What Greece Has to Do Now: Fix Its Economy

Michael G. Jacobides

FEBRUARY 27, 2015

After weeks of media frenzy around the Greek election and the new government’s once-ambitious plans to renegotiate with the Eurozone over its debt crisis, the searchlights of publicity are shifting. For all of its bravado, Greece was pushed into a corner in an eleventh-hour deal that will extend a bailout agreement for four more months. And although it has been given a temporary lifeline, little has been resolved.

GREECE'S FUTURE IS ITS PAST

Posted by Rebecca Harding on Feb 23rd 2015,

A deal was done at the last minute: Greece’s €172bn debt bailout was extended for a further four months after a turbulent week of bluff and counterbluff. Even now, there are no formal agreements on the required reform process ahead and without these agreements the deal will not be ratified. It appears that the Greek government is keen to demonstrate its willingness to reform by focusing on tax evasion and civil service reform, but it is unlikely that this will be sufficient for either Germany or the ECB.

What Good Are Economists?

Robert J. Shiller

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/are-economists-good-by-robert-j--shiller-2015-01

NEW HAVEN – Since the global financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009, criticism of the economics profession has intensified. The failure of all but a few professional economists to forecast the episode – the aftereffects of which still linger – has led many to question whether the economics profession contributes anything significant to society. If they were unable to foresee something so important to people’s wellbeing, what good are they?

Gold Rises to Highest Since October as U.S. Rate Outlook Weighed

By Laura Clarke and Glenys Sim  Jan 13, 2015 12:23 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

Gold extended gains to the highest in almost 12 weeks as investors assessed the timing of higher borrowing costs and the strength of the U.S. economy amid slumping oil prices. Silver climbed to a four-week high.

Bullion rose for a third day after U.S. data last week showed falling incomes even as hiring accelerated. Fed Bank of San Francisco President John Williams has said raising rates in June would be a close call amid “strong momentum” in the labor market and weaker wage gains.

Euro sinks to fresh nine-year low

 BBC

8 January 2015 Last updated at 15:52 GMT

The euro has hit a fresh nine-year low against the dollar, in part after a surprise decrease in German manufacturing.

German factory orders fell by 2.4% in November compared with the previous month, worse than expected.

China's Economy: Don’t Bet on Beijing

A recent report makes clear the enormous challenges facing China’s economy.

The Diplomat

http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/chinas-economy-dont-bet-on-beijing/

By Sam Winter-Levy

December 02, 2014

The Financial Times recently reported that China has wasted nearly $7 trillion since the global financial crisis. According to research by China’s state planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, “ineffective investment” made up nearly half the total amount invested in the Chinese economy since 2009. The soaring ranks of empty skyscrapers and residential complexes that crowd the skylines of so many of China’s third- and fourth-tier cities are the most obvious sign of this prodigality, although alongside extraordinary levels of misallocated capital, billions of dollars of post-crisis stimulus has simply disappeared into the opaque pockets of Communist Party officials. Following the widely hailed conclusion of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum earlier this month in Beijing, where Chinese President Xi Jinping insisted once again on a “new type of great-power relations” between the United States and a rising China, these reports of waste on an immense scale should be a salutary reminder of the extent of the challenges the Chinese Communist Party faces before any supposedly inevitable transition of global power takes place.

Greece Expects Primary Budget Surplus for 2015

But Spending Plans Not Agreed with Creditors

The Wall Street Journal

By STELIOS BOURAS and  ALKMAN GRANITSAS

Updated Nov. 21, 2014 7:03 a.m. ET

0 COMMENTS

ATHENS—Greece’s 2015 budget, submitted by the government to parliament on Friday, aims to meet the fiscal demands of the country’s creditors but comes without the prior approval of its troika of international inspectors.

Why the run on banks?

Bulgaria

Jul 1st 2014, 17:32 by G.K. | SOFIA

IN A country struggling with rampant corruption, a weak judiciary and unstable government, the Bulgarian banking system has consistently won praise for its stable institutions, high liquidity and low risk. In the past few weeks that system has come under attack in the worst run on banks in 17 years.

The central bank said runs on First Investment Bank (FIB) and Corporate Commercial Bank (CCB), the country’s third and fourth largest lenders, in the past two weeks were part of a “deliberate and systematic attempt to destabilise Bulgaria's banking system”. According to the authorities, criminals tried to disrupt the system by sending e-mails and text messages urging people to withdraw their funds from several large banks.

China economic clout good for U.S.: Column

Ted C. Fishman 4:05 p.m. EDT June 15, 2014

USA Today

Instead of feeling threatened, Chinese buying power can help us and improve relations.

Early this spring, the World Bank announced that, by one measure, the size of the Chinese economy at the end of 2011 was nearly equal to that of the U.S. and, this year, it will be bigger. Americans are fearful of China lately. A bigger economy seems to be giving China sharper elbows. The Asian giant has been pressing territorial demands. China's military supports cyber spies who steal American industrial secrets. China's President Xi Jinping warns the U.S. in speeches that America will get burned if America stymies China's assertion of its goals.

Should Americans feel threatened? Surprised?

A Plan to Revitalize Greece Harvard Business Review

By Alexander S. Kritikos  Jun 9, 2014 3:00 PM GMT+0300

Bloomberg

Greece is finally showing signs of recovering from its 2008 crash. However, as much as macroeconomic reforms are needed, the future of the Greek economy will be determined by its competitiveness, which concerns costs, but is also measured by innovation.

In that regard, Greece finds itself at a crossroads. It can improve its competitiveness by reducing costs in its traditional sectors, such as tourism, agriculture, and trade. Or it can aim higher – by laying the groundwork for higher value-added goods production.

Greek current account deficit shrinks in March

Thu May 22, 2014 4:21am EDT

ATHENS, May 22 (Reuters) - Greece's current account deficit

shrank in March from the same month last year, according to

balance of payments figures released by the central bank on

Thursday.

    The deficit stood at 44 million euros ($60.12 million) from

1.24 billion euros in March 2013.

    Tourism revenues rose to 195 million euros in March from 151

million in the same month in 2013.

***************************************************************

    KEY FIGURES (bln euros)        2014         2013

    January                                     -0.295       -0.314

    February                                   -0.709       -0.684

    March                                       -0.044       -1.241

    -------------------------------------------------

    source: Bank of Greece   

($1 = 0.7318 Euros)

 (Reporting by George Georgiopoulos; Editing by Karolina

Tagaris)

China economic growth slows to 18-month low in first-quarter

BY ADAM ROSE AND XIAOYI SHAO

BEIJING Wed Apr 16, 2014 2:29am EDT

(Reuters) - China's economy grew at its slowest pace in 18 months at the start of 2014, but did a touch better than expected and showed some improvement in March, suggesting Beijing will not rush to follow up recent steps to support activity.

Authorities have ruled out major stimulus to fight short-term dips in growth, signaling the slowdown was an expected consequence of their reform drive, even as some analysts think the economy will lose further momentum.

The euro-zone economy:Frost in spring

The Economist

The recovery may be warming but inflation is cooling

Apr 5th 2014 | From the print edition

VIEWED from one perspective, the euro area is a minor miracle. Instead of collapsing in a heap, as seemed possible two years ago, the currency club is not just intact but has a new member, Latvia, which joined in January. An economic recovery has been under way since last spring and appears to be strengthening. But seen from another standpoint the euro zone is an accident waiting to happen. As inflation slips ever lower, a slide into Japanese-style deflation looks increasingly likely. That would raise an already onerous debt burden in real terms and pull down growth.

Growing service sector won't avert China slowdown

BY ADAM ROSE AND XIAOYI SHAO

BEIJING Thu Apr 3, 2014 2:40am EDT

(Reuters) - A robust services sector will not stop China's economy from slowing into the middle of the year, analysts said after modest government stimulus was seen as a signal authorities want to steady growth to keep their reform drive on track.

Two surveys on Thursday showing growth in the service sector offered some relief after a run of disappointing data this year, but did little to alter the view that the world's second-largest economy has lost more momentum than expected in 2014.

China’s Rapid Growth Hits the Brakes

By NEIL GOUGHMARCH 18, 2014

The New York Times

HONG KONG — New pockets of economic weakness in China emerged on Tuesday, as the collapse of a highly indebted real estate developer and weak home sales pointed to a slowdown in the sprawling property sector.

The latest batch of difficulties add to the continuing debate over China’s commitment to economic reforms. While Beijing is pushing through initiatives to reform its economy, the worry is that the country’s slowing economy will prompt it to reverse course.

Russia Sounds Alarm on Economic Crisis as West Imposes Sanctions

By Olga Tanas and Anna Andrianova  Mar 17, 2014 11:00 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

Russia’s economy is showing signs of a crisis, the government in Moscow said as the U.S. and the European Union announced sanctions over the country’s support for the Crimea region breaking away from Ukraine.

“The situation in the economy bears clear signs of a crisis,” Deputy Economy Minister Sergei Belyakov said in Moscow yesterday. The cabinet needs to refrain from raising the fiscal burden on companies, which would be the “wrong approach,” he said. “Taking money from companies and asking them afterward to modernize production is illogical and strange.”

Year of the PIIGS? Greece leads 2014 stock market league table

Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain have been the best performers in Europe so far in 2014

By Kyle Caldwell4:15PM GMT 25 Feb 2014

The Telegraph

Backers of the UK stock market are celebrating a steady start for the FTSE 100 in 2014 and a challenge of its 1999 all-time high of 6930. But its marginal gain of 1.3pc since the start of year is dwarfed by gains from some of the eurozone's most troubled economies.

Data from Russell Investments, an asset management firm, show Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece have been the best performers in Europe so far in 2014.

A workable euro zone fitness regime

February 17, 2014 @ 9:42 am

By Hugo Dixon

Reuters

The euro zone has gone from the emergency room to rehab. As often with patients, the question is how to maintain a stiff exercise regime now the immediate danger is over.

Germany has an idea. At December’s summit, it got the rest of the zone to agree in principle to what are called “partnerships for growth, jobs and competitiveness”. The idea is that governments will sign contracts committing them to do things like reform their labour markets, liberalise product markets and improve the efficiency of their public sectors. Countries such as Greece and Cyprus, which are already in bailout programmes, wouldn’t be covered.

France and Germany Lead Euro Zone to Higher Growth

By DAVID JOLLYFEB. 14, 2014

The New York Times

PARIS — The euro zone economy grew slightly faster than expected in the last three months of 2013, an official report showed on Friday, bringing welcome news for the global economy amid signs of slowing in the United States and China.

Although growth in the 18-nation currency union is still weak, at a 1.1 percent annualized rate, it was the euro zone’s third straight quarter in positive territory, indicating that the bloc is well beyond the year-and-a-half recession that ended in mid-2013.

For China, a Shift From Exports to Consumption

By BETTINA WASSENERJAN. 20, 2014

The New York Times

HONG KONG — BoConcept, a Danish furniture company that has more than 260 stores around the world, opened an outlet in Hong Kong last week amid flashing cameras, the deafening noise of drums and cymbals and a pair of lion dancers performing a traditional ceremony aimed at bringing good fortune to the shop.

The store is the first in Hong Kong for BoConcept, but the company already operates 18 in mainland China and is planning another six to eight across the country as it bets that rising affluence will continue to lift demand for its sleek sofas and coffee tables.