The Wall
Street Journal
Nov 3 2013
“…The current crisis may be Greece 's last opportunity to turn
itself into an effective modern state…”
Even After
Six Years of Recession, the Greek Government and 69% of the Public Support the
Euro
Across
Europe, there is now a broad consensus that the decision to allow Greece to join
the euro was a mistake. Yet ironically, the one place where this view is not
widely shared is Greece
itself.
Even after
six years of recession, a 26% slump in output and unemployment of 27%, the
Greek government considers membership of the single currency an article of
faith, while 69% of the public supports the euro, according to a recent poll by
the Pew Research Center .
Perhaps
this isn't so surprising. The crisis did not come out of a clear blue sky. Greece missed multiple opportunities over many
decades to fix a broken political and economic model marked by cronyism,
corruption, bureaucracy and excessive borrowing: following the overthrow of the
military dictatorship in the 1970s, when Greece joined the European Union in
the 1980s and in the run-up to joining the euro in the early 2000s.
The current crisis may be Greece 's last
opportunity to turn itself into an effective modern state.
The
government is now confident it will deliver a small primary budget surplus
before interest payments this year, a remarkable turnaround from a 15% deficit
in 2008. The current-account deficit, which was 11% in 2008, has largely been
eliminated. At the same time, unemployment appears to have stabilized and labor
costs per hour are now 30% below 2008 levels, restoring much of the
competitiveness lost over the previous decade, notes Alpha Bank.
Market sentiment is also improving. Last week,
Greek 10-year government bond yields fell below 8% for the first time since
2009. Now is not
the time, says Athens ,
for the troika to imperil this tentative stabilization with new fiscal demands.
Or as President Karolos Papoulias put it rather more bluntly in an emotive
speech last week, Greece
will not give in to "blackmail."
Similarly,
senior government officials argue that the troika needs to recognize the
challenges Athens
faces in trying to deliver reform while maintaining faith in free markets and
democracy.
Following a
political crisis earlier this year that resulted in the departure of a minor
coalition partner, the government has a wafer-thin majority. Prime Minister
Antonis Samaras's New Democracy party is running neck and neck in the polls
with Syriza, a coalition of radical left-wing parties. The far-left and
far-right currently poll up to 12% of votes. The murder on Friday of two
members of the far-right Golden Dawn party shows the situation remains
volatile.
Mr. Samaras
hopes that a combination of a recovering economy plus success in next year's
local and European Parliament elections will strengthen his position, creating
political space for wider reform, according to someone familiar with his
thinking. But for this to happen, Mr. Samaras needs the troika to give him the
benefit of the doubt.
The troika
can be forgiven for being skeptical. Memories of Mr. Samaras's two-year
populist campaign against the bailout conditions are hard to dispel. Besides,
much of the recent improvement in the economic data reflects a record tourist
season. And even this cannot obscure Greece 's lack of progress in
implementing many of its reform commitments.
The latest
tax receipts may be in line with budget forecasts, but tax evasion remains
endemic. Privatization receipts are far below target. Public-sector reforms are
proceeding at a glacial pace. An ineffective justice system remains a major
barrier to investment.
A
commitment to sack 15,000 civil servants over the next two years, with 4,000 to
be laid off by the end of 2013, has been a perennial feature of troika reviews
and still hasn't been completed.
A separate
plan to place another 25,000 into a special mobility scheme is also facing
difficulties.
Thanks to a
crude one-in-for-every-five-out rule, the civil service has been cut to 23% of
the total workforce, closer to the EU average. But it is still much too large,
resources are poorly distributed across the public administration and there are
serious quality deficiencies in some areas, acknowledge senior government
officials.
Meanwhile,
government actions may actually be hampering the prospects for recovery. A
rough-and-ready property tax helped plug the fiscal hole but slashed household
spending power and killed the housing market. At the same time, a populist ban
on banks' foreclosing on unpaid mortgages may have worsened banks' bad-debt
problems—Alpha Bank estimates up to 30% of its non-performing loans are
"strategic"—while making them even more reluctant to extend new
loans.
The
government insists the banking system is adequately capitalized. But until a
transparent clearing price is established for real estate, banks are unlikely
to attract new funding to reduce their reliance on ECB facilities and so will
remain under pressure to deleverage; that suggests the vicious credit crunch
will continue, hampering the recovery.
No doubt
the troika must make difficult judgments, balancing political pressure on all
sides to declare the Greek program a success against the need to recoup existing
loans.
But
whatever deal Athens
secures on future funding and fiscal measures, it seems unlikely that the
troika will let up the pressure for far-reaching reform: after all, to do so
would be a betrayal of all those Greeks who continue to put their faith in the
euro.
Write to
Simon Nixon at simon.nixon@wsj.com
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