By LIZ
ALDERMAN and JACK EWINGJULY 6, 2015
The New
York Times
The growing
rift among European leaders threatens to complicate any new negotiations, as
the Greek government moves to restart talks for an international bailout. It
also adds to the pressure on Greece ,
which is close to financial collapse with both the banking system and the
government quickly running out of money.
If a deal
is not struck soon, Greece
will probably default on a batch of international debts this month and face
even more trouble paying civil servants and pensioners. Should Greece
ultimately run out of euros, it could be forced to issue a parallel currency or
i.o.u.s to pay its domestic bills, prompting it to leave the euro currency.
The
country’s financial state is growing increasingly dire.
As Greek
banks faced a shortage of cash, the European Central Bank decided on Monday to
extend just enough of an emergency lifeline to keep them from failing. But the
amount, about 89 billion euros, will not necessarily be sufficient to keep the
money flowing to depositors.
Faced with
a funding crisis, the government extended a weeklong bank holiday through
Wednesday and said that a withdrawal cap of €60, or $67, per day from A.T.M.s
could be tightened. On Monday, long lines formed again at cash machines
throughout Athens
as people continued to withdraw whatever funds they could.
Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras of Greece
has moved quickly to take advantage of the vote results, making the first steps
toward conciliation with the country’s creditors.
The
combative finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, abruptly resigned at Mr.
Tsipras’s behest. He was replaced by Euclid Tsakalotos, an Oxford-educated
economist who took over from Mr. Varoufakis as Greece ’s lead negotiator in April.
“I won’t
hide the fact that I’m nervous and anxious,” Mr. Tsakalotos said at his
swearing-in Monday. “I understand that I’m assuming my post at a difficult
time.”
The prime
minister also persuaded most opposing political parties to back his basic
demands from the country’s creditors.
After a
six-hour meeting, the leaders of Greece’s five main political parties issued a
statement saying they wanted any negotiation to include a discussion of relief
from the country’s debt load — a key sticking point with creditors. They are
also pushing for immediate help to keep the banks afloat, quick economic aid to
tackle unemployment and new bailout money to cover current debt obligations.
In return,
they said, Greece
would be willing to deliver “credible reforms based on the fair distribution of
the burden and the promotion of growth with the smallest possible recessionary
impact.”
But the
impasse over a bailout threatens to take on bigger dimensions, with
implications for European unity.
Despite Germany ’s tough
stance, other European leaders seemed eager to avoid the specter of a Greek
exit from the euro. While officials in France
and Brussels said on Monday that they were
unhappy and dumbfounded with the vote, they held the door open to the
possibility of a compromise between Greece and its creditors.
At a news
conference in Brussels on Monday, the European Commission’s vice president for
euro affairs, Valdis Dombrovskis, said that the vote in Greece would
“dramatically weaken” the country’s negotiating position with creditors and had
made things “more complicated.”
But now was
the time to seek a way forward, he added, saying: “If all sides are working
seriously, it’s possible to find a solution, even in this very complicated
situation.”
In France,
the finance minister, Michel Sapin, told French radio that while Greece’s vote
“resolves nothing,” France could support debt relief for Greece should Mr.
Tsipras come forward with a proposal containing “serious” terms for a new
bailout package. Mr. Sapin’s remarks came ahead of a meeting set for Monday
evening in Paris between President François
Hollande of France and Ms.
Merkel to discuss how to deal with Greece .
Both
leaders called on Greece
to submit urgent proposals to avoid a possible exit from the eurozone. The
Greek government said that Mr. Tsipras and Ms. Merkel agreed that he would
present new debt proposals on Tuesday, when eurozone leaders are set to meet in
Brussels .
The
eurozone finance ministers planned to meet in Brussels
on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the offer by Athens to resume discussions. They might then
pass along any recommendations to the heads of state meeting on Tuesday
evening. Because the deadline for the country’s second bailout package has
lapsed, any talks would most likely focus on the terms for a third aid package
for the country.
In the
meantime, the financial situation in Greece is rapidly growing more
tenuous.
Greek banks
could continue to limp along for a few more weeks. But they may face an
existential crisis at the end of the month if the Greek government does not
make a payment of €3.5 billion due July 20 on bonds held by the European
Central Bank. That would seem nearly impossible unless Greece gets
some financial aid.
A missed
payment to the central bank would signal unmistakably that the government is
bankrupt. It would drag the Greek banks down, too, since they would suffer huge
losses on their portfolios of the country’s government bonds.
The
European Central Bank would have little choice but to stop providing emergency
loans that have been keeping the banking system afloat. The central bank is not
allowed to lend to insolvent banks.
“The moment
of truth will be no later than July 20,” said Wilbur Ross, an American investor
who owns a large stake in Eurobank Ergasias, the third-largest bank in Greece . “A
default there would likely force the E.C.B. to come down on the banks.”
Ominously,
the central bank also said on Monday that it would tighten requirements for
collateral that Greek banks must post in return for loans. The move means that,
even if the European Central Bank decides to later increase the lending limit,
Greek banks might not have enough collateral to qualify for more emergency
cash.
The
decision, a concession to hard-liners on the central bank’s Governing Council,
was a sign the central bank is worried about losses it will suffer if Greek
banks fail.
Bankers in Athens are beginning to worry that without additional aid,
banks could run out of cash on Friday, according to Stefanos Kotronakis, who
works in Athens
for ACI Worldwide, a company that provides payment processing services for
banks and A.T.M.s.
“The
situation from a liquidity perspective is really critical,” said Mr.
Kotronakis, country manager for the company.
People can
continue to use debit and credit cards and make electronic transfers within Greece . But Mr.
Kotronakis said many merchants insist on cash, in part because they are not
sure that their money is safe in a bank.
Without a
banking system serving as a conduit for euros and a platform for transactions, Greece might
have little choice but to begin printing its own currency.
Liz
Alderman reported from Athens and Jack Ewing
from Frankfurt . Niki Kitsantonis contributed
reporting from Athens .
No comments:
Post a Comment