Discord
Over Who Should Shoulder Burden of Giving Greece More Time to Repay Loans
Comes Ahead of Crucial Deadline
By BRIAN
BLACKSTONE and GABRIELE STEINHAUSER
Europe's
governments and the European Central Bank are at odds about who should shoulder
the financial burden of giving Greece
more time to repay its loans and remain part of the euro zone.
The search
for a solution for Greece, whether by forgiving some of the money it owes or
giving it yet more bailout loans, has come back to haunt the currency union
ahead of the ECB's monthly policy meeting on Thursday.
It is a
particularly sensitive issue for the ECB, which is trying to create a credible
financial backstop to hold the euro together while governments overhaul their
economies and finances.
But with
each step the ECB takes to help Greece
and others, it inches ever closer to rules that prevent it from printing money
to help governments out of their debt problems. The bank is already facing
accusations in Germany
that it is straying from its primary mandate to keep inflation low.
Governments
and the ECB are under pressure because another player in Greece 's bailout deals, the International
Monetary Fund, says it will continue supporting Athens only if there is a realistic chance
the aid can be repaid.
ECB
officials are willing to sell the central bank's Greek bondholdings for the
price it bought them, forgoing any profit, people familiar with the matter
said. But this step would meet only a fraction of Greece 's financing needs. The bulk
of the work must be done by European governments, ECB officials say.
Last week, Greece
said its debt next year will equal
nearly 190% of its gross domestic product and debt inspectors from the
European Commission, IMF and ECB say they believe that debt will still be
around 140% by 2020 without changes to the bailout program. That is far above
the 120% target set in February, when Greece 's latest bailout deal was
sealed.
A
worse-than-expected recession has put Greece 's
budget targets out of reach, and most euro-zone governments now favor giving Athens two extra years to
bring its deficit under control—a move the troika expects to cost some €30
billion ($38.5 billion). Much of this would have to come from its official
creditors as private bondholders own
just €60 billion in Greek debt after taking a large write-down earlier in
the year.
The IMF in
particular has been pushing the euro zone to reduce that debt load by writing
off some of the money the bloc has already lent Greece . But if governments were to
take a loss on some of the Greek rescue loans they would walk back on the
central promise they have made to their voters during the crisis: that the
bailouts would be paid back. Several European officials have stressed that such
debt forgiveness isn't seen as a feasible option at the moment.
IMF
Managing Director Christine Lagarde homed in on some €40 billion in Greek bonds
the ECB bought in the early days of the debt crisis in 2010, rather than
demanding governments take a loss, in a conference call last week with
euro-zone finance ministers, said a European Union official.
ECB
officials think they could legally sell bonds back to Greece without
profit or losses. The bank bought the bonds in the spring and summer of 2010 at
a discount of about 20%, meaning the transaction could yield as much as €8
billion in debt relief for Athens .
However,
this plan would require governments to lend Greece more money to buy back its
bonds from the ECB, something they have balked at doing before.
Instead,
some euro-zone governments want the ECB to ease repayment terms of the Greek
bonds, passing on the discount it got by giving Athens more time to repay them or lowering
interest rates, said European officials.
But at
October's policy meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi ruled out any
restructuring of the ECB's Greek bonds, saying it "would qualify as
monetary financing."
Some
governments also want to get Greece
to issue more short-term debt to cover some of its funding shortfall—a move
that would also require ECB consent. Greece
has to repay some €5 billion in treasury bills on Nov. 16, most of which
are owned by Greek banks but have been deposited with the Greek central bank as
collateral in return for loans.
Although
these risks reside with Greece 's
central bank, and ultimately the Greek government, the full ECB council must
approve use of that lending facility, called Emergency Liquidity Assistance.
The ECB
would probably allow the facility to be used to help roll over the maturing
T-bills, said people familiar with the matter, provided there is a political
agreement to disburse Greece 's
long-delayed €31.5 billion bailout installment.
The Greek
issue will likely overshadow the ECB's monthly interest-rate deliberations
Thursday. The central bank's main policy rate is 0.75%, a record low, leaving
room for further cuts. But ECB officials are concerned that fragmented
financial markets across the 17-member euro zone would undermine the
effectiveness of any new stimulus.
"The
view at the ECB appears to be that there's only so much monetary policy can
do" to jump-start economic growth, said Ken Wattret, economist at BNP
Paribas, BNP.FR +1.32% who expects the central bank to stand pat on rates.
Write to
Brian Blackstone at brian.blackstone@dowjones.com and Gabriele Steinhauser at
gabriele.steinhauser@wsj.com
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