Monday, January 16, 2017
A complex relationship with China could temper Trump’s tough talk on jobs, trade
THE HANDOFF | The foreign policy challenges President-elect Donald Trump will inherit and how he might approach them.
By Anne Gearan January 14 at 3:43 PM
Donald Trump talked tough on China during his presidential run, blaming the country for the loss of American jobs, lobbing accusations of unfair currency manipulation or hostile trade practices, and suggesting that the United States levy enormous tariffs on Chinese goods.
“Look at what China is doing to our country,” Trump said in September, during a presidential debate with Democrat Hillary Clinton.
“They’re using our country as a piggy bank to rebuild China,” he added. “We have to stop our jobs from being stolen from us.”
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Desperate Eurozone to borrow BILLIONS to fund Greece rescue amid fears of crash
THE eurozone's bailout fund is borrowing tens of billions so it can fund a rescue plan for Greece, amid fears the country's debt crisis could once again send shockwaves through the bloc.
By LANA CLEMENTS
PUBLISHED: 13:53, Tue, Jan 10, 2017 | UPDATED: 17:48, Tue, Jan 10, 2017
Express
The Luxembourg agency responsible for doling out rescue money - the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) - is turning to markets to raise the extra cash needed for the Greek debt relief programme.
The ESM is now issuing €57billion (£49.5bn) in long-term bonds - up 14 per cent from original plans - to cover the bail-out programme.
Greece wants to sell smaller stake in gas grid operator - paper
Wed Jan 11, 2017 | 2:47am EST
Jan 11 Greece wants to keep a majority stake in its gas grid operator DESFA and sell only a small holding to investors after a previous plan to sell a 66 percent stake collapsed, a Greek newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Under its privatisation programme, a key part of its international bailout, Greece and its biggest oil refiner Hellenic Petroleum had agreed to sell the DESFA stake to Azerbaijan's SOCAR for 400 million euros ($422 million).
Jan 11 Greece wants to keep a majority stake in its gas grid operator DESFA and sell only a small holding to investors after a previous plan to sell a 66 percent stake collapsed, a Greek newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Under its privatisation programme, a key part of its international bailout, Greece and its biggest oil refiner Hellenic Petroleum had agreed to sell the DESFA stake to Azerbaijan's SOCAR for 400 million euros ($422 million).
Friday, January 6, 2017
Mersch Says ECB Policy Shift Premature as Economy Shows Strength
by Carolynn Look and Fabio Benedetti Valentini
January 6, 2017, 12:00 PM GMT+2
Bloomberg
Improving euro-area economic numbers and a faster-than-forecast inflation pickup aren’t enough to warrant an immediate shift in the European Central Bank’s policy, according to Executive Board member Yves Mersch.
“It is absolutely premature today to claim victory over a weak economy,” Mersch, considered one of the more hawkish members of the ECB’s Governing Council said in Paris on Friday. “We have good results but it is absolutely premature to say: drop the guard.”
January 6, 2017, 12:00 PM GMT+2
Bloomberg
Improving euro-area economic numbers and a faster-than-forecast inflation pickup aren’t enough to warrant an immediate shift in the European Central Bank’s policy, according to Executive Board member Yves Mersch.
“It is absolutely premature today to claim victory over a weak economy,” Mersch, considered one of the more hawkish members of the ECB’s Governing Council said in Paris on Friday. “We have good results but it is absolutely premature to say: drop the guard.”
Greece Heads Into Another Economic Crisis: Time To Finally Exit The European Union?
JAN 5, 2017 @ 06:00 AM 15,499 VIEWS
Fortune
Doug Bandow , CONTRIBUTOR
I write about international politics, economics, and development.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
ATHENS, GREECE—Constitution Square has been uncommonly quiet. When looking at the parliament building from my hotel window last month all I could see were cars and pedestrians. The crowds of demonstrators, so common in recent years as the Euro crisis enveloped one of Europe’s poorer states, were absent.
But maybe not for long. Athens and its creditors are at loggerheads again.
When I spoke with the Defense and Foreign Ministers in early December, the conversations focused on Turkey’s crisis, negotiations to reunify Cyprus, and security cooperation with America. The first was beyond Greece’s control. The second has been a political football for more than four decades. The third has been a positive constant for years, with the current left-wing Syriza Party government as friendly to the U.S. as any right-leaning administration.
Fortune
Doug Bandow , CONTRIBUTOR
I write about international politics, economics, and development.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
ATHENS, GREECE—Constitution Square has been uncommonly quiet. When looking at the parliament building from my hotel window last month all I could see were cars and pedestrians. The crowds of demonstrators, so common in recent years as the Euro crisis enveloped one of Europe’s poorer states, were absent.
But maybe not for long. Athens and its creditors are at loggerheads again.
When I spoke with the Defense and Foreign Ministers in early December, the conversations focused on Turkey’s crisis, negotiations to reunify Cyprus, and security cooperation with America. The first was beyond Greece’s control. The second has been a political football for more than four decades. The third has been a positive constant for years, with the current left-wing Syriza Party government as friendly to the U.S. as any right-leaning administration.
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
In Blow to ‘Brexit’ Plans, Britain’s Top Envoy to E.U. Resigns
By STEPHEN CASTLEJAN. 3, 2017
The New York Times
LONDON — Complicating his country’s already fraught preparations for exiting the European Union, Britain’s top diplomat in Brussels resigned unexpectedly on Tuesday, less than three months before withdrawal negotiations are scheduled to start.
The decision by the diplomat, Ivan Rogers, the permanent representative to the European Union, deprives Britain of one of its most knowledgeable officials as it tries to form a coherent strategy for untying more than four decades of European integration.
It also underscores some of the tensions at the highest level of government as Britain’s exit, known as Brexit, dominates the political agenda after last year’s referendum, in which voters opted to leave the bloc.
The New York Times
LONDON — Complicating his country’s already fraught preparations for exiting the European Union, Britain’s top diplomat in Brussels resigned unexpectedly on Tuesday, less than three months before withdrawal negotiations are scheduled to start.
The decision by the diplomat, Ivan Rogers, the permanent representative to the European Union, deprives Britain of one of its most knowledgeable officials as it tries to form a coherent strategy for untying more than four decades of European integration.
It also underscores some of the tensions at the highest level of government as Britain’s exit, known as Brexit, dominates the political agenda after last year’s referendum, in which voters opted to leave the bloc.
Turkey Extends State of Emergency in Wake of Attack Claimed by Islamic State
Ankara is contending with aftermath of New Year’s assault in Istanbul
The Wall Street Journal
By EMRE PEKER
Updated Jan. 4, 2017 4:26 a.m. ET
ISTANBUL—Turkey’s parliament voted to extend the government’s state-of-emergency powers following the deadly New Year’s attack claimed by Islamic State, as the country struggles to contain rising terrorist threats and law enforcement contends with depleted ranks in the wake of last year’s failed coup.
The gunman remains at large after the assault that killed at least 39 people, although Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said authorities had identified the man, without providing details, according to the Anadolu state news agency. There is little information about the gunman’s identity beyond photographs of a suspect released by authorities.
The Wall Street Journal
By EMRE PEKER
Updated Jan. 4, 2017 4:26 a.m. ET
ISTANBUL—Turkey’s parliament voted to extend the government’s state-of-emergency powers following the deadly New Year’s attack claimed by Islamic State, as the country struggles to contain rising terrorist threats and law enforcement contends with depleted ranks in the wake of last year’s failed coup.
The gunman remains at large after the assault that killed at least 39 people, although Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said authorities had identified the man, without providing details, according to the Anadolu state news agency. There is little information about the gunman’s identity beyond photographs of a suspect released by authorities.
How Greece’s Troubled Economy Could Turn Around in 2017
Nicholas Economides
Updated: Jan 03, 2017 8:48 PM UTC
Fortune
Violating the terms of its bailout program, the Greek government recently announced that it will distribute a sizeable “Christmas gift” to Greek pensioners even though this requires additional borrowing from the EU since the Greek budget is not balanced and Greece cannot borrow from money markets. The move has prompted the EU finance ministers to freeze implementation of debt restructuring. Greece is at the brink again.
Updated: Jan 03, 2017 8:48 PM UTC
Fortune
Violating the terms of its bailout program, the Greek government recently announced that it will distribute a sizeable “Christmas gift” to Greek pensioners even though this requires additional borrowing from the EU since the Greek budget is not balanced and Greece cannot borrow from money markets. The move has prompted the EU finance ministers to freeze implementation of debt restructuring. Greece is at the brink again.
Euro-Area Economy Ended Year With Fastest Growth Since 2011
by Carolynn Look
4 January 2017, 11:00 π.μ. EET
Bloomberg
The euro-area economy finished 2016 with the strongest momentum in more than 5 1/2 years, bolstering the region as it heads into a year of political uncertainty.
A composite Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 54.4 in December from 53.9 in November, IHS Markit said on Wednesday. That’s the highest in 67 months and above a Dec. 15 estimate.
4 January 2017, 11:00 π.μ. EET
Bloomberg
The euro-area economy finished 2016 with the strongest momentum in more than 5 1/2 years, bolstering the region as it heads into a year of political uncertainty.
A composite Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 54.4 in December from 53.9 in November, IHS Markit said on Wednesday. That’s the highest in 67 months and above a Dec. 15 estimate.
Thursday, December 22, 2016
Record Capital Outflows Push Euro Toward Parity With Dollar
Higher interest rates in the U.S. are drawing money out of the eurozone
The Wall Street Journal
By MIKE BIRD
Updated Dec. 20, 2016 5:32 p.m. ET
More money has left eurozone financial markets this year than at any time in the bloc’s history, helping drive the euro toward parity with the dollar for the first time in 14 years.
The eurozone had its largest-ever net outflows in the 12 months to September, data from the European Central Bank showed Tuesday.
Eurozone investors bought €497.5 billion ($516.5 billion) of financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, outside the bloc in that period. Global investors, meanwhile, sold or let mature €31.3 billion of eurozone assets during the year. Together, that adds up to a net outflow of €528.8 billion, the most since the single currency was introduced in 1999.
The Wall Street Journal
By MIKE BIRD
Updated Dec. 20, 2016 5:32 p.m. ET
More money has left eurozone financial markets this year than at any time in the bloc’s history, helping drive the euro toward parity with the dollar for the first time in 14 years.
The eurozone had its largest-ever net outflows in the 12 months to September, data from the European Central Bank showed Tuesday.
Eurozone investors bought €497.5 billion ($516.5 billion) of financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, outside the bloc in that period. Global investors, meanwhile, sold or let mature €31.3 billion of eurozone assets during the year. Together, that adds up to a net outflow of €528.8 billion, the most since the single currency was introduced in 1999.
Tunisian Migrant Investigated for Suspected Terror Ties Is Sought in Berlin Truck Attack
Revelation that authorities sought and failed to deport asylum seeker stokes criticism of Angela Merkel’s refugee policy
The Wall Street Journal
By ANTON TROIANOVSKI and RUTH BENDER
Updated Dec. 21, 2016 7:31 p.m. ET
BERLIN—Anis Amri, a Tunisian migrant whom authorities previously investigated for suspected terror ties and tried to deport, became Germany’s most wanted man as the new prime suspect in the capital’s deadly truck attack.
The revelation that the asylum seeker had been able to remain in Germany despite efforts to expel him stoked a furor over what many politicians called dangerous gaps in the country’s immigration policy and escalated the political crisis facing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government.
The Wall Street Journal
By ANTON TROIANOVSKI and RUTH BENDER
Updated Dec. 21, 2016 7:31 p.m. ET
BERLIN—Anis Amri, a Tunisian migrant whom authorities previously investigated for suspected terror ties and tried to deport, became Germany’s most wanted man as the new prime suspect in the capital’s deadly truck attack.
The revelation that the asylum seeker had been able to remain in Germany despite efforts to expel him stoked a furor over what many politicians called dangerous gaps in the country’s immigration policy and escalated the political crisis facing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government.
Greece’s New Year of Living Dangerously
Tsipras is antagonizing creditors again, setting the stage for a new bailout showdown and an election.
The Wall Street Journal
By YANNIS PALAIOLOGOS
Dec. 21, 2016 3:05 p.m. ET
4 COMMENTS
If last year was the year of upheaval and survival for Alexis Tsipras, this year has been the year of the slow grind. As we near the end of 2016, Mr. Tsipras finds himself squeezed—by Germany and the International Monetary Fund, by Turkey and the refugee crisis, by his false promises and collapsing popularity—to the point of political extinction.
The Wall Street Journal
By YANNIS PALAIOLOGOS
Dec. 21, 2016 3:05 p.m. ET
4 COMMENTS
If last year was the year of upheaval and survival for Alexis Tsipras, this year has been the year of the slow grind. As we near the end of 2016, Mr. Tsipras finds himself squeezed—by Germany and the International Monetary Fund, by Turkey and the refugee crisis, by his false promises and collapsing popularity—to the point of political extinction.
Euro zone lenders confident on quick solution on Greek debt spat: source
Wed Dec 21, 2016 | 1:57pm EST
Reuters
Greece's euro zone lenders are confident a solution can be found shortly on reactivating short-term debt relief measures that were suspended after Athens decided to make an unexpected payout to poor pensioners, a euro zone source said on Wednesday.
Lenders said last week they were suspending a deal clinched earlier this month to offer Greece short-term debt relief after leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he would grant low-income pensioners a pre-Christmas payout.
Reuters
Greece's euro zone lenders are confident a solution can be found shortly on reactivating short-term debt relief measures that were suspended after Athens decided to make an unexpected payout to poor pensioners, a euro zone source said on Wednesday.
Lenders said last week they were suspending a deal clinched earlier this month to offer Greece short-term debt relief after leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he would grant low-income pensioners a pre-Christmas payout.
Greece's Debt Problem Has Reached A Dangerous Point
DEC 21, 2016 @ 07:12 PM
John Mauldin , CONTRIBUTOR
I write about how you can make sense of unpredictable markets
Before the Italian banking crisis and referendum, before Brexit… there was Greece. Greece’s debt crisis was really the first public crack in the European Union’s armor and one that has yet to be repaired.
Readers who want to understand why anti-EU sentiment and nationalism have developed in many of these countries don’t have to look at migration or other controversial topics. Simply look at Greece and how it has fared after adopting the EU’s austerity terms.
The Greek experience with austerity-linked financial support from the EU has been painful and—making matters worse—rather ineffective. While Greece is on the periphery, its problems are hardwired into the entire EU, and those problems are spreading.
John Mauldin , CONTRIBUTOR
I write about how you can make sense of unpredictable markets
Before the Italian banking crisis and referendum, before Brexit… there was Greece. Greece’s debt crisis was really the first public crack in the European Union’s armor and one that has yet to be repaired.
Readers who want to understand why anti-EU sentiment and nationalism have developed in many of these countries don’t have to look at migration or other controversial topics. Simply look at Greece and how it has fared after adopting the EU’s austerity terms.
The Greek experience with austerity-linked financial support from the EU has been painful and—making matters worse—rather ineffective. While Greece is on the periphery, its problems are hardwired into the entire EU, and those problems are spreading.
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
German Finance Minister tells paper euro zone will fall apart if don't follow rules
Tue Dec 20, 2016 | 4:52am EST
Reuters
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, asked about Greece's plans to pay pensioners a Christmas bonus while it is in the midst of a bailout program, told Die Zeit paper that the euro zone would fall apart if countries did not stick to the rules.
Reuters
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, asked about Greece's plans to pay pensioners a Christmas bonus while it is in the midst of a bailout program, told Die Zeit paper that the euro zone would fall apart if countries did not stick to the rules.
Germany’s Merkel Says Full Force of Law to Bear in Berlin Attacks
by Patrick Donahue
December 2016, 1:12 μ.μ. EET
Chancellor Angela Merkel said that German authorities were working on the assumption that the deaths of 12 people after a truck plowed into a Christmas market were a terrorist attack, and pledged to use the full force of German law to bring the perpetrators to justice.
In a nationally televised statement in Berlin, Merkel said that people across Germany were mourning after the “horrific and unimaginable” deaths and injuries sustained in the capital on Monday evening. She said she planned to tour the scene of the attack later on Tuesday.
December 2016, 1:12 μ.μ. EET
- Germans in mourning after ‘horrific and unimaginable’ attack
- Anti-immigration AfD party lays blame at Merkel’s door
Chancellor Angela Merkel said that German authorities were working on the assumption that the deaths of 12 people after a truck plowed into a Christmas market were a terrorist attack, and pledged to use the full force of German law to bring the perpetrators to justice.
In a nationally televised statement in Berlin, Merkel said that people across Germany were mourning after the “horrific and unimaginable” deaths and injuries sustained in the capital on Monday evening. She said she planned to tour the scene of the attack later on Tuesday.
Russian Ambassador Killed in Turkey by Gunman Invoking Syria
by Benjamin Harvey and Selcan Hacaoglu
20 December 2016, 6:35 π.μ. EET
Bloomberg
Russia’s ambassador was shot dead in the Turkish capital on Monday in an assassination apparently linked to Syria’s civil war, heightening tensions over a conflict that’s drawn in almost all the region’s main powers.
Andrey Karlov was shot in the back at an art exhibit in Ankara on Monday and died from his injuries, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. “Allahu akbar,” the gunman shouted, and then “don’t forget Aleppo” -- a reference to the Syrian city where mostly Islamist rebels have been defeated this month by Russian-backed government troops. The attacker, who was killed by security forces, was a 22-year-old active-duty police officer. His possible connection with organized groups is being probed, Turkey’s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said.
20 December 2016, 6:35 π.μ. EET
Bloomberg
Russia’s ambassador was shot dead in the Turkish capital on Monday in an assassination apparently linked to Syria’s civil war, heightening tensions over a conflict that’s drawn in almost all the region’s main powers.
Andrey Karlov was shot in the back at an art exhibit in Ankara on Monday and died from his injuries, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. “Allahu akbar,” the gunman shouted, and then “don’t forget Aleppo” -- a reference to the Syrian city where mostly Islamist rebels have been defeated this month by Russian-backed government troops. The attacker, who was killed by security forces, was a 22-year-old active-duty police officer. His possible connection with organized groups is being probed, Turkey’s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said.
Political Risks Leave Euro-Pound Analysts Most Divided on Record
by Anooja Debnath and Charlotte Ryan
20 - 12 - 2016, 9:54 π.μ. EET
Bloomberg
For analysts trying to plot the course of the pound against the euro in 2017, the key decision is judging which side of the English Channel will see greater political turbulence.
Strategists are trying to pinpoint whether the U.K.’s exit process from the European Union or the rise of populism in the rest of Europe carries the bigger risk. The dichotomy is evident in Bloomberg’s survey of currency analysts, where the range between the highest and lowest year-end forecasts for euro-sterling is the widest going into a new year since at least 2006.
20 - 12 - 2016, 9:54 π.μ. EET
Bloomberg
For analysts trying to plot the course of the pound against the euro in 2017, the key decision is judging which side of the English Channel will see greater political turbulence.
Strategists are trying to pinpoint whether the U.K.’s exit process from the European Union or the rise of populism in the rest of Europe carries the bigger risk. The dichotomy is evident in Bloomberg’s survey of currency analysts, where the range between the highest and lowest year-end forecasts for euro-sterling is the widest going into a new year since at least 2006.
Greece’s Long Winter
An early election would signal how much reform voters will support.
The Wall Street Journal
Dec. 19, 2016 7:11 p.m. ET
1 COMMENTS
Europe has a packed election schedule for 2017, and it’s set to grow more crowded if Greece holds another vote. The snap parliamentary poll that looks increasingly likely won’t solve the country’s economic problems, but at least the exercise would have the virtue of clarifying for Greeks and the rest of the eurozone how much reform Athens will be able to undertake.
The Wall Street Journal
Dec. 19, 2016 7:11 p.m. ET
1 COMMENTS
Europe has a packed election schedule for 2017, and it’s set to grow more crowded if Greece holds another vote. The snap parliamentary poll that looks increasingly likely won’t solve the country’s economic problems, but at least the exercise would have the virtue of clarifying for Greeks and the rest of the eurozone how much reform Athens will be able to undertake.
Friday, December 16, 2016
Opinion: Europe is failing, and Merkel can’t save it
Published: Dec 16, 2016 3:04 a.m. ET
Market Watch
Germany is at the center of both austerity economics and the refugee crisis
By
DARRELL DELAMAIDE POLITICS COLUMNIST
Europe may well have reached its tipping point and could now decline at an accelerated pace.
On top of economic stagnation from obtusely misguided austerity policies, the fabric of the European Union has been frayed by Britain’s vote last summer to exit the bloc and by Italian voters’ rejection this month of an overly ambitious constitutional reform, leading to the fall of the government and a fragile political situation.
Market Watch
Germany is at the center of both austerity economics and the refugee crisis
By
DARRELL DELAMAIDE POLITICS COLUMNIST
Europe may well have reached its tipping point and could now decline at an accelerated pace.
On top of economic stagnation from obtusely misguided austerity policies, the fabric of the European Union has been frayed by Britain’s vote last summer to exit the bloc and by Italian voters’ rejection this month of an overly ambitious constitutional reform, leading to the fall of the government and a fragile political situation.
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