How does jailing the statisticians fix Greece’s financial crisis? It doesn’t.

By Anbar Aizenman, Anisha Chinwalla and Benjamin A.T. Graham
 March 13 at 5:00 AM

The Washington Post

The Greek government’s ongoing attempts to imprison Andreas Georgiou will reshape the Greek economy — in ways that may last for decades. Georgiou is a statistician who’s been accused by the government of inflating data on the size of the Greek deficit. He’s awaiting trial — for telling the truth about the Greek economy.

Georgiou has been acquitted in four trials since 2011, most recently in December. Greek politicians are still pushing the case, which is now at the Greek Supreme Court. Georgiou appears to be a convenient scapegoat for Greek politicians trying to avoid blame for their country’s ongoing financial crisis.

Greece Said to Expect Revised Bailout Proposal for Tuesday Talks

by Sotiris Nikas
28 February 2017, 4:03 π.μ. EET
Bloomberg
Greece’s auditors are pulling together a list of policies the country needs to implement to unlock additional bailout funds as they prepare for the resumption of talks with Athens on Tuesday, two people familiar with the matter said.

Greece has asked European lenders for a draft Supplemental Memorandum of Understanding and the International Monetary Fund for a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies as it braces for details of creditor demands, the people said, declining to be identified as negotiations between the two sides aren’t public. The government expects an accord in March or early April, but the scale of pending issues raises concerns they may be politically hard to sell at home, they said.

IMF Signals Greek Debt to Be Dealt With at End of Aid Program

by Birgit Jennen
22 February 2017, 8:41 μ.μ. EET

Bloomberg

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde signaled that Greek debt restructuring can wait and the country should focus on overhauling its economy for the duration of its latest bailout, which expires in 2018.

Germany wants Greece in euro zone, IMF says no special deals

BUSINESS NEWS | Mon Feb 13, 2017 | 5:20pm EST


By Jan Strupczewski and Joseph Nasr | BRUSSELS/BERLIN
Germany on Monday voiced support for Greece to stay in the euro zone and the European Commission dispatched a senior official to Athens to persuade it to take on further reforms to salvage its bailout accord.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde, meanwhile, remained firm that as a lender the IMF could not cut any special deals for the crisis-hit country, which has received three bailouts since 2010.

The moves came as the European Commission forecast a large jump in economic growth for Greece of 2.7 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, this year and next.

The IMF Staff Has It Right on Greece

FEB 8, 2017 2:00 AM EST
By Mohamed A. El-Erian
Bloomberg

When the International Monetary Fund’s board met Monday to discuss Greece, it was heartening to read that “most Executive Directors” agreed with the staff’s view that the country’s debt, at 179 percent of gross domestic product at the end of 2015, was “unsustainable.” Yet “some directors had different views on the fiscal path and debt sustainability.” This division within the board also applied to what Greece still needs to do with its budget. With the medium-term primary fiscal surplus heading to 1.5 percent of GDP, “most Directors agreed that Greece does not require further fiscal consolidation at this time.” But, again, “some Directors favored a surplus of 3.5 of GDP by 2018.”

Greece: Priorities for a Return to Sustainable Growth

(From the IMF site)
February 7, 2017

Greece should deepen and accelerate reforms, which, together with further debt relief, are needed to allow the economy to return to a sustainable growth path, the IMF said in its latest annual assessment of the Greek economy.

The IMF’s Article IV report notes that the country has made progress in reining in its fiscal and external deficits, although this has taken a heavy toll on society. The report identifies a path to sustainable growth and prosperity that requires a two-pronged approach: ambitious policies on the part of the Greek authorities and significant debt relief on the part of Greece’s European partners.

The Q&A below highlights some of the key issues about the country’s progress and its reform priorities for the period ahead.

Greece’s Response to its Resurgent Debt Crisis: Prosecute the Statistician

Andreas Georgiou, who became Athens’s statistics chief in 2010 to fix data fraud, now faces repeated accusations he manipulated figures to help impose austerity programs

By MARCUS WALKER
Feb. 6, 2017 10:53 a.m. ET
38 COMMENTS
ATHENS—Greece is struggling under its austerity regime and new questions are mounting as to whether it can satisfy its bailout terms. Some people in high places know just whom to blame—a statistician in rural Maryland.

Before Greece’s debt crisis, its governments manipulated statistics and masked the size of budget deficits, waste and patronage. The statistician, Andreas Georgiou, moved from the U.S. to become Greece’s first independent head of statistics in 2010. The European Union certified he subsequently fixed the omissions and reported the deficit in full.

On the contrary, Mr. Georgiou’s foes claim, he manipulated the deficit figures as part of a plot to force severe austerity on Greece under the 2010 bailout “Memorandum” imposed by the EU and International Monetary Fund.

The IMF Should Get Out of Greece

FEB 3, 2017 1:00 AM EST

Bloomberg

By
Ashoka Mody
The International Monetary Fund's involvement in Greece has been an unmitigated disaster: Time and again, its failure to heed crucial lessons has visited suffering upon the Greek people.  When the fund's directors meet on Monday, they should agree to forgive the country's debts and get out.


The IMF should never have gotten into Greece in the first place. As late as March 2010, with concerns about the Greek government's ability to pay its debts roiling markets, Europe's leaders wanted the IMF to stay away. Europeans feared that the fund’s financial assistance to one of their own would signal broader weakness in the currency union. As Jean-Claude Juncker famously put it: “If California had a refinancing problem, the United States wouldn’t go to the IMF.”

This Ancient City Would Still Be Among The Wealthiest In The World Today

By Sovereign Man on February 1, 2017 2:02 pm

Value Week

In the year 440 BC, more than two decades into the reign of Pericles, an audit of treasury in Athens showed a massive surplus of more than 9700 “talents”.

A talent was a common unit of measurement in the ancient world, especially for gold and silver.

And, based on today’s precious metals prices and the traditional gold/silver ratio (14:1) used by the ancient Greeks, 9700 talents is equivalent to about $700 million today.

At the time, Athens boasted a population of around 43,000 citizens and 28,500 foreign residents… so on a “per capita” basis, the ancient Athenian surplus amounted to just under $10,000 per person in today’s money.

Η Επιστολή Τσακαλώτου

 "Σε απάντηση της προκαταρκτικής αξιολόγησης των θεσμών για το επίδομα για τις συντάξεις και τν ΦΠΑ που ψηφίστηκαν από την ελληνική Βουλή και εφαρμόστηκαν από τις ελληνικές αρχές αλλά και τις απόψεις που εκφράστηκαν στην έκτακτη τηλεδιάσκεψη του Eurogroup στις 20 Δεκεμβρίου, θα ήθελα να καταστήσω σαφές τα ακόλουθα:

Σε ό,τι αφορά το μέτρο για τις συντάξεις, παρακαλώ να σημειωθεί ότι τόσο ο πρωθυπουργός όσο και εγώ ο ίδιος καταστήσαμε δημοσίως ξεκάθαρο, και θα συνεχίσουμε να το πράττουμε, ότι πρόκειται για ένα εφάπαξ ποσό που δεν θα έχει μόνιμη επίδραση στην πρόσφατη μεταρρύθμιση για τις συντάξεις. Σχετικά με την προσωρινή αναστολή της αύξησης του ΦΠΑ στα νησιά για συγκεκριμένα νησιά του Αιγαίου το μέτρο θα εφαρμοστεί μόνο για το 2017 και χρηματοδοτείται πλήρως από τον προϋπολογισμό του 2017.

Οι ελληνικές αρχές δεσμεύονται πλήρως να ακολουθήσουν το δημοσιονομικό πλαίσιο που έχει συμφωνηθεί και που βασίζεται στους στόχους για πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα 0,5%, 1,75% και 3,5% για το 2016, 2017 και 2018 αντίστοιχα. Οι ελληνικές αρχές θα ενεργοποιήσουν τον «δημοσιονομικό κόφτη» που θεσμοτήθηκε στο πλαίσιο της πρώτης αξιολόγησης όπως προβλέπεται στο νόμο 4389/16, σε περίπτωση που τα αποτελέσματα που θα επικυρωθούν από την Eurostat αποδεικνύουν ότι δεν έχουν επιτευχθεί οι στόχοι.

Greece Bailout Deadline Looms Ahead of Busy EU Election Schedule

by Eleni Chrepa  and Nikos Chrysoloras
26 Ιανουαρίου 2017, 2:00 π.μ. EET

Bloomberg

Greece has less than a month to iron out disagreements with its creditors over how to move forward with a rescue package that has been keeping the country afloat since 2010.

Euro-area finance ministers meeting in Brussels on Thursday will discuss how to complete a stalled bailout review, assure the involvement of the International Monetary Fund and unlock additional financial aid. A deal must be struck by the end of February, before as many as five European nations hold elections that will make negotiations politically difficult, according to an EU official familiar with the talks.

Desperate Eurozone to borrow BILLIONS to fund Greece rescue amid fears of crash

THE eurozone's bailout fund is borrowing tens of billions so it can fund a rescue plan for Greece, amid fears the country's debt crisis could once again send shockwaves through the bloc.

By LANA CLEMENTS
PUBLISHED: 13:53, Tue, Jan 10, 2017 | UPDATED: 17:48, Tue, Jan 10, 2017

Express

The Luxembourg agency responsible for doling out rescue money - the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) - is turning to markets to raise the extra cash needed for the Greek debt relief programme.

The ESM is now issuing €57billion (£49.5bn) in long-term bonds - up 14 per cent from original plans - to cover the bail-out programme.

Greece’s New Year of Living Dangerously

Tsipras is antagonizing creditors again, setting the stage for a new bailout showdown and an election.

The Wall Street Journal

By YANNIS PALAIOLOGOS
Dec. 21, 2016 3:05 p.m. ET
4 COMMENTS
If last year was the year of upheaval and survival for Alexis Tsipras, this year has been the year of the slow grind. As we near the end of 2016, Mr. Tsipras finds himself squeezed—by Germany and the International Monetary Fund, by Turkey and the refugee crisis, by his false promises and collapsing popularity—to the point of political extinction.

Euro zone lenders confident on quick solution on Greek debt spat: source

Wed Dec 21, 2016 | 1:57pm EST

 Reuters

Greece's euro zone lenders are confident a solution can be found shortly on reactivating short-term debt relief measures that were suspended after Athens decided to make an unexpected payout to poor pensioners, a euro zone source said on Wednesday.

Lenders said last week they were suspending a deal clinched earlier this month to offer Greece short-term debt relief after leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he would grant low-income pensioners a pre-Christmas payout.

Greece's Debt Problem Has Reached A Dangerous Point

DEC 21, 2016 @ 07:12 PM


John Mauldin ,   CONTRIBUTOR
I write about how you can make sense of unpredictable markets

Before the Italian banking crisis and referendum, before Brexit… there was Greece. Greece’s debt crisis was really the first public crack in the European Union’s armor and one that has yet to be repaired.

Readers who want to understand why anti-EU sentiment and nationalism have developed in many of these countries don’t have to look at migration or other controversial topics. Simply look at Greece and how it has fared after adopting the EU’s austerity terms.

The Greek experience with austerity-linked financial support from the EU has been painful and—making matters worse—rather ineffective. While Greece is on the periphery, its problems are hardwired into the entire EU, and those problems are spreading.

German Finance Minister tells paper euro zone will fall apart if don't follow rules

 Tue Dec 20, 2016 | 4:52am EST

Reuters

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, asked about Greece's plans to pay pensioners a Christmas bonus while it is in the midst of a bailout program, told Die Zeit paper that the euro zone would fall apart if countries did not stick to the rules.

Greece’s Long Winter

An early election would signal how much reform voters will support.

The Wall Street Journal

Dec. 19, 2016 7:11 p.m. ET
1 COMMENTS
Europe has a packed election schedule for 2017, and it’s set to grow more crowded if Greece holds another vote. The snap parliamentary poll that looks increasingly likely won’t solve the country’s economic problems, but at least the exercise would have the virtue of clarifying for Greeks and the rest of the eurozone how much reform Athens will be able to undertake.

France puts weight behind Greece in debt dispute

The Washington Post

By Associated Press December 15 at 9:06 AM
BRUSSELS — French President Francois Hollande has come to the defense of Greece after European creditors pulled a recently announced debt relief package for the country.

Hollande said ahead of Thursday’s summit of European Union leaders that “it is out of the question to ask for further additional efforts from Greece or prevent them from taking a number of sovereign measures that respect the commitments” that Greece previously took.

Greece Pushes Forward With Measures Opposed by Creditors

Eurozone froze debt-relief offer over plans for pensioner benefit and suspension of sales-tax rise

The Wall Street Journal

By MARCUS WALKER and  NEKTARIA STAMOULI
Updated Dec. 15, 2016 1:12 p.m. ET


ATHENS—Greece refused to back down in its rapidly escalating conflict with creditors, as lawmakers on Thursday passed measures to loosen the purse strings in a move that has angered Germany.

The fiscal largess, including a Christmas bonus for 1.6 million low-income pensioners and the suspension of a sales-tax increase on Aegean islands that have received refugees, led the eurozone to freeze debt-relief measures for Greece on Wednesday. Eurozone officials have criticized Athens for breaking promises to consult creditors before making any fiscal moves that could affect Greece’s bailout goals.

Eurozone Suspends Short-Term Debt Relief for Greece Amid Growing Friction

Move comes in response to Tsipras’s surprise fiscal gifts for pensioners and other Greeks, which creditors say run afoul of Athens’s bailout commitments

The Wall Street Journal

By VIKTORIA DENDRINOU
Dec. 14, 2016 12:18 p.m. ET


BRUSSELS—Greece’s European creditors suspended proposed debt-relief measures for the country after the Greek government surprised them by announcing it would boost welfare benefits for low-income pensioners, a sign of escalating tensions over the country’s bailout.

The moves come as Athens and its international creditors—which include the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund—are struggling to conclude their latest review of the country’s rescue plan of as much as €86 billion ($92 billion) in loans.