Japanese Government Urges Another Increase in Military Spending

By MOTOKO RICHAUG. 30, 2016
The New York Times

TOKYO — The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is requesting another increase in spending on Japan’s armed forces, with a plan to expand missile defenses that would test the nation’s commitment to pacifism and escalate a regional arms race with China and North Korea.

With rising threats from North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile program and repeated incursions by Chinese ships into waters surrounding a string of islands claimed by Japan, the request would let the Defense Ministry develop new antiballistic missiles and place troops on southern islands closer to the chain in dispute with China.

If approved, the budget proposal for 5.17 trillion yen, or $50.2 billion, formally submitted on Wednesday, would be the nation’s fifth-straight annual increase in military spending. It is a 2.3 percent rise over last year.



The request includes proposals to develop and potentially purchase new antiballistic missiles that can be launched from ships or land, and to upgrade and extend the range of the country’s current land-based missile defense systems, a significant expansion of Japan’s missile defense capabilities.

The budget also details plans to buy an additional submarine and new fighter aircraft, and to put close to 1,300 soldiers from the Self-Defense Force, Japan’s military, on the southern islands of Kagoshima and Okinawa. These locations are closer to the Senkaku, the chain of islands where both China and Japan claim territorial rights.

Despite Japan’s longstanding postwar pacifism, initially imposed by a Constitution that was largely written by American occupiers, the country has long argued that the Constitution does not prevent it from maintaining defensive equipment and troops.

But the definition of what is needed to defend the country has evolved as Japan confronts new dangers. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, government assessments of security in the region led to a decrease in defense budgets every year.

Yet five years ago, the government began increasing its budget again as new provocations emerged from China and North Korea.

The budget deliberations come as Mr. Abe’s government is reconsidering the country’s pacifist stance. Mr. Abe has long expressed his interest in revising the clause in the Constitution that says the country must “forever renounce war,” and he helped push through new security laws last year that permit Japan’s troops to participate in overseas combat missions.

A majority of the Japanese public generally opposes amending the pacifist Constitution; protesters mounted large demonstrations against the security bills last year. Yet some Japanese consider the gradual buildup of military firepower necessary for their protection.

North Korea continues to develop its nuclear capabilities and test-fire ballistic missiles that land ever closer to Japan. Just last week, North Korea launched a missile from a submarine off its east coast that flew 310 miles toward Japan, much farther than in previous attempts. By extending the range of some antiballistic missile systems, the Japanese would be better equipped to shoot down missiles launched by Pyongyang.

Japan’s current land-based missile defense systems have a medium range for intercepting incoming ballistic missiles. By expanding that range, the new systems should be able to shoot down missiles before they get so close.

As for the Chinese, their vessels have repeatedly sailed into disputed waters surrounding a group of uninhabited Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea, known as the Senkaku to Japan and the Diaoyu to China. In June, China sent a warship within 24 nautical miles of the islands; Mr. Abe responded by putting the Japanese Navy and coast guard on alert.

Japan’s defense budget proposal includes funds to help proceed with development, in conjunction with the United States, of advanced antiballistic missiles that can be launched from ships and that have much longer ranges than previous incarnations.

Experts said these missiles could be used not only to shoot down North Korean missiles, but also to deter China from invading the disputed islands. Placing more troops on the southern islands of Japan is also intended to deter China from moving closer to the Senkaku.

“We’re in the middle of what is commonly called the security dilemma,” said Richard Samuels, a Japan specialist and the director of the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“When one nation does something which it believes to be defensive and in its own interests, its competitor will see it as threatening and see it as offensive, and then you get this arms race and security dilemma,” he said. “That’s very much in play here.”

The Defense Ministry’s budget request must be reviewed by the Finance Ministry and approved by Parliament before any purchases can be made.

Analysts said nothing in the new budget request suggested that Japan would cross the line from a primarily defensive stance to a more offensive one.

“If they started to procure long-range bombers or intercontinental ballistic missiles, those would be the things where I would say, ‘Now we are seeing something radically different,’” said Jeffrey Hornung, a research fellow for security and foreign policy at Sasakawa USA, a think tank in Washington.

The new equipment proposals also seem carefully calibrated to address current threats. The plan to extend the range of existing PAC-3 missile defense systems from the current limit of about 19 miles, for example, would help Japan protect against North Korean missiles but avoid the appearance of instigating new confrontations, analysts said.

“I think these ranges are very carefully selected,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, senior Asia adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. She noted that Japan would, for instance, be aware of China’s objection to any hint that Japan might get involved in disputes over Taiwan. The distances of the missiles proposed, she said, would not extend to Taiwan.

Amid controversy over Japan’s continued hosting of American bases and troops on the island of Okinawa, the current budget proposal also includes a request for a slight increase in spending on American operations to 178.7 billion yen.

All told, the budget request remains less than 1 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product, a self-imposed constraint that few Japanese administrations have breached.

Some analysts noted that with China rapidly increasing its military budget, Japan’s current military spending might not be sufficient. “In the long run, if the military balance in East Asia shifts in favor of China significantly, we might have to do much more than what we are doing right now,” said Narushige Michishita, director of the Security and International Studies Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

Tooru Miyamoto, a Communist Party member of the House of Representatives, said he did not approve of the increased expenditures at a time when the economy continues to stagnate. “I want such money to be spent on day care centers,” he said.

At an annual review staged by the Ground Self-Defense Force in the foothills of Mount Fuji last weekend, 25,000 spectators gathered to watch a parade of tanks, helicopters and other armored vehicles, with soldiers detonating artillery against artificial targets.

In one segment described as a demonstration of how troops would respond to an attack on unspecified islands, soldiers dropped from Chinook helicopters and tanks rolled across a muddy field.

Naoko Matsumaru, 42, who works in a flour mill, attended the drills with her young daughter and son.

She said that she had been concerned about threats from North Korea and China, but that “after seeing today’s show, I feel maybe we are actually O.K.”

Those who value Japan’s pacifism said they were concerned about the expanded military role.

“In these times, I am a little bit worried,” said Toru Matsuzaki, 71, a woodworker. He referred to a generation of “heiwa boke,” people who innocently take peace for granted. “Realistically, it may be necessary to increase the budget,” he said, “but I don’t like it.”

Follow Motoko Rich on Twitter @MotokoRich.

Makiko Inoue contributed reporting.