COVID-19: What we must do to prevent a global depression

Klaus Schwab Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
12-15 minutes

No diagrams & photos, original in the link.
Without a vaccine or effective COVID-19 treatment, we could face continued infections and death until at least the end of 2020.
To prevent further spread of coronavirus, we must monitor what fraction of the population has been in contact with the virus and is potentially immune.
To prevent an economic collapse, governments will need to take on large and unprecedented roles in securing business continuity and jobs.
A few months in, it is still hard to grasp the scale and scope of COVID-19’s global impact. A third of the world population is under some sort of “lockdown.” Over 200 countries are affected, and the number of new cases and deaths in many places are still growing exponentially. All the while, a second crisis, in the form of an economic recession, is underway.

Boris Johnson’s Unconservative Party

From Economist.com

print-edition iconPrint edition | LeadersSep 7th 2019

4-5 minutes
BORIS JOHNSON has been Conservative leader for little more than a month, and until this week had appeared in Parliament as prime minister only once. But that did not stop him carrying out the biggest purge in the party’s history on September 3rd. After a backbench rebellion led to a resounding defeat of his uncompromising Brexit policy, 21 moderate Conservative MPs, including seven former cabinet members and a grandson of Winston Churchill, had the whip withdrawn and were told they would not be allowed to stand as Tories at the next election.

It was the most dramatic step in a long process: the transformation of Britain’s ruling party from conservatives into radical populists. The capture of the Tories by fanatics determined to pursue a no-deal Brexit has caused the party to abandon the principles by which it has governed Britain for most of the past century. With an election looming, and the Labour opposition captured by an equally radical hard-left, the Tories’ sinister metamorphosis is terrible news.

The wildcat goldminers doomed by their toxic trade

www.reuters.com
By TIM COCKS and DAVID LEWIS
16-20 minutes

BAWDIE, Ghana – A few years after coming as a teenager to this Ghanaian town to prospect for gold, Yaw Ngoha had made enough cash to marry his sweetheart and build a house with a porch, to which he would later add a flat-screen TV and satellite dish.

So when a town elder invited a doctor to talk to miners about the hazards of wildcat mining, “nobody listened,” said the 36-year-old, sitting on a wooden bench on his porch in a lush banana grove.

“We needed money.”

Since Ngoha started prospecting in the early 2000s, more and more people like him have helped Ghana grow into Africa’s biggest gold producer. Across the continent and beyond, millions have turned to the trade. Few are deterred by the risks.

Ngoha’s friends and family members started to sicken and die, but he told himself this had nothing to do with the amount of dust they’d been breathing in or the toxins – including mercury and nitric acid – they used to extract the gold.

One morning in 2016, Ngoha started coughing up blood. It felt like his airways were collapsing. His doctor treated him for tuberculosis.

Exclusive: Fake-branded bars slip dirty gold into world markets

www.reuters.com
Peter Hobson
13-16 minutes
LONDON (Reuters) - A forgery crisis is quietly roiling the world’s gold industry.
July 5, 2019. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

Gold bars fraudulently stamped with the logos of major refineries are being inserted into the global market to launder smuggled or illegal gold, refining and banking executives tell Reuters. The fakes are hard to detect, making them an ideal fund-runner for narcotics dealers or warlords.

In the last three years, bars worth at least $50 million stamped with Swiss refinery logos, but not actually produced by those facilities, have been identified by all four of Switzerland’s leading gold refiners and found in the vaults of JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the major banks at the heart of the market in bullion, said senior executives at gold refineries, banks and other industry sources.

Turkey's turmoil and how it measures up against other emerging markets

JULY 12, 2018 / 7:57 PM / UPDATED 18 HOURS AGO
Marc Jones
5 MIN READ

LONDON (Reuters) - Turkey’s financial markets are being battered. The lira is at a record low after slumping more than 20 percent this year, Istanbul’s stock market has just had its worst day in over two years and investors are dumping the country’s bonds.

Below are a series of graphics that illustrate the scale of the turmoil and show how Turkish assets now compare to those in other heavyweight emerging markets.

Greece Kicks Off $3.6 Billion Program for Solar, Wind Projects

Bloomberg
30 Απριλίου 2018, 4:40 μ.μ. EEST
First auction on July 2 for 600 megawatts of wind and solar
Country seeks 18 percent renewable power consumption by 2020

Greece is preparing to auction 2.6 gigawatts of solar and wind projects to attract investment and beef up the Mediterranean country’s clean-energy credentials.

“From now on renewable energy production and prices will be determined by competitive tender process,” said Energy Minister George Stathakis. The “move should encourage investments in renewable energy of 2.5 billion to 3 billion euros, especially in wind.”

The government published the final rules for its first competitive tenders, which outline the timeline and size of the projects that will awarded. The first tender will be held July 2 and will hand out permits to build 300 megawatts of wind power and 300 megawatts of solar photovoltaics. The shift to auctions from feed-in-tariffs follows a move most renewable markets have made.

Tsipras Fights on All Fronts as Greece Back in the Spotlight

By Elena Chrepa
16 Απριλίου 2018, 8:00 π.μ. EEST Updated on 16 Απριλίου 2018, 3:20 μ.μ. EEST
Economy remains priority in the final race to bailout exit...
...But concerns rising on Turkey, Macedonia, looming election

Bloomberg

Consider what Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is up against.

As Greece prepares to free itself from an eight-year European bailout, its 43 year-old premier is confronting challenges at home and abroad. On the domestic front: preparations for post-bailout economic life and the first general election since the end of the program, including feuds with both allies and rivals. On the foreign-policy front: increased tensions with traditional rival Turkey and regional instability stemming from a dispute over a neighboring country’s name.

Tsipras’s ability to navigate through all this could determine just how stable the country and its region will be in coming years, experts say, and the European Union, the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are all watching with interest.

“The wo

Uber to suspend service in Greece after new legislation

APRIL 5, 2018 / 11:10 AM / 8 DAYS AGO
Reuters Staff

3 MIN READ

ATHENS (Reuters) - Ride-hailing service Uber said on Thursday it would suspend its licensed service in Greece after the approval of local legislation which imposes stricter regulation on the sector.

Uber, which operates a licensed service in the Greek capital, has faced opposition from local taxi drivers who accuse it of taking their business.

“New local regulations were voted on recently with provisions that impact ride-sharing services,” Uber said in a blog post. “We have to assess if and how we can operate within this new framework and so will be suspending uberX in Athens from next Tuesday until we can find an appropriate solution.”

Uber operates two services in Athens: UberX, which uses professional licensed drivers, and UberTAXI, which uses taxi drivers.

UPDATE 2-Turkey's Erdogan lashes out at investors over tumbling lira

APRIL 12, 2018 / 2:29 PM / UPDATED 18 HOURS AGO
Reuters Staff

3 MIN READ

(Adds graphic, central bank governor)

By Tuvan Gumrukcu

ANKARA, April 12 (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan lashed out at international investors on Thursday, saying that no one could use exchange rates to bring the country to heel - casting a slide in value of its currency, the lira, as a foreign conspiracy.

His comments came after the lira plumbed record lows for five straight trading days, a sell-off that Erdogan and his ministers called an economic attack by outside forces.

The lira’s slide - it is down 8 percent against the dollar so far this year, one of the worst performances among emerging markets - reflects the gulf between Erdogan and international investors over monetary policy. Erdogan, an economic populist and a self-described “enemy of interest rates” wants to see lower borrowing costs despite double-digit inflation.

“Do not worry, Turkey continues on its path with determined steps, nobody can discipline us based on exchange rates,” he said in a speech in Ankara. “The rise in exchange rates has no reasonable, logical or by-the-book explanation.”

Economists say the lira’s slide is a reflection of entrenched inflation and wage growth and that interest rates needs to be raised to arrest its fall.

The lira was at 4.0970 to the dollar at 1321 GMT. On Wednesday, it set a record low of 4.1944. It was trading at 5.0475 against the euro after reaching a record low of 5.1914 on Wednesday.

The lira has faced some pressure from growing tension between the United States and neighbouring Syria and from a sell-off in the Russian rouble, the currency of a major trading partner and a fellow emerging-market heavyweight. But investors say most of Turkey’s problems are home-grown.

Markets are looking ahead to the central bank’s next policy-setting meeting on April 25. The bank’s reluctance to raise rates at its last two meetings has heightened the perception that it is less than independent.

The central bank is following developments in inflation and will tighten monetary policy further if that is deemed necessary, the governor of the central bank, Murat Cetinkaya, said on Thursday, comments that appeared to give the currency some relief.

Data released on Wednesday showed the current account - a broadly defined measure of trade that includes services and investment income - recorded a deficit of $4.152 billion in February.

That was less than the $4.2 billion forecast in a Reuters poll but an increase of more than 60 percent from the same period a year earlier. Analysts said it affirmed Turkey’s vulnerabilities on the balance of payments front.

Additional reporting by Nevzat Devranoglu in Ankara and Ezgi Erkoyun in Istanbul; writing by David Dolan; editing by Robin Pomeroy, Larry King

Hedge Fund Sees Juice in Greek Rally as Yields Hit 2006 Low

By Todd White  and Sid Verma
9 Ιανουαρίου 2018, 3:59 μ.μ. EET Updated on 9 Ιανουαρίου 2018, 6:43 μ.μ. EET
Convergence trade remains favorite of Algebris Investments
Borrowing costs drop as traders eye recovery, end of bailout

One of Western Europe’s most dramatic bond-convergence trades this decade -- Greece over Germany -- looks like it will reward investors yet again in 2018.

London hedge fund Algebris Investments is among those betting economic momentum will take the country’s borrowing costs even closer to Germany’s after the Mediterranean country’s 10-year yield spread narrowed by about 44 basis points this month alone. Algebris says it may shrink by as much as 75 basis points.

Greece’s Olive Oil Industry Offers a Lesson on Economic Hurdles

The country is a major producer of ‘green gold,’ but sells much of it in bulk
The Wall Street Journal

By Nektaria Stamouli | Photographs by Andrea DiCenzo for The Wall Street Journal
Dec. 18, 2017 5:30 a.m. ET
106 COMMENTS
STREFI, Greece—Workers at Yiannis Skiadas ’ mountainside mill pressed prized Kalamata olives on a recent day to extract the thick, fragrant oil known regionally as “green gold”—most of which would get shipped abroad in bulk and blended into Italian olive oil.

Mr. Skiadas could earn almost three times as much by branding his oil and selling it himself. But that would require investing in every step from cultivation to marketing, and quick cash from Italian customers is appealing after a decade of economic pain in Greece.

“Thank God for the Italians,” he said.

Greek olive oil should be a shining example of the country’s export sector. Instead, it offers a lesson in why Greece remains deeply uncompetitive despite years of pressure to fix its economy.Greece has what should be significant competitive advantages, including a climate that is favorable for agriculture and a 22% drop in labor costs since 2010, around the start of the Greek debt crisis.

But the country has been unable to leverage its low cost base to pull itself out of economic malaise. The value of Greek exports fell last year, despite years of efforts aimed at promoting export-led growth. Just 2.5% of Greek enterprises are involved in export activity, according to a recent survey by Ernst & Young.

Bank lending is scarce in a country mired in debt. And Greece’s notoriously inefficient bureaucracy makes it time-consuming to secure health and safety approvals and export paperwork, according to Greek exporters.

Similar problems affect other Greek agricultural products from peaches to wine. Exports of textiles and household appliances have also slipped in recent years.

The failure of Greece’s olive-oil makers to break into the international market for branded oil is especially painful. Greece is the world’s No. 3 producer of olive oil, according to Eurostat, but just 4% of branded olive oil sold world-wide is Greek, according to a 2015 report by the National Bank of Greece .

The reason: Greek olive-oil producers have mostly stuck to making bulk oil, unable or unwilling to invest in making the branded product that can command lofty prices in foreign markets. Only 27% of Greek olive oil is exported as a branded product, compared with 50% from Spain and 80% from Italy.

“Greece hasn’t invested to create a brand name, as have Italy and Spain,” says Christina Sakellaridi, who heads the Greek Exporters Association. “Now it’s difficult to compete with them.”

By sticking with bulk oil rather than branded oil, Greece is forgoing about €250 million ($294 million) in revenue each year, according to the National Bank of Greece report, money the capital-starved country desperately needs.

Many Greek olive farms and mills are family-operated and have fewer than 10 employees, according to olive-growers’ associations. Their small size leaves them with little of the money and management skill needed to upgrade their products and establish a brand name.

For those who do invest, the payoff can be significant. Before the crisis, Georgios Skarpalezos sank money into new machinery for his mill. Now he makes extra virgin olive oil that he sells in, among other places, London’s Harrods department store. He makes as much as €4 a liter, while a middleman, usually an oil-mill owner, might make as little as 10 to 20 euro cents a liter on bulk oil.

“I cannot produce huge quantities, because I have to focus on the quality of the product,” said Mr. Skarpalezos, showing dark glass bottles designed to safeguard the oil.

Olive-oil producers also often need to import products such as Mr. Skarpalezos’ glass bottles and plastic caps.

Turkey's 11% Economic Growth Fuels Expectations of Rate Hike

By Selcan Hacaoglu
11 Δεκεμβρίου 2017, 9:29 π.μ. EET Updated on 11 Δεκεμβρίου 2017, 1:45 μ.μ. EET

Turkey’s economy grew faster in the third quarter than any other of the world’s 20 biggest economies as household spending and exports surged, stoking expectations that the central bank will increase borrowing costs to curb inflation.

Gross domestic product expanded 11.1 percent in the three months to Sept. 30 from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than six years, according to official data released on Monday. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey was 8.5 percent.

Western media is still wrong. China will continue to rise.

By Eric Li October 24 at 2:28 PM

The Washington Post

SHANGHAI — As the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China draws to a close, analysts are parsing through President Xi Jinping’s 30,000-plus-word report — delivered in a three-and-a-half-hour address without breaks — to decipher the direction of the most populous nation in the world. It is a laborious effort, especially considering the report’s extensive official jargon and policy details.

But there is a much easier way. Read The Economist’s coverage of the congress, which is considerably shorter in length, and bet on the opposite being true. Let me explain.

China’s leader Xi Jinping declares the start of a “new era”

It sounds much like the old one—only more so

The Economist

Oct 21st 2017 | BEIJING
IN THE days before the opening on October 18th of the Chinese Communist Party’s quinquennial congress, the country’s security officials put their surveillance efforts into overdrive. On Chang’an Avenue, the boulevard that passes by the venue in Tiananmen Square, naked flames were banned. Tough luck for restaurants, family dinners and smokers. Out-of-towners driving to the capital were stopped at checkpoints and made to sign papers promising not to get into trouble during the week of the congress. Foreigners were barred from travelling to Tibet. The region is well over 1,000 miles from the capital, but the party fears that even a lone banner-waving separatist sympathiser that far away could spoil the event in Beijing.

Merkel’s Problem: Booming German Economy Is So 20th Century

Low unemployment and high exports are masking a backlog in technology and investment.
By Rainer Buergin  and Tony Czuczka
Bloomberg

20 Σεπτεμβρίου 2017, 6:00 π.μ. EEST
Germany’s steady economy is a boon for Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks a fourth term on Sunday. Even the diesel-vehicle emissions scandal is barely denting national pride in German high-end manufacturing. Yet a closer look reveals a backlog in 21st-century benchmarks such as broadband and education, pointing to costly catch-up efforts facing the next government. 

Greece to Beat Budget Target, Plans More Bonds-Finance Ministry Official

By REUTERS
SEPT. 13, 2017, 7:48 A.M. E.D.T.

ATHENS — Greece expects a larger-than-targeted primary budget surplus this year and plans to tap bond markets again within seven months, a senior finance ministry official said on Wednesday.

Athens is keen to quickly conclude a third bailout review with its international creditors, helping smooth its return to market financing, as its rescue programme ends next August.

Greece returned to bond markets for the first time in three years in July. It sold 3 billion euros of new five-year bonds alongside a tender to buy back outstanding 5-year paper issued in 2014.

Greece: Where Literally Sitting on Goldmine Is Not Enough to Make Money

By Sotiris Nikas , Paul Tugwell , and Danielle Bochove
11 Σεπτεμβρίου 2017, 3:50 μ.μ. EEST 11 Σεπτεμβρίου 2017, 8:31 μ.μ. EEST

Bloomberg

“Irrespective of what will happen next, the damage for Greece as an investment destination is done and it is very significant,”

Eldorado Gold Corp. has put Greece on the spot.

The Canadian mining company’s decision on Monday to suspend all its operations in Greece, citing delays in acquiring routine permits, puts the Syriza government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in a difficult position. Eldorado Gold is the largest foreign investor in Greece and its decision comes as the country, which is working on creating a sustainable path to exit its bailout program, tries to lure foreign investments.

UPDATE 1-Greece's Eurobank, Piraeus profitable in Q2, bad debt levels ease

AUGUST 30, 2017 / 7:43 PM / 15 HOURS AGO
Reuters Staff
4 MIN READ
* Eurobank posts 8.8 percent rise in Q2 profit

* Non-performing loans ease to 34.6 pct of book

* Piraeus Bank swings to 7 mln euro profit in Q2 (Adds Eurobank, Piraeus CEOs comment, details)

By George Georgiopoulos

ATHENS, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Greece’s Eurobank reported a sixth straight quarterly profit on Wednesday and Piraeus Bank swung back into the black, pointing to a recovery from the nation’s economic crisis as banks slowly reduce their pile of bad debts.

Greek banks have been struggling with problem loan portfolios after a protracted recession pushed unemployment to record highs, making it hard for borrowers to service debts.

How EU Reckons Greece Can Make a Successful Return to Markets

By REUTERSJULY 18, 2017, 10:51 A.M. E.D.T.
Continue reading the main storyShare This BRUSSELS — Greece's imminent return to markets will be a step towards a successful exit from its euro zone-funded bailout programme, but it will not be an overnight change.

The New York Times

The process, European Union officials say, will require a series of successful bond sales and the build-up of a "sizeable" cash buffer.

Euro zone creditors are keen to see Athens develop a strategy to tap the markets well before the end of its current 86-billion-euro financial aid programme, so that when the bailout expires in August 2018 the country will be more likely to stand on its own feet.

Despite Economic Problems, Greece's Tourism Looking Good In 2017

JUN 5, 2017, 11:23 AM

Lea Lane ,   CONTRIBUTOR

Forbes

The past few years have been tough ones for the Greek economy and for its tourism industry. As a traveler who has written two guidebooks on Greece, I've felt sure that tourism there would eventually bounce back, but when?

News is good: The Greek National Tourism Organization (GNTO) announced that it expects a record-breaking 30 million international visitors to Greece for 2017. This represents a growth rate of 7%, or an additional 2 million additional visitors over the previous year. 900,000 U.S. travelers are expected to visit the country this year.