MAY 4, 2015
2:00 AM EDT
By Mohamed
A. El-Erian
Bloomberg view
I have
never met or spoken to Yanis
Varoufakis , Greece 's
finance minister. Yet I feel I have gotten to know him through his writing and
interviews, and by reading about his interactions with both the official and
private sectors in Europe . That's why --
though I understand the rationale for the decision -- I was saddened last week
when Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sidelined Varoufakis from Greece ’s complicated
and consequential negotiations with its European creditors and the
International Monetary Fund.
Varoufakis
was a breath of fresh air in this protracted and exhausting Greek economic
drama, which involves alarming human costs in terms of unemployment, poverty
and lost opportunities. Backed by considerable economic logic and a desire to
do better, he pressed for more realism in the policy conditions demanded by Greece ’s
creditors. And he never tired of reminding people that Greece 's
recovery wasn't that country's responsibility alone.
His
approach to substance came with an unusual negotiating style – one that
attracted quite a bit of attention but understandably proved unpalatable to his
European partners.
Having
spent the bulk of his career in academia, Varoufakis erred toward open public
discussion and discourse. Diplomatic niceties were set aside in favor of candid
debates. Flowery introductions gave way to laser-like focus on areas of
disagreements.
Having also
been part of a government that was elected on the promise to restoring Greece 's
dignity, he had no hesitation about speaking to other European finance
ministers as an equal. And because his meetings were closely covered by the
media -- in particular those with his German counterparts -- the world was
often treated to a level of drama that hardly ever emerges from European
negotiations: accusations and counter-accusations, rebukes and unusual physical
postures.
Varoufakis
is impatient, and understandably so. Having observed the suffering of his
people for so many years because of what he believes were unguided policies, he
was ready to shake things up. Yet in his keenness to deliver a big bang
solution, he neglected the small confidence-building steps that were required.
It was
Varoufakis’s style that forced Tsipras to sideline him in response to growing
European exasperation. The final straw was the unusual level of acrimony at the
April 24 Riga Summit that spilled over into the public
domain.
Tsipras had
little choice but to replace Varoufakis as chief negotiator. His government is
running dangerously low on money, having failed to secure the release of any
financing from the European Union and the IMF. The situation is so dire that he
was forced to pass an unpopular decree enabling the government to grab the idle
official funds of local governments that aren't deposited at the central bank.
Meanwhile, the government’s payments obligations are mounting, including those
for pensions and an upcoming debt obligation to the IMF; and nervous citizens
are withdrawing more of their deposits from domestic banks, adding to the
pressures that could push a sputtering economy to a further implosion.
Varoufakis's
move to the background will increase the probability that a chilly stalemate
will give way to another Band-Aid arrangement that allows Greece to
muddle along for a little longer. But unless this time is used by the country’s
creditors to accept a truth that Varoufakis consistently tried to impose --
that Greek economic reforms, no matter how bold, won't succeed unless the
budget austerity conditions are relaxed and there is further debt relief -- the
finance minister could return to the front line.
This time,
he would have a different mission: that of seeking to restore order after a
“Graccident,” a big economic and financial accident that makes the country’s
continued membership of the euro zone almost impossible.
To contact
the author on this story:
Mohamed
El-Erian at melerian@bloomberg.net
To contact
the editor on this story:
Max Berley
at mberley@bloomberg.net
Hello my friend! I want to say that this article is amazing, nice written and include
ReplyDeleteapproximately all important infos. I'd like
to see extra posts like this .
My weblog free music downloads [http://twitter.com/Music0Downloads/status/596035206915559424]