Fed and Greece Could Defy the 2016 Bears

18 DEC 22, 2015 2:00 AM EST

By Mark Gilbert

Bloomberg

One of the pitfalls of market-watching, whether for professional strategists or journalistic scribblers, is a tendency to accentuate the negative. (I'm ignoring sell-side equity analysts, whose preordained bullishness is largely indifferent to the economic backdrop.) Gloom, doom and misfortune are more interesting than cheerful optimism. And I'm as guilty as the next financial soothsayer.

But it's often a good idea to try to take an opposing view, no matter how compelling the evidence for pessimism is (here's an excellent roundup of worries from Dave Collum, who combines a passion for markets with his day job as professor of organic chemistry at Cornell University). So here are my two outside bets on what could go right on the biggest financial issues that we're carrying into 2016:

Turkey Moves to Clamp Down on Border, Long a Revolving Door

By TIM ARANGODEC. 22, 2015

The New York Times

IZMIR, Turkey — The Turkish Coast Guard has stepped up nighttime patrols on the choppy, wintry waters of the Aegean Sea, seizing rafts full of refugees fleeing war for Europe and sending them back to Turkey.

Down south, at the border with Syria, Turkey is building a concrete wall, digging trenches, laying razor wire and at night illuminating vast stretches of land in an effort to cut off the flow of supplies and foreign fighters to the Islamic State.

Tighter Borders in Europe Create Migrant Bottleneck in Greece

Athens struggles to cope with thousands of new arrivals blocked from moving north

The Wall Street Journal

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI and  STELIOS BOURAS

Dec. 22, 2015 4:04 p.m. ET

5 COMMENTS

ATHENS—Greece is steadily shifting from being the main gateway for migrants into Europe to becoming the continent’s bottleneck, as new arrivals run up against tightened borders to the north.

Already struggling with its long debt crisis and economic depression, Greece risks finding itself unable to cope with the tens of thousands of migrants at risk of being marooned here this winter. Some are staying in temporary government shelters, others are sleeping rough.

Understanding Greece's Year In Crisis

A new film takes a close look at the first few months under the country's new leader.

 12/21/2015 01:02 pm ET | Updated 14 hours ago

Angeliki Kougiannou

HuffPost Greece

ATHENS, Greece -- According to filmmakers Paul Mason and Theopi Skarlatos, Jan. 25 marked the start of a financial war. That day, Greeks handed a massive election victory to Alexis Tsipras, the young and charismatic leader of the left-wing Syriza coalition.

In the months that followed, Greece went through a crippling financial crisis that brought the country to the brink of bankruptcy and close to an exit from the eurozone. After months of tense negotiations, the Greek government and its troika of lenders -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- finally agreed to a third international bailout for the country in exchange for economic reforms and a tough new round of austerity.

Is Russia still a key world power?

By James Nixey

Russia and Eurasia Programme head, Chatham House

BBC

Whether Russia, one of 15 successor states to the USSR, which broke up in 1991, is still a genuine world power in 2015 is open to question.

It remains the world's largest country and the largest oil producer

It retains its permanent seat on the UN Security Council (one among five)

Its nuclear arsenal (in Cold War times one of five countries, but now one of nine) has been progressively modernised

Sustained increases in defence spending have brought it close to its goal of escalation dominance in local and regional war

Greece Suspends Legislative Package After Concerns From Creditors

Law aimed at mitigating effects of austerity won’t be voted on by lawmakers until after Christmas

The Wall Street Journal

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI and  VIKTORIA DENDRINOU

Dec. 17, 2015 11:53 a.m. ET

1 COMMENTS

ATHENS—Greece suspended a legislation package on Thursday with social benefits aimed at mitigating the effects of the financial crisis on the most vulnerable following concerns by the country’s international creditors, according to Greek government officials.

The government was hoping that the bill would sweeten the pill for the Greeks who have suffered the most from the successive waves of austerity and appease its lawmakers, who were forced to approve another round of unpopular economic measures on Dec. 15.

What I learned about Greece’s year from hell

POLITICO gets an exclusive look at a new documentary that charts Syriza’s journey from election euphoria to grim austerity.

By  JAMES BLOODWORTH  12/16/15, 5:30 AM CET

Greece’s radical left party Syriza swept to power in January on a fiercely anti-austerity ticket. Hordes of left-wing activists from across Europe booked cheap flights and descended on Greece in order to show solidarity with the new government.

Less than nine months later, the foreign leftists had returned home and the anti-austerity euphoria had dissipated. Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tspras, leader of Syriza, had gone from being the face of hope to yet another harbinger of grim austerity.

So what happened in the interim? Quite a lot, actually.

Greece Scores Another Bitter Victory

Analysis DECEMBER 16, 2015 | 18:38 GMT

STRATFOR

Editor's Note: Greece is a country in crisis. Facing financial, political and social uncertainty, Greece's ruling Syriza party has cut a deal with the European Union that should keep the Greek economy afloat at least for the time being. However, further measures to appease Athens' creditors could create political discord, if not violence, in Greece. The situation is precarious, and it is very possible that the agreement will collapse. Stratfor is logging the latest developments in this crisis update.

Late Dec. 15, the Greek Parliament approved a package of measures that will allow the country to receive 1 billion euros (about $1.1 billion) in bailout funds. The measures include legislation authorizing the sale of bad business loans from local banks to foreign investors and a new pay scale for civil servants. It was another bitter victory for the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, probably the last in a year in which the ruling Syriza party had to approve a series of controversial policies to secure funding from the country's creditors.

Tsipras did manage to preserve his thin majority, as the 153 lawmakers from the ruling party and its junior coalition partner voted in favor of the package. In addition, the reforms were not particularly controversial, and the Eurogroup will probably decide in the coming hours that Greece deserves to receive the next tranche of the bailout. But unfortunately for the Greek leader, his government will have to pass even more controversial measures in January.

The most important aspect of the Dec. 15 package is what was not included. Plans to partially privatize the national power grid operator, the Independent Power Transmission Operator, were postponed until 2016. A controversial plan to eliminate subsidies for farmers has also been repeatedly postponed since Greece first signed a bailout agreement with the Eurogroup in July, both out of fear of massive protests from a particularly noisy sector of the population and because many representatives in the legislature hail from agricultural regions.

More important, in January the Greek Parliament will have to vote on a plan to overhaul the country's pension system to cut spending by almost 2 billion euros next year. Because pensions are one of the last safety nets remaining in Greece, this is far from a minor issue. In a country where unemployment affects at least a quarter of the active population (the figures are twice as high among the youth), entire families depend on pensions from their parents or grandparents. In November, the Greek Parliament passed legislation making it easier for banks to evict families that are behind on mortgage payments. The new regulations still protect a significant number of households and will probably not be fully enforced, but they represent even further erosion of Greece's already weak safety nets.

Finally, Greece is facing an increasingly complex migration crisis. There was a significant spike in the arrival of asylum seekers from the Middle East in 2015, which forced Athens to spend extra funds to provide food and shelter for some of the migrants. For most of the year, Athens benefited from the fact that these men and women wanted to move on to Northern Europe rather than stay in Greece. The situation began to change in recent weeks, when several countries along the Balkan route started building fences and bolstering border controls to reduce the influx of immigrants. Making matters worse, Brussels forced Athens to accept a Frontex (the European Union's border agency) operation on Greece's northern border.

The European Union recently signed a deal with Turkey to prevent people from entering Greece, but the impact of the agreement has yet to be seen. Greece's main fear in the coming weeks is that people will still try to enter the country but will have a harder time leaving. This would not only increase Athens' financial burden but, more important, increase the likelihood of anti-immigrant violence in the country.

In principle, a Grexit will be less likely in 2016 than it was in 2015 because Athens is already in a bailout program and does not face a particularly pressing calendar of debt maturities. Capital controls are already in place, and parliaments in the eurozone do not have to hold any votes related to Greece. However, Greece's ruling Syriza party controls a tenuous majority of only three seats in the Parliament, meaning that even a small rebellion among the lawmakers could topple the government. In addition, because the recession, high unemployment and the immigration crisis are far from over, street protests and episodes of violence — which have been relatively rare since Syriza won the election in January — will become more frequent.

Greece mounts late push to assure EU before migration summit

Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:08pm EST Related: WORLD, GREECE

ATHENS | BY RENEE MALTEZOU

Reuters

In a last-minute drive to assure European Union partners that it is getting to grips with a mass influx of refugees, Greece released aerial photographs on Tuesday of new registration centers for migrants on its northern Aegean islands.

The move is part of Athens' efforts, ahead of an EU summit starting on Thursday, to rebuff criticism by Germany and other EU governments that it has done too little to manage the flow of hundreds of thousands of people arriving on its shores.

14 Airports in Greece to Be Privatized in $1.3 Billion Deal

By NIKI KITSANTONIS

DEC. 14, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Greece’s leftist-led government on Monday signed its first major privatization deal, granting a German company the right to lease and manage more than a dozen regional airports.

The contract, worth 1.2 billion euros, or $1.3 billion, is part of an effort to privatize state assets and adopt economic changes demanded by international creditors under Greece’s €86 billion bailout program. Some other measures are under debate in the Greek Parliament and are scheduled for a vote Tuesday night.

Greece, lenders strike deal to unlock further bailout funds

Fri Dec 11, 2015 8:34pm GMT Related: BUSINESS

ATHENS | BY ANGELIKI KOUTANTOU AND LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS

Reuters

Greece and its international lenders have struck a deal on the latest set of reforms needed for Athens to receive 1 billion euros (£722 million) in further bailout aid, Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said on Friday.

The reforms relate to a new privatisation fund, a shake-up of the power sector, and how to open up the market for non-performing loans. Parliament will vote on the bill next week, Tsakalotos said.

Greece signs major privatisation deal with Germany's Fraport

Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:15am GMT Related: BUSINESS

ATHENS/BERLIN

Reuters

Greece's leftist government on Monday signed its first big privatisation deal with German airport operator Fraport (FRAG.DE), awarding it a 1.2 billion euro (£868 million)contract to lease and manage 14 regional airports.

Privatisations have been a key condition of Greece's international bailouts since 2010. But Athens has raised only about 3.5 billion euros from state asset sales so far versus an original target of 50 billion euros due to bureaucratic delays and lack of political will.

Greece expected to push through remaining reforms on Tuesday: euro zone

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:15pm GMT

BRUSSELS

Reuters

Greece has accomplished more than half of the reforms agreed with euro zone creditors to get the next, 1 billion-euro tranche of bailout loans and is to legislate the remaining steps on Tuesday, a senior euro zone official said on Sunday.

Greece Reaches Deal With Creditors on Next Portion of Financial Aid

Reforms to include overhauls to banking sector, design of a privatization fund, partial privatization of power grid operator

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI

Dec. 11, 2015 3:44 p.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal

ATHENS—Greece and its international creditors reached a deal on Friday on a new set of economic overhauls the government must implement to receive the next slice of €1 billion ($1.1 billion) in financial aid.

“We have reached a deal on this round,” Greek Economy Minister George Stathakis told reporters after the latest round of negotiations.

What China Can Learn From Greece

By SERGEI GURIEVDEC. 9, 2015

The New  York Times

As a political economist, I make my living studying the impact of politics on economics. My friends and co-authors who are political scientists focus on how economics affects politics. Which is more relevant in real life? Do countries with bad politics suffer from poor economic outcomes because bad economic policies are driven by bad politics? Or because persistent economic difficulties make reasonable politics hard to sustain?

Every year offers examples of both kinds. The year 2015 was no exception, producing two very important stories: Greece and China. Both are dramatic and multifaceted.

EU, creditors put Greece finances under the microscope

In Brussels, eurozone finance ministers are reviewing Greece's progress on implementing lender-ordered austerity measures. In Athens, center-left Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is exhibiting ostentatious self-confidence.

http://www.dw.com/en/eu-creditors-put-greece-finances-under-the-microscope/a-18900920

Deutsche Welle

From the Greek government's point of view, everything is going according to plan - maybe better. Early Sunday, the parliament in Athens passed an austerity budget for 2016 , enshrining tax hikes and spending cuts worth billions. The forecast for Greece to return to growth after mid-2016 are good, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said during the budget debate. And Greece's major banks were even recapitalized with fewer government subsidies than initially planned.

Sunday's bad news appeared in the German weekly Welt am Sonntag, which reported that Greece was trailing far behind on enacting the austerity demanded by its international creditors, calling the country a ship with no captain. That provoked an unusually harsh response from the prime minister's press office: The "diehard and unrepentant enemies of Greece" continue to rely on "disinformation and speculation."

Greece Expected to Miss 2016 Privatization Target

The agency has repeatedly missed its targets and been hit by series of resignations since it was formed

The Wall Street Journal

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI

Updated Dec. 8, 2015 12:44 p.m. ET

2 COMMENTS

ATHENS—Greece is likely to miss its privatization target next year, the head of Greece’s privatization agency said Tuesday, even as the agency prepares to make progress on nine asset sales in the next twelve months.

Under the terms of a new bailout agreement signed earlier this year, the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund aims to raise €3.7 billion ($4 billion) from asset sales in 2016 and another €1.3 billion in 2017.

Turkey says has duty to protect soldiers in Iraq after Baghdad ultimatum

Mon Dec 7, 2015 7:56am EST Related: WORLD, TURKEY, IRAQ

ISTANBUL/ERBIL | BY DAREN BUTLER AND ISABEL COLES

Turkey said on Monday it had a duty to protect its soldiers around the Islamic State-controlled city of Mosul in Iraq and that they were there simply on a training mission, after Baghdad ordered the immediate withdrawal of its latest deployment.

Turkey sent hundreds of forces to a camp in the Bashiqa region of northern Iraq on Thursday. It described it as a routine rotation in an existing training program to help Iraqis retake Mosul from Islamic State, and said the troops were there to ensure the safety of the Turkish military trainers.

The situation in Greece is a lot worse than it looks

 Reuters

Paul Taylor, Reuters

ATHENS (Reuters) - After a tumultuous year of two elections, a referendum, a default, a bank shutdown, capital controls and a tidal wave of migrants, it's amazing that Greece is still standing, like the Parthenon towering over Athens.

Yet the visitor's first impression is not of a country in deep depression in the eighth year of a recession that has shriveled economic output by more than 25 percent and put one in four people out of work.

Shortage of trust threatens Greece's comeback

Sun Dec 6, 2015 4:15am EST Related: WORLD, GREECE

ATHENS | BY PAUL TAYLOR

After a tumultuous year of two elections, a referendum, a default, a bank shutdown, capital controls and a tidal wave of migrants, it's amazing that Greece is still standing, like the Parthenon towering over Athens.

Yet the visitor's first impression is not of a country in deep depression in the eighth year of a recession that has shriveled economic output by more than 25 percent and put one in four people out of work.

For sure, there are more beggars in the streets, public health is declining and many Greeks have stories of hardship in their family. But the bars and restaurants are full, Christmas lights glitter and there is plenty of money being spent in the stores in central Athens.

In Greece, Shift From Cash to Plastic Could Undercut Shadow Economy

By SUZANNE DALEYDEC. 4, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — In the central market here recently, hanging above the trays of cod and the slabs of pink meat, was evidence that Greece’s near bankruptcy last summer was having an unexpected impact — shiny new placards advertising that, at least in some stalls, customers could now pay with debit and credit cards.

“If I like it or not, people are asking for it,” said Christos Papoutsis, 57, a butcher here who finally yielded to plastic money only last month. “If I don’t accept the cards, I will lose sales.”

Το καραβάνι τρέχει μες στη σκόνη

ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ 12:44

Του Πάσχου Μανδραβέλη

Εφημερίδα Καθημερινή

Ο συνεργάτης του Μπιλ Κλίντον, και πρώην εκπρόσωπος Τύπου του Λευκού Οίκου, Τζορτζ Στεφανόπουλος έδωσε μια καλή συμβουλή στον διάδοχό του: «Αν όλα πάνε στραβά, ρίξε το φταίξιμο στο Τύπο». Ο ελληνικός λαός θα το έλεγε καλύτερα: «ο πνιγμένος από τα Μέσα πιάνεται». Και η κυβέρνηση πνίγεται στην ανικανότητά της, στις παλινωδίες της, στα γινάτια, στα ρουσφέτια, στην αγραμματοσύνη, στο γενικώς «άλλα λέω κι άλλα κάνω», με αποτέλεσμα τώρα να της φταίνε τα Μέσα Ενημέρωσης. Ετσι, ανάμεσα στα σκυλιά που ουρλιάζουν και στα καραβάνια που τάχα προχωρούν, ο πρωθυπουργός είπε στην κοινοβουλευτική ομάδα του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ για «ένα μιντιακό σύστημα που ξεψυχά και βρυχάται» (1.12.2015).

Greece Agrees to More EU Help With Migrants

EU members were pressuring Greece to better monitor the bloc’s external border

The Wall Street Journal

By VALENTINA POP

Updated Dec. 3, 2015 5:03 p.m. ET

1 COMMENTS

BRUSSELS—Greece appeared to succumb to pressure from other governments as it agreed to accept more European Union help to control migrant flows.

Under pressure from EU governments, including a veiled suggestion that it could be suspended from the Schengen passport-free zone, Greece agreed to three steps to better handle incoming migrants, including assistance from the EU Border Agency, the European Commission said.

Greeks Strike to Protest Latest Austerity Measures

By NIKI KITSANTONIS

DEC. 3, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Workers across Greece walked off their jobs on Thursday, heeding a call by labor unions to join the second general strike in three weeks to protest a new round of austerity measures.

The 24-hour walkout shut down public services, disrupted public transportation, left ferries moored in ports, closed schools and forced hospitals to function with reduced staffs.

Russia and Turkey Hurl Insults as Feud Deepens

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
DEC. 3, 2015

The New York Times

MOSCOW — The leaders of Turkey and Russia flung insults at each other on Thursday in their deepening feud over the shooting down of a Russian warplane, with President Vladimir V. Putin warning that Moscow would do more than merely ban tomatoes and construction projects to penalize Ankara.

The Kremlin also said that the long-delayed transfer of the S-300 air defense system to Iran had started, a move that strengthens one of Turkey’s regional rivals while raising concerns in Israel.

EU presses Greece over migrants, weighs Schengen threat

Wed Dec 2, 2015 6:37pm EST Related: WORLD, GREECE, MIGRANT CRISIS

ATHENS/BRUSSELS | BY PAUL TAYLOR AND ALASTAIR MACDONALD

Greece hit back on Wednesday at threats from some EU states to suspend it from the Schengen zone of open border travel because of its failure to control large numbers of migrants entering Europe.

Some central European officials, most prominently Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, have suggested excluding Greece from Schengen. Diplomats and European Union officials say some governments have raised the possibility informally but it would be a largely symbolic move, with little impact on migration.

"It is not said officially, but there is pressure," Greek Migration Minister Yannis Mouzalas told reporters, denying a Financial Times report on Wednesday that Athens had, among other things, refused an EU offer of devices designed to share the identity data of incoming migrants around the bloc.

Greece aims for debt relief deal in Feb 2016 after reforms done

Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:11pm EST

ATHENS | BY LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS AND PAUL TAYLOR

Reuters

Greece wants a deal on debt relief with its euro zone creditors in February to remove financial uncertainty and spur economic recovery, its finance minister said, but euro zone officials said that timetable was very ambitious and likely to slip.

Addressing a conference of investors, Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said on Monday that making the ailing euro zone country's debt sustainable was the key to liberating the economy and restoring confidence among depositors and companies.

Euro to Bear Brunt of Yuan's Inclusion in Reserve-Currency Club

 Netty Idayu Ismail

 Lillian Chen

Bloombgerg

The euro’s worst year in a decade is looking even grimmer after the Chinese yuan’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of reserve currencies.

The 19-nation currency’s weighting in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket will drop to 30.93 percent, from 37.4 percent, the organization said Monday. The yuan will join the dollar, euro, pound and yen in the SDR allocation from Oct. 1, 2016, at a 10.92 percent weighting.

The euro has tumbled 13 percent against the dollar this year, the most in a decade, and central banks have reduced the proportion of the currency in their reserves to the lowest since 2002. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled on Oct. 22 that policy makers are open to boosting stimulus, after embarking on a 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) asset-purchase program in March.

An Expat’s Eye on Greece

By Rena Silverman Nov. 30, 2015

The New York Times

Dimitri Melios believes that people put reality into boxes. Most, he says, have a stereotypical conception of different parts of the world. When they think of India, they think of the Taj Mahal. And when they think of his native Greece, they think of sunny Mediterranean beaches.

“Most people go to Greece from this country or elsewhere,” he said from his home in Manhattan. “They just go to a couple of specific destinations. Everybody goes to Mykonos or Santorini, and that’s the kind of image people associate with the country.”

Greece Faces Two-Week Reform Deadline to Unlock $1.1 Billion Eurozone Aid

A list of 13 so-called milestone reform demands signed off by eurozone officials

The Wall Street Journal

By VIKTORIA DENDRINOU

Nov. 27, 2015 4:27 a.m. ET

BRUSSELS—Greece has two weeks to implement 13 pieces of economic reform, including changes to its banking sector and the design of a privatization fund, to receive €1 billion ($1.1 billion) in financial aid, according to an agreement struck by eurozone finance ministries.

Completing these reforms would allow Athens to receive fresh loans from its international creditors, and bring Athens one step closer to starting negotiations on debt relief.

Memo to Putin: Syria Is Turkey's Ukraine

49 NOV 27, 2015 2:00 AM EST

By Marc Champion

Bloomberg

Russian leaders have evidently been shocked by Turkey's deliberate decision to shoot down one of their planes, which they say was motivated by Turkey's alleged support for Islamic State and greed for the proceeds of smuggled terrorist oil. A simpler explanation is that Russia would have done the same.

Here is the hypothetical: What would President Vladimir Putin do if civil war broke out in a neighboring country, which had been part of the Russian empire for centuries before breaking away under circumstances, and with borders, that Russians still found difficult to accept? What would he do if, in that war, some of the rebels were ethnic Russians at risk of being brutally crushed by the armed forces of the neighboring state?

Actually, that's not so hypothetical; it pretty much describes eastern Ukraine. And we know what Russia did -- it became heavily involved in a poorly concealed invasion.

Russia to Target Syria Jihadists as Hollande Seeks Diplomacy

 Andrey Biryukov  Helene Fouquet  Henry Meyer

November 26, 2015 — 10:48 PM EET Updated on November 27, 2015 — 9:02 AM EET

Bloomberg

France and Russia agreed to coordinate strikes in Syria to increase the focus on jihadist militants, as French President Francois Hollande seeks to rally support against Islamic State before hosting world leaders in Paris next week.

China Unveils Biggest Army Overhaul in Decades to Project Power

By  Bloomberg News

November 26, 2015 — 12:56 PM EET Updated on November 27, 2015 — 3:40 AM EET

President Xi Jinping announced a major overhaul of China’s military to make the world’s largest army more combat ready and better equipped to project force beyond the country’s borders.

Under the reorganization, all branches of the armed forces would come under a joint military command, Xi told a meeting of military officials in Beijing Thursday, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. Bloomberg in September reported details of the plan, which may also seek to consolidate the country’s seven military regions to as few as four.

Russia Plans Sanctions After Turkey Downs Warplane

Nataliya Vasilyeva, James Ellingworth / Associated Press  Updated: Nov. 26, 2015 12:36 PM

ΤΙΜΕ

It's further retaliation against Turkey after its airforce shot down a Russian jet

(MOSCOW) — Russia plans to retaliate against Turkey for the downing of a warplane by imposing sanctions, cutting economic ties and scrapping major investment projects.

Since the plane was shot down Tuesday on the Syria-Turkey border, Russia has already restricted tourism, left Turkish trucks stranded at the border and confiscated large quantities of Turkish food imports.

Range of Frustrations Reached Boil as Turkey Shot Down Russian Jet

By KEITH BRADSHERNOV. 25, 2015

The New York Times

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey and Russia promised on Wednesday not to go to war over the downing of a Russian military jet, leaving Turkey’s still-nervous NATO allies and just about everyone else wondering why the country decided to risk such a serious confrontation.

The reply from the Turkish government so far has been consistent: Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

Though minor airspace violations are fairly common and usually tolerated, Turkey had repeatedly called in Russia’s ambassador to complain about aircraft intrusions and about bombing raids in Syria near the border. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday evening — and a Pentagon spokesman later confirmed — that before a Turkish F-16 shot down the Russian Su-24 jet, Turkish forces had warned the Russian plane 10 times in five minutes to steer away.

Συναγερμός από τους εισαγγελείς

ΠΡΟΚΟΠΗΣ ΧΑΤΖΗΝΙΚΟΛΑΟΥ

Εφημερίδα Καθημερινή

15-11-2015

Κενός λόγος αποδεικνύεται η πάταξη της διαφθοράς και της φοροδιαφυγής στην Ελλάδα, σύμφωνα με τα στοιχεία που αποκαλύπτει η «Κ», από τα οποία προκύπτει ότι ελάχιστα έχουν γίνει, κυρίως εξαιτίας της παρατηρούμενης αδράνειας, ενδεχομένως και της αδιαφορίας. Από τον περασμένο Μάιο ο πρωθυπουργός, Αλέξης Τσίπρας, έχει στα χέρια του μακροσκελή επιστολή του οικονομικού εισαγγελέα κ. Παν. Αθανασίου που περιγράφει με λεπτομέρειες τόσο τα δυνητικά οφέλη από τον έλεγχο των λιστών όσο και το πρόβλημα της υποστελέχωσης των υπηρεσιών, που, αν δεν αντιμετωπιστεί, μοιραία θα οδηγήσει στην παραγραφή των υποθέσεων αλλά και στην απώλεια εκατοντάδων εκατομμυρίων ευρώ που θα μπορούσαν να χρησιμοποιηθούν ως ισοδύναμα.

Finland’s Problem Isn’t the Euro

Despite modest debt and a competitive economy, the Nordic country is on course for a fourth year of recession, but don’t blame the common currency

The Wall Street Journal

By SIMON NIXON

Nov. 25, 2015 5:30 p.m. ET

8 COMMENTS

Which has been the worst performing economy in Europe this year, excluding Greece? The surprising answer is Finland. In the third quarter of this year, Finland’s economy contracted by 0.6%, putting it on course for a possible fourth consecutive year of recession. Since 2008, its output has shrunk by 6%, faring only slightly better than Italy’s roughly 8% decline over the same period.

How the Migrant Crisis Could Accelerate a Grexit

Geopolitical Diary NOVEMBER 24, 2015 | 01:54 GMT

STRATFOR

Stratfor laid out on Nov. 11 the potential dangers of Slovenia closing its borders to migrants, establishing a barrier across the heavily transited Balkan migration corridor. Two days later, a terrorist attack in Paris led to a hardening of attitudes across the Continent. In response, the Slovenian government announced Nov. 19 that it would no longer allow economic migrants — those who are not from war zones such as Syria and Afghanistan — to enter its territory. The announcement caused a chain reaction back along the migration route as Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia, anticipating a backlog forming in their territories, swiftly closed their own borders. This has left many migrants stranded along the route, powerless to move forward and now unable to backtrack.

Turkey downs Russian warplane near Syria border, Putin warns of 'serious consequences'

Wed Nov 25, 2015 3:03am EST 

Related: WORLD, RUSSIA, TURKEY, AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

Reuters

ANKARA/MOSCOW | BY TULAY KARADENIZ AND MARIA KISELYOVA

Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on Tuesday, saying the jet had violated its air space, in one of the most serious publicly acknowledged clashes between a NATO member country and Russia for half a century.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the plane had been attacked when it was 1 km (0.62 mile) inside Syria and warned of "serious consequences" for what he termed a stab in the back administered by "the accomplices of terrorists".

Will this Russia-Turkey business get out of control?

Turkey shot down a Russian warplane. How lucky will we be to live through this?

The Washington Post

By Daniel W. Drezner November 24 at 9:20 AM

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a regular contributor to PostEverything

When former senator and actor Fred Thompson passed away earlier this month, it was impossible to forget the best line he ever delivered on a film.

This line seems particularly trenchant now, as something I worried about last month pretty much just happened:

Putin Says Turkish 'Stab in Back' Caused Russian Warplane Crash

By  Andrey Biryukov

November 24, 2015 — 3:01 PM EET Updated on November 24, 2015 — 3:54 PM EET

Bloomberg

President Vladimir Putin accused Turkey of being an accomplice of terrorism for shooting down a Russian warplane in Syria and warned of “very serious consequences” for their relations.

“We understand that everyone has their own interests but we won’t allow such crimes to take place,” Putin said at talks Tuesday with Jordanian King Abdullah II in Sochi. “We received a stab in the back from accomplices of terrorism.”

Putin Has Misjudged Turkey's Erdogan

105 NOV 24, 2015 8:09 AM EST

By Marc Champion

Bloomberg

The details of how and why a Russian jet was shot down near the Turkish-Syrian border remain unclear, but one thing can already be said: Russian President Vladimir Putin has misjudged his Turkish counterpart and former friend, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

According to Turkey's military, one of its F-16s fired on a jet over Turkish territory, after the plane's pilots ignored 10 warnings to leave. So the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's second-largest military is claiming to have shot down an aircraft in anger that was probably Russian, and is now "consulting" with its NATO allies.

Greece Gets Aid Infusion As EU Counts on Tsipras to Pass Reforms

 Rebecca Christie

 Corina Ruhe

 November 23, 2015 — 8:47 PM EET

Bloomberg

Greece unlocked more of its rescue funds on Monday as the euro area called on Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to maintain his nation’s commitment to meeting its bailout requirements.

In the first aid payment since August, when Greece secured an 86 billion-euro ($91 billion) third bailout, the euro area on Monday approved a 2 billion-euro disbursement from the European Stability Mechanism firewall fund. This allows Greece to turn its attention to recapitalizing its banks and releasing another 1 billion euros in rescue funds before the end of the year.

Greece's Alpha Bank details allocation of share issue

Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:53am EST Related: FINANCIALS

ATHENS

Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/23/greece-alphabank-shares-idUSL8N13I0UK20151123#RWy0sQZD1mWOFAP0.99

Reuters

Nov 23 Greece's Alpha Bank said on Monday new shares issued to fill a capital hole identified in a European Central Bank (ECB) health check would be allocated to investors in a bookbuilding process and to bondholders that took part in a debt-for-equity swap.

A disagreement in Europe

The euro crisis was not a government-debt crisis

Nov 23rd 2015, 9:43 BY R.A. | LONDON

The Economist

THE euro-zone crisis has transitioned from an acute phase to a chronic one. At just this moment the fear that market panic might force one or several economies out of the single currency is low. Yet few analysts believe the euro zone has solved its fundamental problems. In a piece published at Vox EU last week, a cadre of prominent economists made the very sensible point that unless euro-area leaders can agree on the fundamental causes of the crisis, they will struggle to craft long-run fixes. The authors set out their view of the crisis, in hopes that it will prove a foundation for consensus building.

Team Obama’s latest ISIS ‘oops’

By Post Editorial Board November 20, 2015 | 9:25pm

The New York Post

When it comes to US intelligence failures on ISIS, it turns out President Obama’s dismissing the Islamic State as a “JV team” was only a minor blip.

As Bloomberg Businessweek reports, the Obama administration realized just days ago that ISIS is one of the richest organizations in the world — with assets totaling billions.

Greece’s Piraeus Bank Fails to Raise Enough From Private Investors

Capital shortfall determined through ECB stress tests for the Greek economy

The Wall Street Journal

By STELIOS BOURAS and  NEKTARIA STAMOULI

Nov. 22, 2015 8:06 a.m. ET

0 COMMENTS

ATHENS—Greece’s second-largest lender by assets, Piraeus Bank SA, said Saturday that it didn’t manage to raise all the funds needed from private investors following capital shortfalls outlined by the European Central Bank in October.

This means that Greece’s bank rescue fund will need to prop up Piraeus and Greece’s largest lender, National Bank of Greece SA, with at least €6.3 billion ($6.7 billion).

Euro zone agrees Greece can get next loan tranche, cash for bank recap

Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:03pm EST

BRUSSELS

Reuters

Greece has done all the reforms in the a first package of measures agreed with euro zone creditors, which paves the way for Athens to get the next tranche of loans, the head of euro zone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Saturday.

Greece is getting very cheap loans form the euro zone bailout fund ESM under its third bailout agreement in exchange for putting its public finances in order and reforming the economy to make it more efficient and competitive.

Greece passes bailout bill but government majority shrinks

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:19am GMT Related: BUSINESS, WORLD

ATHENS | BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND KAROLINA TAGARIS

Reuters

Greece approved a reform bill on Thursday to secure further bailout funds from its international lenders but Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' parliamentary majority shrank to just two seats after two dissenting lawmakers were expelled.

The bill, outlining regulation on tax arrears and home foreclosures, paves the way for the disbursement of 2 billion euros (916 million pounds) to pay state arrears and a further 10 billion euro to recapitalise Greece's top four banks.

EU takes Greece to court for poor treatment of waste water

Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:11pm GMT Related: WORLD

BRUSSELS

Reuters

The European Commission has taken Greece to court a second time for not treating its waste water properly and is proposing a fine of at least 15 million euros, it said on Thursday.

In 2004, the highest European Union court ruled that Greece was violating EU law for not collecting and treating waste water discharged into the Gulf of Elefsina.

UPDATE 1-Greece's Alpha Bank prices share issue at 0.04 euros a share

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:18am EST Related: FINANCIALS

Reuters

Nov 19 Greece's Alpha Bank on Thursday priced its share offering to fill a capital shortfall revealed in a European Central Bank health check, becoming the second Greek lender to raise funds from private investors without resorting to state aid.

Alpha priced the new shares at 0.04 euros each or 2.0 euros after a one-for-50 reverse share split, translating to a 35 percent discount to Wednesday's closing price.

Greece's fourth-largest lender sought to raise 1.55 billion euros ($1.65 bln) from investors to fill a 2.74 billion euro capital gap under the ECB stress test's adverse scenario.

Greece and Eurozone Creditors in Deal to Unlock $13 Billion

By NIKI KITSANTONISNOV. 17, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Greece and its international creditors said on Tuesday that they had reached agreement on the country’s next round of economic changes, a deal that is meant to unlock as much as 12 billion euros, or about $13 billion, in loan money.

Athens had initially hoped the money would be dispensed after the Greek Parliament passed a package of economic measures last month.

But eurozone finance ministers said then that the steps did not fully meet the conditions required for the next milestone payment from the country’s €86 billion bailout package.

Finnish parliament will debate next year leaving euro zone

Mon Nov 16, 2015 7:25am EST Related: WORLD

HELSINKI | BY JUSSI ROSENDAHL

Reuters

Finland's parliament will debate next year whether to quit the euro, a senior parliamentary official said on Monday, in a move unlikely to end membership of the single currency but which highlights Finns' dissatisfaction with their country's economic performance.

The decision follows a citizens' petition which has raised the necessary 50,000 signatures under Finnish rules to force such a debate, probably the first such initiative in any country of the 19-member euro zone.

Kurds enter Sinjar 'from all directions' - Kurdistan security council

Fri Nov 13, 2015 7:52am GMT Related: WORLD

NEAR SINJAR TOWN

Reuters

Kurdish peshmerga forces entered Sinjar "from all directions" on Friday to begin clearing the northern Iraqi town of Islamic State militants, the Kurdistan regional security council said in a tweet.

U.S. targets 'Jihadi John' in Syria air strike

Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:57am GMT Related: WORLD, UK, SYRIA, MIDDLE EAST

WASHINGTON | BY PHIL STEWART AND MARK HOSENBALL

Reuters

The United States on Thursday carried out an air strike in Syria targeting the Islamic State militant known as "Jihadi John," who participated in gruesome videos showing the killings of American and British hostages, officials said.

One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the strike likely killed Mohammed Emwazi, a British citizen, but cautioned that it was too soon to make any determination.

Euro Eyes Parity Once More

Bloomberg

Vassilis Karamanis

Following a failed attempt at parity earlier this year, the euro may be set to make a more convincing foray at 1.0000 to the U.S. dollar, as a crucial driver for further weakness in the common currency is now on a substantially different path, Bloomberg strategist Vassilis Karamanis writes.

Greek Strike Shows Conflict Within Government Over Austerity

By NIKI KITSANTONISNOV. 12, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Hundreds of thousands of Greeks walked off their jobs on Thursday to protest austerity economics, as officials of the leftist-led government wrangled with the country’s international creditors over the terms of Greece’s third bailout. At least one Athens protest turned violent.

The 24-hour walkout shut down public services, forced the cancellation of flights and disrupted public transportation across the country. Ferries remained moored in ports, hospitals were operating with reduced staff, and museums and archaeological sites were closed.

Creditors Withhold 2 Billion Euro Bailout Payment From Greece

By NIKI KITSANTONIS NOV. 9, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Greece’s international bailout program has hit snags, delaying release of the next payout of rescue money.

Despite a weekend of negotiations by telephone, Greek officials and the country’s foreign creditors remained at odds. At a meeting in Brussels on Monday, eurozone finance ministers debated whether Athens had met the first set of conditions to unlock the next installment of the bailout of 86 billion euros (about $92 billion).

The ministers decided to delay the release of the payout, a sum of €2 billion, but indicated it might be dispensed soon.

Eurozone Finance Ministers Won’t Release $2.15 billion Loan to Greece

Disagreements over new foreclosure rules continue, two European officials say

The Wall Street Journal

By GABRIELE STEINHAUSER and  VIKTORIA DENDRINOU

Updated Nov. 9, 2015 4:05 a.m. ET

BRUSSELS—Eurozone finance ministers won’t release €2 billion ($2.15 billion) of funding for Greece at their meeting here Monday amid continued disagreements over new foreclosure rules, two European officials said.

Senior officials from the currency union’s finance ministries were updated on Greece’s implementation of around 50 promised overhauls, known as milestones, during a conference call Sunday afternoon. While progress has been made on some issues—including measures to substitute a tax on private education, the governance of the country’s bailed-out banks and the treatment of overdue loans—Athens and its creditors will need more time to sign off on all overhauls, the officials said.

Οι καθαρίστριες του κ. Τσακαλώτου

Οι καθαρίστριες του κ. Τσακαλώτου

04 Νοέμβριος 2015. Posted in Εφημερίδα Καθημερινή

Του Πάσχου Μανδραβέλη

«Σιγά!», θα πει κάποιος. «Αυτό είναι το πρόβλημα της χώρας; Οι 165 καθαρίστριες του κ. Τσακαλώτου;». Φυσικά όχι, διότι στην Ελλάδα δεν υπάρχει ΤΟ πρόβλημα. Υπάρχουν χιλιάδες μικρά προβλήματα, που όλα μαζί αθροίζονται και δημιουργούν ΤΟ πρόβλημα.

The Greece Debt Watch

Inside the bailout bonanza.

Bloomberg

By Dimitra Kessenides

August 2015

Greece signs a third bailout deal with the European Commission, agreeing to sweeping reforms in exchange for fresh loans in the amount of €86 billion.

Fall 2015

Greek lawmakers raise the retirement age, cut pensions, and increase the sales tax.

Oct. 31, 2015

After stress-testing the country’s top four banks, the European Central Bank says they’ll need €4.4 billion ($4.8 billion) to €14.4 billion of additional capital.

Nov. 6, 2015

The deadline for banks to submit plans detailing how they’ll raise the additional capital.

Winter 2016

Euro area member states will discuss easing Greece’s debt burden, following the successful completion of the first bailout review.

March-April 2016

Lenders will assess how much progress the country has made toward fiscal health. An unsatisfactory review could lead them to demand more austerity measures, again raising the question of a Grexit.

Greece Set to Vote on Bailout Provisions

 NIKI KITSANTONISNOV. 5, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Greek lawmakers on Thursday were poised to approve some of the economic changes that international creditors were demanding before unlocking the first loan installment from the country’s bailout program. But the legislation pointedly lacks some of the main measures demanded by lenders.

Resistance to Authority in Greece as Pessimism Takes Hold

By STEVEN ERLANGERNOV. 5, 2015

The New York Times

LONDON — Yiorgos Kaminis has the privilege and misfortune of being the mayor of Athens, the suffering heart of bankrupt Greece, marked by both the majesty of the Parthenon and a relentless wave of graffiti hooligans, whose work he does not have the money to scrape off.

Now 61, Mr. Kaminis was born in New York and lived there until the age of 5, studied in France, taught law at the University of Athens and was re-elected last year as the nonpartisan mayor of one of the world’s great cities.

Greece Sets Terms for Aiding $15.9 Billion Bank Recap

Nikos Chrysoloras

November 2, 2015 — 2:42 AM EET Updated on November 2, 2015

Greece’s government detailed under what terms it will help banks plug a 14.4 billion-euro ($15.9 billion) hole in their books identified by the European Central Bank, paving the way for the lenders to seek cash from investors for the second time in 18 months.

Greece sets mix of bonds, shares in state aid to recapitalise banks

Sun Nov 1, 2015 11:12pm GMT Related: BUSINESS

Reuters

Greece's bank bailout fund HFSF will provide state aid to recapitalise the country's main banks by buying a mix of contingent convertible bonds (CoCoS) and new shares the lenders will issue, the government said on Sunday.

The Hellenic Financial Stability Fund will supply 75 percent of the aid needed via CoCos and 25 percent in exchange for new common shares the banks will issue, the government's economic policy council said, finalising the architecture of the plan.

U.S. Says Greece Must Lift Bank Governance to Build on Progress

By Rebecca Christie,  Andrew Mayeda

Bloomberg

Greece must improve financial-sector governance now that its biggest banks are moving to sounder footing, the U.S. Treasury’s top international official said.

“There’s a meaningful stabilization of the Greek banks,” Nathan Sheets, undersecretary for international affairs, said in an interview ahead of Saturday’s stress test and asset quality review results.

Greece Outlines Bank Recapitalization Plan

Vote into law is expected on Saturday evening

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI

Oct. 30, 2015 5:14 p.m. ET

0 COMMENTS

ATHENS—Greece unveiled its bank recapitalization framework Friday and is expected to vote it into law Saturday evening, hours after the European Central Bank releases results of its health check on the country’s four big banks.

This will be the third capital increase of the country’s battered lenders since Greece’s debt crisis erupted in 2010 and has to be completed by the end of the year, before the deposit bail-in instrument becomes effective at the beginning of 2016.

According to the draft bill, the lenders will be able to use common or preferred shares, as well as other financing instruments to be bailed in.

Greece's deputy finance minister gets bullet, threatening letter in post

Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:58pm EDT 

ATHENS

Reuters

Greece's deputy finance minister on Monday got a letter in the post with a bullet in it and a note comparing him to a collaborator with Germany's Nazi forces who occupied the country in World War Two, the Greek finance ministry said.

Many Greeks blame Germany, Europe's biggest economy, for the austerity programs linked to the country's 86 billion euro ($95 billion) international bailout agreed in August.

Greece needs to recapitalize its banks by year end: Dombrovskis

Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:53am EDT

ATHENS

Reurers

reece needs to have its biggest lenders recapitalized by the end of the year, EU Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis said on Tuesday.

"We all agree to finalize bank recapitalization by end of this year," Dombrovskis said after meeting Greece's central bank governor Yannis Stournaras.

Dombrovskis is in Athens for talks on reforms Greece needs to complete before a review which would unlock new aid for the country under an 86 billion euro bailout.

Greece’s Long Road From ‘No’ to ‘Yes’

OCT. 26, 2015

Nikos Konstandaras

New York Times

ATHENS — Greeks will commemorate the Oct. 28 national holiday in a very different country from what it was a year ago. The anniversary marks the day in 1940 when a Greek government rejected an ultimatum from Fascist Italy to allow its troops to enter the country. The “No” (“Ochi” in Greek) united a deeply divided country behind a right-wing dictatorship and thrust Greece into World War II on the side of the Allies. “No” is a symbol of defiance. But now Greeks must decide what they want, rather than what they reject.

Greece, lenders assess bailout compliance; Finance Minister says economy healthier

Wed Oct 21, 2015 11:17am EDT

ATHENS | BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS

Greece and its international lenders began talks on Wednesday to test its compliance with terms of an 86 billion-euro bailout deal, as authorities said a recession this year would be milder than expected.

Athens got its third multi-billion euro lifeline from creditors this year, pulling it back from the brink of crashing out of the euro. But it needs to fix a creaking pensions system, raise taxes and plug capital gaps in its banks this year.

Team leaders from three European Union institutions and the International Monetary Fund are reviewing reforms Athens adopted on Oct. 16 and future "milestones" Greece must pass soon to be eligible for a loan payment of 3 billion euros.

Euro Falls Against Dollar

ECB’s Nowotny suggests officials should use more policy instruments to raise competitiveness

The Wall Street Journal

By IRA IOSEBASHVILI

Oct. 15, 2015 2:14 p.m. ET

0 COMMENTS

The euro fell against the dollar Thursday, after a member of the European Central Bank suggested officials should use more policy instruments to raise the region’s competitiveness.

The euro was recently down 0.7% at $1.1392, giving back most of the previous day’s gains. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which gauges the buck against a basket of 16 currencies, was unchanged at 86.62.

The Hidden Debt Burden of Emerging Markets

OCT 9, 2015 8

Carmen Reinhart

Carmen Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.

Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/hidden-debt-burden-emerging-markets-by-carmen-reinhart-2015-10#FXJpvBLv1lmqBq1A.99

LIMA – As central bankers and finance ministers from around the globe gather for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings here in Peru, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. Gone are the days when IMF meetings were monopolized by the problems of the advanced economies struggling to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Now, the discussion has shifted back toward emerging economies, which face the risk of financial crises of their own.

EU to Assess Greek Debt Burden, Servicing Costs After Review

 Rebecca Christie

Bloomberg

The European Commission said it will assess Greece’s debt burden and servicing costs once Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shows his nation will meet the commitments under its new bailout program.

For debt relief talks to proceed, Greece needs to implement the reforms it has already passed, enact further required measures and pass its first program review, European Union Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici told reporters Monday in Brussels. At that point, he said, authorities can review “under what conditions the Greek debt will be sustainable” and how to “reduce the servicing of the debt.”

Greece’s Parliament Begins Debating First Austerity Bill

Ministers to vote Friday on further economic overhauls agreed in new bailout program

The Wall Street Jornal

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI

Oct. 12, 2015 12:29 p.m. ET

ATHENS—Greece’s parliament Monday began debating the first bill containing tough austerity measures and economic overhauls agreed under its new bailout program.

The bill, which is expected to go to a vote on Friday, includes stricter pension rules, tax hikes and tougher fines for tax evasion.

Under the deal Greece struck with its international creditors, which foresees up to €86 billion ($96 billion) in fresh loans, the omnibus bill—so-called because it wraps a number of proposed reforms into one bill—will pave the way for the disbursement of the next €2 billion in bailout funds.