The euro’s next crisis

Why an early election spells big dangers for Greece—and for the euro

The Economist

EVER since the euro crisis erupted in late 2009 Greece has been at or near its heart. It was the first country to receive a bail-out, in May 2010. It was the subject of repeated debate over a possible departure from the single currency (the so-called Grexit) in 2011 and again in 2012. It is the only euro country whose official debt has been restructured. On December 29th the Greek parliament failed to elect a president, forcing an early snap election to be called for January 25th. The euro crisis is entering a new, highly dangerous phase, and once again Greece finds itself at the centre.

European Stocks Drop as Greece’s ASE Tumbles After Vote Results

By Jonathan Morgan  Dec 29, 2014 12:41 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

European stocks extended losses after Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed in his third and final attempt to get enough backing for his presidential candidate.

Greece faces election after lawmakers fail to elect president

BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS

ATHENS Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:03am EST

(Reuters) - Greek lawmakers failed to elect a new president in a final round of voting on Monday, leaving the country facing an early election that could derail the international bailout program it needs to keep paying its bills.

Greek MPs' vote triggers snap poll

BBC 

29 December 2014 Last updated at 10:41 GMT

Greek MPs have rejected the presidential candidate nominated by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, triggering a snap general election.

Συναγερμός στην Τ.τ.Ε. για να μην ξεμείνει από ρευστό το Δημόσιο

Πηγή:www.reporter.gr

«Εκεί που πήγε να γίνει κάτι, εκεί που οι τράπεζες σχεδίαζαν αυξήσεις κεφαλαίου για μειώσουν τη συμμετοχή του κράτους στη μετοχική τους σύνθεση, εκεί που το 2015 θα χρηματοδοτούσαν την πραγματική οικονομία, γυρίζουμε πάλι στον ζόφο», υποστήριξε νωρίς το πρωί της Τετάρτης κορυφαία τραπεζική πηγή.

Συναγερμός έχει σημάνει στην Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος στην  περίπτωση που εξαιτίας της πολιτικής αβεβαιότητας δεν υπάρξει συμφωνία με τους πιστωτές και το Δημόσιο ξεμείνει από ρευστό για την κάλυψη των αναγκών του.  Περίπου δέκα μέρες μετά το sos που εξέπεμψε ο διοικητής της Τραπέζης Ελλάδος κ. Ι. Στουρνάρας προς τα κόμματα να υπάρξει συναίνεση προκειμένου να έρθει η συμφωνία με τους δανειστές, διαφορετικά η χώρα κινδυνεύει να μπει σε περιπέτειες, η διοίκηση της Κεντρικής Τράπεζας της χώρας, λαμβάνει τα μέτρα της, έστω κι αν αυτά είναι εις βάρος του εγχώριου τραπεζικού συστήματος.

Euro Seen as Shield by Lithuanian Banker Wary of Russia

By Milda Seputyte  Dec 23, 2014 12:08 PM GMT+0200

 Bloomberg

On the eve of Lithuania’s euro adoption, the Baltic country’s top banker says Russia’s actions in Ukraine have pushed him into forbidden territory.

“The euro is an instrument for our deeper integration: the closer we are to the West, the further we are from the east,” Vitas Vasiliauskas said in an interview in Vilnius, the capital. “As a central bank governor, I shouldn’t get myself involved in geopolitical discussions. But these are the facts today.”

ISIS’s Harrowing Sexual Violence Toward Yezidi Women Revealed

Tessa Berenson @tcberenson  Dec. 22, 2014

ΤΙΜΕ

ISIS is capturing Yezidi women and keeping them in sexual slavery

Militants with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have enslaved and sexually brutalized scores of women, selling them into marriage or giving them as gifts to militant fighters, according to a new report.

Since August, ISIS has captured hundreds, if not thousands of Yezidi women and girls and taken them into sexual slavery as part of an ethnic cleansing movement, the Amnesty International report says. The Yezidis are a Kurdish ethnoreligious minority group that has been historically oppressed by Sunni extremists.

Peshmerga forces heave Isis away from Mount Sinjar

As many as 300 militants are believed killed as US-led airstrikes assist the Kurdistan regional government in northern Iraq

Fazel Hawramy on Mount Sinjar

The Guardian, Sunday 21 December 2014 21.55 GMT

Kurdish peshmerga forces backed by US-led air strikes pushed Islamic State militants out of a large area around Mount Sinjar in northern Iraq, according to Kurdish officials.

“We have managed to free 3,000 sq km during the last 24 hours,” Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, told reporters on top of Mount Sinjar. “Most of Sinjar is under our control now and with the help of God, we will free all of it.”

The Kurdistan regional government mobilised close to 10,000 peshmerga fighters last week in an ongoing operation to drive Isis from the Sinjar area, which is near the Syrian border.

Euro shaky on ECB and Greece, dollar keeps edge

BY IAN CHUA AND HIDEYUKI SANO

SYDNEY/TOKYO Sun Dec 21, 2014 9:24pm EST

(Reuters) - The euro probed fresh two-year lows early on Monday in a subdued start to a holiday-shortened week, extending a multi-month trend of weakness against the dollar that many traders say will remain intact in the new year.

Speculation is high that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be forced to expand its asset-buying program to include sovereign debt in early 2015, at a time when the Federal Reserve is preparing to do the opposite and lift interest rates.

Author's journey inside ISIS: They're 'more dangerous than people realize'

By Frederik Pleitgen, CNN

December 22, 2014 -- Updated 0618 GMT (1418 HKT)

(CNN) -- Juergen Todenhoefer's journey was a tough one: dangerous, but also eye-opening. The author traveled deep into ISIS territory -- the area they now call their "caliphate" -- visiting Raqqa and Deir Ezzor in Syria, as well as Mosul in Iraq.

Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, was taken by ISIS in a Blitzkrieg-like sweep in June.

Todenhoefer managed to visit the Mosque there where the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi, gave his only ever public address.

And he saw the realities of daily life under ISIS, with all shops having to close for prayers in the middle of the day.

"There is an awful sense of normalcy in Mosul," Todenhoefer said in an exclusive interview with CNN.

Will Pakistan’s grief force it to cut ties with Islamic militants?

By Matthew Green December 17, 2014

Pakistan’s army knew it would pay a price when it launched an offensive in the mountains of North Waziristan. But even in their worst imaginings, few officers could have foreseen the way revenge would be served: an attack on an Army-run school that cost the lives of 132 students. Many were the teenage sons of soldiers.

Here’s why oil companies should be a lot more profitable than they are

By Anatole Kaletsky December 5, 2014

Reuters

The 40 percent plunge in oil prices since July, when Brent crude peaked at $115 a barrel, is almost certainly good news for the world economy; but it is surely a crippling blow for oil producers. Oil prices below $70 certainly spell trouble for U.S. and Canadian shale and tar-sand producers and also for oil-exporting countries such as Venezuela, Nigeria, Mexico and Russia that depend on inflated oil revenues to finance government spending or pay foreign debts. On the other hand, the implications of lower oil prices for the biggest U.S. and European oil companies are more ambiguous and could even be positive.

RPT-INSIGHT-Greek premier prepared European ground before vote gamble

Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:08am EST

* Early presidential vote surprised Greek establishment

* But Samaras discussed plans with Berlin, Brussels

* Government candidate falls short in first round

* Previous premier caused uproar with referendum plan

By Renee Maltezou and Lefteris Papadimas

ATHENS, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has bet on Greece's future with an early vote for the presidency. But in contrast to a recent predecessor, he made sure before dropping the bombshell that Berlin and Brussels wouldn't stand in the way.

Greek political fallout a worry, but financial contagion seen limited

BY JAN STRUPCZEWSKI

BRUSSELS Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:03am EST

(Reuters) - Five years after Greece sparked a sovereign debt crisis that threatened the euro's survival, the country again has the potential to rattle its currency partners if Greeks have to elect a new government next month.

David Ignatius: A U.S.-China ‘reset’?

The Washington Post

By David Ignatius Opinion writer December 16 at 7:11 PM

This year began with some Chinese and American foreign-policy analysts looking back a century to World War I and wondering if confrontation was inevitable between a rising power and a dominant one. But now there has been progress on climate, trade and security issues and what seems a modest “reset” of the Sino-American relationship.

Future disagreements between the United States and China are inevitable. But the surprise of a high-level dialogue here last weekend was the interest by both sides in exploring what the Chinese like to call “win-win” cooperation.

Greece still several steps from chaos

By Hugo Dixon December 15, 2014

By Hugo Dixon

Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own.

Reuters

Greece is still several steps from chaos. Athens has entered a period of political instability, which could lead to an election won by Syriza. This radical left group’s policies might prompt Greece’s exit from the euro if fully implemented. But for this to happen, a series of unfortunate circumstances have to occur.

Greece and the euro

Crisis revisited

The Economist

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21636036-euro-still-vulnerable-and-greece-not-only-problem-crisis-revisited

The euro is still vulnerable, and Greece is not the only problem

Dec 13th 2014

IT WAS almost exactly five years ago that the euro crisis erupted, starting in Greece. Investors who had complacently let all euro-zone countries borrow at uniformly low levels abruptly woke up to the riskiness of an incompetent government borrowing money in a currency which it could not depreciate. There is thus a dismal symmetry in seeing the euro crisis flare up again in the place where it began.

Greece and the euro

Crisis revisited

The Economist

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21636036-euro-still-vulnerable-and-greece-not-only-problem-crisis-revisited

The euro is still vulnerable, and Greece is not the only problem

Dec 13th 2014

IT WAS almost exactly five years ago that the euro crisis erupted, starting in Greece. Investors who had complacently let all euro-zone countries borrow at uniformly low levels abruptly woke up to the riskiness of an incompetent government borrowing money in a currency which it could not depreciate. There is thus a dismal symmetry in seeing the euro crisis flare up again in the place where it began.

The euro is heading for disaster - what luck for David Cameron!

The final unwinding of the disastrous single currency could give Britain everything it wants from Europe

By Peter Oborne

6:00AM GMT 10 Dec 2014

As Karl Marx was one of the earliest to point out, economics (though so much less interesting) is far more important than politics.

Marx considered all political events as epiphenomena. He viewed great men as blind instruments of irresistible forces which they themselves could hardly comprehend.

The Marxist vision of society has been disproved many times, always at epic human cost. However, his doctrine that productive forces propel history has stood the test of time – and is invaluable for an understanding of the current predicament of the European Union

Γιατί ψήφισα "όχι" στην τροπολογία για τον Ρωμανό

11/12/2014

13:13

Από τον ιστότοπο Capital.gr

http://www.capital.gr/gmessages/showTopic.asp?id=4731017

του Αδώνιδος Γεωργιάδη

Χθες η Βουλή ομοφώνως ψήφισε την αλλαγή του Νόμου χορηγήσεως εκπαιδευτικών αδειών των Φυλακισμένων, για να πειστεί ο κ. Νίκος Ρωμανός να σταματήσει την απεργία πείνας την οποία είχε ξεκινήσει. Ομοφώνως; Όχι! Τρεις βουλευτές –τουλάχιστον- ο Θάνος Πλεύρης, ο Γιάννης Καράμπελας (για τον οποίον δεν έγινε ευρύτερα γνωστό) και εγώ ψηφίσαμε Όχι! Οφείλω λοιπόν μία δημόσια εξήγηση του γιατί αποφάσισα τουλάχιστον εγώ «να χαλάσω» αυτήν την «γιορτινή» ατμόσφαιρα εθνικής συνεννοήσεως που ζήσαμε χθες.

Και για λόγους Αρχής αλλά και για λόγους ουσίας λοιπόν καταψήφισα μία τροπολογία που –μακάρι να βγω ψεύτης-

Euro weakens on fears of political instability in Greece

BY ANIRBAN NAG

LONDON Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:09am EST

(Reuters) - The euro fell broadly on Wednesday amid growing concerns over the political situation in Greece that could increase the chances of monetary policy easing early next year by the European Central Bank.

The euro was down 0.5 percent against the yen at 147.40 EURJPY= and gave up early gains against the dollar to trade slightly lower on the day at $1.2370 EUR=. The common currency had risen to a high of $1.2448 on Tuesday as investors trimmed long dollar positions, booking profits ahead of the year-end.

Ο Τσίπρας και τα... φύκια για μεταξωτές κορδέλες!

http://www.euro2day.gr/specials/opinions/article/1283180/o-tsipras-kai-ta-fykia-gia-metaxotes-kordeles.htmlhttp://www.euro2day.gr/specials/opinions/article/1283180/o-tsipras-kai-ta-fykia-gia-metaxotes-kordeles.html

Αθανάσιος Χ. Παπανδρόπουλος

Είναι ξεκάθαρο από το οικονομικό πρόγραμμα του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ ότι θέλει να προσφέρει στην διαπλοκή αυτά που η τελευταία έχασε από τα μνημόνια. Όμως τώρα «λεφτά δεν υπάρχουν». Γράφει ο Αθαν. Χ. Παπανδρόπουλος.

«Στην Ελλάδα, ο κ. Αλ. Τσίπρας έχει ταχθεί κατά οποιασδήποτε μεταρρύθμισης και δεν θέλει περικοπές στον προϋπολογισμό, παραμένοντας στο πλευρό των συμφερόντων». Αυτά, μεταξύ άλλων, επισημαίνει στην γνωστή αμερικανική οικονομική εφημερίδα Wall Street Journal ο αρθρογράφος της, Σάιμον Νίξον, που κάθε άλλο παρά τυχαίο πρόσωπο είναι. Προφανώς δε, ο Αμερικανός αρθρογράφος δείχνει να γνωρίζει πολύ καλά την ελληνική πραγματικότητα, η οποία, σήμερα, για μιαν ακόμη φορά, «προκαλεί ανησυχίες στις αγορές».

German finmin: Greece may get credit line in Feb, no new money needed

BRUSSELS Tue Dec 9, 2014 10:02am EST

Dec 9 (Reuters) - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Tuesday that a credit line may be made available to Greece at the end of February but no fresh money would be needed.

"Greece has asked for an extension of the (bailout) programme," Schaeuble told reporters after a meeting of European finance ministers in Brussels.

"The application will be limited to an extension of two months - we will put this to the Bundestag in the next week of parliament, discuss it and hopefully agree it. If other member states agree, we will get an extension. Then it may come to a credit line in February, but we don't need new money," he said. (Reporting by Tom Koerkemeier; Writing by Madeline Chambers in Berlin)

Greece Turns Triumph Into Tragedy

Six Months Ago, Greece Seemed Past the Worst: The Mood Today Is Different

http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-turns-triumph-into-tragedy-1417988877

The Wall Street Journal

By SIMON NIXON

Dec. 7, 2014 4:47 p.m. ET

Greece’s latest drama has the potential to turn into a tragedy. Six months ago, the country seemed to be past the worst and there was widespread optimism among policy makers and the markets that the overhauls had laid the foundations for an investment- and export-led recovery.

Greek Government Bonds Drop as Presidency Vote Brought Forward

By David Goodman  Dec 9, 2014 11:27 AM GMT+0200

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/greek-government-bonds-drop-as-presidency-vote-brought-forward.html

Bloomberg

Greek bonds fell, with the nation’s 10-year yield climbing the most in almost six weeks, amid speculation that early Presidential elections will trigger renewed political turmoil.

German bunds advanced, with the nation’s 30-year yield dropping to a record low on demand for the safest assets as stocks and crude oil tumbled. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras yesterday brought forward the process of choosing a new head of state to this month, a move that risks triggering parliamentary elections in the nation, which returned to the bond market this year. Anti-bailout group Syriza, which currently leads in opinion polls, welcomed the announcement.

Greek gamble

By Mike Peacock December 9, 2014

 Reuters

http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2014/12/09/greek-gamble/

The Greek government has taken a huge gamble, bringing forward by two months to next a week a parliamentary vote on a new president. Two further rounds of voting will be held before the year-end.

A super majority is required for the government’s pick so Prime Minister Antonis Samaras needs to secure the backing of about 25 lawmakers who are not in his coalition. If he falls short, he will be forced to call a snap election that opinion polls suggest left-wing anti-bailout Syriza would win.

Greece Needs Debt Forgiveness

February 13, 2014

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-13/europe-should-extend-greece-some-debt-relief

Greece and its creditors are wrestling with the country’s debts yet again. In 2010, Greece was given one of the biggest bailout programs in history. It got new lending in return for fiscal austerity, but its debts weren’t reduced: Creditors were spared any write-offs. Experts objected that the program put too big a burden on Greek taxpayers, was neither politically nor economically sustainable, and would need creditors to absorb some losses. They were right then, and they still are.

It's Time to Start Paying Attention to Greece Again

By Joe Weisenthal  December 08, 2014

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-08/its-time-to-start-paying-attention-to-greece-again

It’s been awhile since Greece was front-page news, so here’s a refresher: A few years ago, it looked as though Greece might be forced to leave the euro zone, as investors lost faith in the country’s ability to pay its debts. In late 2011, 10-year Greek bonds were trading with a yield around 35 percent. The crisis began to dissipate in the summer of 2012, when the center-right New Democracy party eked out the narrowest of election victories and cobbled together a coalition that agreed to a bailout under harsh terms. Since then financial markets have eased considerably, although the economy is still in the gutter.

Turkey, Greece to Develop Economic Ties Despite Differences

Renewed Tensions Over Gas Fields Off Cyprus

The Wall Street Journal

By STELIOS BOURAS

Dec. 6, 2014 8:22 a.m. ET

ATHENS—Greece and Turkey confirmed Saturday their commitment to developing economic ties between the two countries but admitted to disputes over energy and Cyprus separating the two sides.

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Saturday wound up a two-day trip to the Greek capital Athens where he attended a forum on confidence-building measures between the two countries that have nearly gone to war three times in the last four decades.

Σοκ στην Υγεία: «Επιδημία» πλαστών πτυχίων τινάζει στον αέρα τα νοσοκομεία

http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=26510&subid=2&pubid=113404354

Από την εφημερίδα Ημερησία

Της Ελένης Πετροπούλου

Μπροστά σε μία επαπειλούμενη «επιδημία» πλαστών πτυχίων κινδυνεύει να βρεθεί το ΕΣΥ, με την ολοκλήρωση του ελέγχου των τίτλων γιατρών και εργαζομένων στην Υγεία. Ήδη οι αρμόδιες υπηρεσίες έχουν εντοπίσει σημαντικό αριθμό εργαζομένων με πλαστούς τίτλους ξένων γλωσσών, για τους οποίους μάλιστα λάμβαναν και ειδικά επιδόματα.

Στα «δίχτυα» βρίσκονται και πολλοί γιατροί οι οποίοι, για λόγους αδιευκρίνιστους, δεν έχουν παρουσιάσει το πτυχίο τους, καθώς και γιατροί των οποίων οι τίτλοι σπουδών ελέγχονται για τη γνησιότητά τους. Μάλιστα, στο Σώμα Επιθεωρητών Υγείας βρίσκεται σε εξέλιξη έλεγχος σε τουλάχιστον τέσσερις γιατρούς, οι οποίοι έχουν καταθέσει πτυχία από Ιταλία και Ρουμανία και υπάρχουν καταγγελίες ότι δεν είναι γνήσια.

Ωστόσο, ο έλεγχος δεν φαίνεται να αποδίδει καρπούς σε όλες τις περιπτώσεις, καθώς κάποιες καταγγελίες μπαίνουν στο συρτάρι! Χαρακτηριστική είναι η περίπτωση μεγάλου φορέα του οποίου ο πρόεδρος και μέλη του Δ.Σ. δεν έχουν προσκομίσει τα πιστοποιητικά γλωσσομάθειας. Μάλιστα, εργαζόμενοι στον συγκεκριμένο φορέα υποστηρίζουν ότι οι συνομιλίες με την τρόικα γίνονται με τη βοήθεια παλαιότερου μέλους του Δ.Σ., ενώ τα κείμενα στην αγγλική γλώσσα τα έχουν αναλάβει δύο υπάλληλοι.

COLUMN-China is the elephant in the situation room

Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:43pm GMT

 http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/12/24/bremmer-china-idUKL1E8NO3DF20121224

(Reuters) - Earlier this month the U.S. National Intelligence Council released its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report - a document that comes out once per presidential administration - mapping out likely geopolitical trends over the next two decades or so. As usual, it's a must-read, offering comprehensive analysis of the disparate factors that will drive global politics through 2030.

Further, the NIC took bold steps to correct some previous weaknesses in past reports. In the past the report nailed the "what" more often than the "when." That is particularly the case with its treatment of the United States, for which "past works assumed U.S. centrality." This time around the NIC sets an increasingly "multi-polar world" - which I call the G-Zero - as the backdrop of its report, acknowledging that the lack of global leadership has accelerated in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. America's status as a "hegemonic power" is eroding, and no country is likely to take its place.

China's Economy: Don’t Bet on Beijing

A recent report makes clear the enormous challenges facing China’s economy.

The Diplomat

http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/chinas-economy-dont-bet-on-beijing/

By Sam Winter-Levy

December 02, 2014

The Financial Times recently reported that China has wasted nearly $7 trillion since the global financial crisis. According to research by China’s state planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, “ineffective investment” made up nearly half the total amount invested in the Chinese economy since 2009. The soaring ranks of empty skyscrapers and residential complexes that crowd the skylines of so many of China’s third- and fourth-tier cities are the most obvious sign of this prodigality, although alongside extraordinary levels of misallocated capital, billions of dollars of post-crisis stimulus has simply disappeared into the opaque pockets of Communist Party officials. Following the widely hailed conclusion of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum earlier this month in Beijing, where Chinese President Xi Jinping insisted once again on a “new type of great-power relations” between the United States and a rising China, these reports of waste on an immense scale should be a salutary reminder of the extent of the challenges the Chinese Communist Party faces before any supposedly inevitable transition of global power takes place.