The New
York Times
By RAPHAEL
MINDER
October 23,
2013
While
anticipated, the growth news will likely provide a fillip for the conservative
government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, which, since coming into office
almost two years ago, has pushed through deeply unpopular spending cuts and tax
hikes in order to comply with budgetary targets in accordance with Spain ’s
European partners.
“The worst
is over,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London , in a note
published Wednesday, noting a turnaround in net Spanish exports.
“One by
one, the euro crisis countries are returning to growth after a savage
adjustment recession,” he said, noting that Greece ,
Ireland and Portugal showed
signs of expansion earlier this year. Concerning Spain ’s prospects, Mr. Schmieding
added: “As the slide in domestic demand peters out, the ongoing surge in
exports will drive growth.”
Still, Spain is not
expected to return to precrisis growth levels for several years as it continues
to struggle with weak consumer spending and an unemployment rate of about 26
percent. Last month, the government presented its budget for 2014 based on a
forecast that the Spanish economy will grow 0.7 percent next year. Gross
domestic product is expected to contract 1.3 percent this year, according to
Mr. Rajoy’s government.
Even before
Wednesday’s data, the government trumpeted the economic turnaround. But the
fact that Spain
has been in and out of recession since 2008 has left some economists wary about
the solidity of the latest recovery.
“I still
see an economy that is very vulnerable to any perturbation, whether internal or
external,” Javier Diaz-Giménez, professor of economics at the IESE business
school, told a press briefing earlier this month.
Mr.
Diaz-Giménez noted that, assuming an annual growth rate of 1 percent, Spain would
return only in 2021 to the growth rate of early 2008 before the construction
bubble burst.
The Bank of
Spain provided the preliminary data on Wednesday. The official growth figures
are due to be published next week by the National Statistics Institute.
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