PM May tries to head off a constitutional crisis

Bloomberg

Emma Ross-Thomas

Banks will start moving operations out of the U.K. late this year and early next as they anticipate a hard Brexit. That's according to  Anthony Browne, chief executive officer of the banking lobby group BBA, writing in the Observer newspaper on Sunday.

International banks’ “hands are quivering over the relocate button,” he wrote. “Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”
Without identifying any banks by name, he said lenders can’t wait until the last minute and have to “plan for the worst,” especially because “public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction.”
Handily, some real estate companies are already finding them new digs.  A property company managed by Schroders Plc is bidding for an office building in Frankfurt, joining CBRE Global Investors LLC and Standard Life Plc, which are seeking to purchase office space in cities from Dublin to Amsterdam.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Monetary Policy And Political Problems To Drive The Euro Lower

OCT 22, 2016 @ 11:57

Stephen Pope ,   CONTRIBUTOR

Forbes

Over the past week, foreign exchange markets have been offered opposing views on the next play in European and American monetary policy. The differences are wider than the Atlantic Ocean.

In Europe, the Bank of England (BOE) faces many problems as the falling level of Sterling threatens to ignite inflation from its current 1.0% at a time when the economy is struggling to accommodate the uncertainty over the terms of Brexit.

A larger dilemma faces the European Central Bank (ECB). With a tepid economy, GDP growth just 0.3% and unemployment of 10.1% coupled to a fragile banking system it is obliged to hold open the door for further monetary stimulus in December and maintain that accommodation deep into 2017.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

World’s Fourth-Biggest Currency Trader Sees Euro Decline Ahead


Lananh Nguyen

Bloomberg

Deutsche Bank AG is sticking with its weaker euro call.
The currency dropped to the lowest in almost three months and the world’s fourth-largest foreign-exchange trader says it’s got further to fall. The bank sees the shared currency declining to $1.05 by year-end, more bearish than the $1.10 median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Traders will be watching the European Central Bank’s policy-setting meeting Thursday for signals about its monetary stimulus efforts, which haven’t prevented the euro from climbing this year.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Will Italy Leave the Euro? Follow the Money

30 OCT 17, 2016 1:31 AM EDT
By Mark Whitehouse

Bloomberg

Will Italy follow the U.K.'s example and leave the European Union? Far-fetched as it may seem, capital flows suggest that some people aren’t waiting to find out.

To keep the euro area's accounts in balance, Europe's central banks track flows of money among the members of the currency union. If, for example, a depositor moves 100 euros from Italy to Germany, the Bank of Italy records a liability to the Eurosystem and the Bundesbank records a credit. If a central bank starts building up liabilities rapidly, that tends to be a sign of capital flight.

'Brexit' May Hurt Britain Where It Thrives: Science and Research

By KIMIKO DE FREYTAS-TAMURA
OCT. 17, 2016

The New York Times

LONDON — When Adam Durant started his company analyzing climate-related threats to aircraft, he and his team of researchers symbolized the possibilities offered by the European Union.

Soon after graduating from college, Mr. Durant received a prestigious European Union grant to study atmospheric chemistry and conduct climate-related research. When he started his business, he hired staff members from Belgium and France without having to sponsor their visas.

But since Britain voted in June to leave the bloc, Mr. Durant has become the archetype of something very different: a nervous entrepreneur, unsure about future funding and even considering leaving the country.

Monday, October 17, 2016

Nine Things You Need to Know About a ‘Hard Brexit"


Bloomberg

 Simon Kennedy

October 17, 2016 — 7:00 AM EEST

Just when you finally grasped the meaning of “Brexit,” the subject grows more complicated. In London and the capitals of continental Europe, political leaders are preparing to discuss the terms and conditions of the U.K.’s coming separation from the European Union. Two broad options are being shorthanded as "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit," with the U.K.’s prime minister, Theresa May, thought to lean toward the "hard Brexit" camp.

Friday, October 14, 2016

Brexit means…higher prices

The economic impact of devaluations
Oct 13th 2016, 10:29 BY BUTTONWOOD

The Economist

THE economic arguments for and against Brexit in the course of the referendum campaign were quite esoteric and confusing to the average voter. Similarly, sterling’s decline in the currency markets might seem like the kind of thing that only concerns City traders.

So the row that has broken out between Tesco, Britain’s biggest supermarket chain, and Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch multinational, has made the story concrete in ways that were not apparent before. Unilever wants to raise prices across a range of goods to reflect the fall in the pound, which has dropped from around $1.50 on the day of the referendum to less than $1.22 at the time of writing. Similar falls have been seen against the euro; indeed travellers who change their money at the airport are getting less than a euro per pound.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Less than one euro to the pound at many UK airports

By Ian Pollock
Business reporter, BBC News
10 October 2016

BBC

The continued fall in sterling's value means that the average rate available at 17 airport bureaux de change is now just 99 euro cents to the pound.
The worst rate is currently 88 euro cents at Moneycorp at Southampton airport and the best is €1.06 from the Change Group at Glasgow Prestwick.
Since the UK's Brexit vote in June, the pound has fallen sharply in value.
The average US dollar rate at the airports is down to $1.08 to the pound.
What's the pound exchange rate near you? Please tweet your pictures of currency exchange rate boards to @BBCBusiness and let us know
The survey of airport bureau de change currency rates was carried out by travel money firm FairFX on Monday morning.


Monday, October 10, 2016

EU Sagas of Greece, Transaction Tax Back in Focus: Brussels Beat

Bloomberg

  Jonathan Stearns

October 10, 2016 — 1:00 AM EEST

Don't Miss Out — Follow Bloomberg On

Two European Union financial sagas return to the spotlight this week. One is Greece. The other is the financial transaction tax being pursued by 10 EU governments.
During much of last year, it would have been reasonable to bet that the FTT initiative had a better chance of succeeding than Europe’s efforts over half a decade to keep Greece in the euro area. Concerns about the health of Deutsche Bank AG and other European lenders add to the reasons why that’s no longer the case -- and just how far the tables have turned will be on display when EU finance ministers gather in Luxembourg on Oct. 10-11.

Friday, October 7, 2016

London Won’t Easily Surrender Role as Euro Clearinghouse, Hammond Says


Chancellor of the Exchequer says the City should keep the business after Brexit

The Wall Street Journal

By INYOUNG HWANG
Oct. 6, 2016 1:37 p.m. ET


The City of London won’t quietly relinquish its central role in derivatives trading even after the U.K. completes its exit from the European Union, a British official said Thursday.

Philip Hammond, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said firms in London will continue to handle transactions on euro-denominated derivatives. The location of clearing, in which funds are transferred from one account to another, and of settlement, in which financial institutions agree on account balances, has emerged as a key issue in Britain’s departure from the bloc.

London is home to some of the region’s biggest clearinghouses, which are intermediaries that stand between buyers and sellers of financial instruments and act as a buffer should one side fail to hold up its obligation. A threat to the clearing and settlement business could strike at the heart of the city’s large financial industry.

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Dollar flat after U.S. data, euro rises with bond yields

Wed Oct 5, 2016 | 3:30pm EDT

Reuters

By Richard Leong | NEW YORK
The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as encouraging data on the U.S. services sector offset a weaker-than-expected report on private-sector job growth, while the euro was broadly higher in step with a rise in higher euro zone bond yields.

U.S. services industries grew at their fastest pace in 11 months in September, reinforcing the view of a steady economic expansion which would allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, analysts said.

Wednesday's upbeat snapshot of the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management followed perceived hawkish remarks from regional Fed presidents Loretta Mester and Jeffrey Lacker earlier this week.

Monday, October 3, 2016

Sterling hits three-year low versus euro as Brexit deadline set

Mon Oct 3, 2016 | 4:31am EDT

Reuters

By Jemima Kelly | LONDON
Sterling slid to a three-year low against the euro and a three-month low versus the dollar on Monday, after a March deadline was set for the start of the formal process that will split Britain from the European Union.

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May told her Conservative party's annual conference on Sunday that she was determined to move on with the process and win the "right deal", in a move to ease fears inside her party that she may delay the divorce.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Banks Said to Plan for Loss of Euro Clearing After Brexit

Bloomberg
September 22, 2016 — 2:01 AM EEST Updated on September 22, 2016 — 2:33 PM EEST


Executives at global investment banks in London expect France and Germany will prevail in a tussle over the clearing of $570 billion of euro derivatives and are making plans to deal with the fallout, according to people at four of the biggest firms.
They assume the City of London will eventually be stripped of the ability to clear euro denominated swaps after Britain formally exits the European Union, said the people involved in their firms’ contingency planning, who asked not to be identified because the details are private. While that might take years to happen, employees and operations central to the clearing function will be among the first moved to the continent once Brexit is triggered, one person said.
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