Greece's Debt Problem Has Reached A Dangerous Point

DEC 21, 2016 @ 07:12 PM


John Mauldin ,   CONTRIBUTOR
I write about how you can make sense of unpredictable markets

Before the Italian banking crisis and referendum, before Brexit… there was Greece. Greece’s debt crisis was really the first public crack in the European Union’s armor and one that has yet to be repaired.

Readers who want to understand why anti-EU sentiment and nationalism have developed in many of these countries don’t have to look at migration or other controversial topics. Simply look at Greece and how it has fared after adopting the EU’s austerity terms.

The Greek experience with austerity-linked financial support from the EU has been painful and—making matters worse—rather ineffective. While Greece is on the periphery, its problems are hardwired into the entire EU, and those problems are spreading.

German Finance Minister tells paper euro zone will fall apart if don't follow rules

 Tue Dec 20, 2016 | 4:52am EST

Reuters

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, asked about Greece's plans to pay pensioners a Christmas bonus while it is in the midst of a bailout program, told Die Zeit paper that the euro zone would fall apart if countries did not stick to the rules.

Greece’s Long Winter

An early election would signal how much reform voters will support.

The Wall Street Journal

Dec. 19, 2016 7:11 p.m. ET
1 COMMENTS
Europe has a packed election schedule for 2017, and it’s set to grow more crowded if Greece holds another vote. The snap parliamentary poll that looks increasingly likely won’t solve the country’s economic problems, but at least the exercise would have the virtue of clarifying for Greeks and the rest of the eurozone how much reform Athens will be able to undertake.

France puts weight behind Greece in debt dispute

The Washington Post

By Associated Press December 15 at 9:06 AM
BRUSSELS — French President Francois Hollande has come to the defense of Greece after European creditors pulled a recently announced debt relief package for the country.

Hollande said ahead of Thursday’s summit of European Union leaders that “it is out of the question to ask for further additional efforts from Greece or prevent them from taking a number of sovereign measures that respect the commitments” that Greece previously took.

Greece Pushes Forward With Measures Opposed by Creditors

Eurozone froze debt-relief offer over plans for pensioner benefit and suspension of sales-tax rise

The Wall Street Journal

By MARCUS WALKER and  NEKTARIA STAMOULI
Updated Dec. 15, 2016 1:12 p.m. ET


ATHENS—Greece refused to back down in its rapidly escalating conflict with creditors, as lawmakers on Thursday passed measures to loosen the purse strings in a move that has angered Germany.

The fiscal largess, including a Christmas bonus for 1.6 million low-income pensioners and the suspension of a sales-tax increase on Aegean islands that have received refugees, led the eurozone to freeze debt-relief measures for Greece on Wednesday. Eurozone officials have criticized Athens for breaking promises to consult creditors before making any fiscal moves that could affect Greece’s bailout goals.

Greece Heads Toward New Crisis in Debt Saga as Support for Tsipras Slumps

The ruling Syriza party is considering calling snap elections in 2017, as it loses hope of winning concessions on debt relief or austerity from Greece’s creditors

The Wall Street Journal

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI and  MARCUS WALKER
Dec. 12, 2016 1:48 p.m. ET
36 COMMENTS
ATHENS—Greece’s crisis is approaching a potential breaking point after a year of relative calm, as a government with declining political stamina confronts creditors’ unyielding demands.

The ruling left-wing Syriza party, grappling with slumping popularity, is considering the option of calling snap elections in 2017, as it loses hope of winning concessions on debt relief or austerity from the eurozone and International Monetary Fund.

No decision for elections has been made, said Greek officials, who added that they would review the state of negotiations in January, after pressing creditors again to show more flexibility.

The IMF is Not Asking Greece for More Austerity

Posted on December 12, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld and Poul M. Thomsen
Versions in عربي (Arabic); Français (French); Deutsch (German); ελληνικά (Greek); and Español (Spanish)
Greece is once again in the headlines as discussions for the second review of its European Stability Mechanism (ESM) program are gaining pace. Unfortunately, the discussions have also spurred some misinformation about the role and the views of the IMF. Above all, the IMF is being criticized for demanding more fiscal austerity, in particular for making this a condition for urgently needed debt relief. This is not true, and clarifications are in order.

Greece Needs Fiscal Breathing Room

We’ve exceeded our targets and ended up with a surplus. The wise thing to do would be to give it back to the citizens.

The Wall Street journal

By FRANCISCOS KOUTENTAKIS
Dec. 12, 2016 3:17 p.m. ET
0 COMMENTS
This will be the second year in a row that Greece has beaten its primary fiscal targets. In contrast to the pessimistic projections of its creditors, Greece’s authorities have proved themselves capable of delivering on the country’s promises.

Βερολίνο: "Οι εξαγγελίες Τσίπρα δεν συζητήθηκαν στο Eurogroup"

Άγνοια των παροχών Τσίπρα είχε το γερμανικό υπουργείο Οικονομικών και το Eurogroup. Ως επικοινωνιακή φυγή προς τα εμπρός λόγω των εσωπολιτικών πιέσεων βλέπουν γερμανοί αρθρογράφοι τις χριστουγεννιάτικες παροχές του.


deutsche welle

Ούτε το γερμανικό υπουργείο των Οικονομικών, αλλά ούτε και το Eurogroup γνώριζε για τις χθεσινοβραδινές εξαγγελίες του έλληνα πρωθυπουργού σχετικά με τις παροχές προς τους χαμηλοσυνταξιούχους και το πάγωμα του ΦΠΑ στα νησιά των Αιγαίου με μεγάλη προσφυγική ροή. Σε ερώτησηπου απηύθυνε η Deutsche Welle προς την εκπρόσωπο του γερμανικού υπουργείου Οικονομικών, εάν είχε γνώση των εξαγγελιών Τσίπρα το υπουργείο της, η Φρεντερίκε φον Τιζενχάουζεν μας απάντησε ως εξής: «Όχι, το θέμα δεν συζητήθηκε ούτε και στο Eurogroup της περασμένης Δευτέρας. Αλλά είναι υπόθεση των θεσμών να αξιολογούν τέτοιου είδους μέτρα».
Ο γερμανικός τύπος κάνει αναφορά στο αιφνιδιαστικό, όπως το χαρακτηρίζει, διάγγελμα του έλληνα πρωθυπουργού προς τον ελληνικό λαό με παροχές προς τους συνταξιούχους και τους κατοίκους νησιών με πολλούς πρόσφυγες. Ορισμένοι αρθρογράφοι εκφράζουν έκπληξη για αυτήν την κίνηση του κ. Τσίπρα σε μια κρίσιμη περίοδο έντονων αντιπαραθέσεων και αγώνα δρόμου προκειμένου να κλείσει η δεύτερη αξιολόγηση.

Greece, Not Italy, Still Poses Biggest Challenge to Eurozone

A crisis in one country only becomes a crisis for the whole eurozone when a collective European response is required, Simon Nixon writes

The Wall Street Journal

By SIMON NIXON
Dec. 7, 2016 3:27 p.m. ET
4 COMMENTS
Not for the first time this year, the doom-mongers have been confounded. The Italian referendum over the weekend resulted in a resounding defeat for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who promptly announced his resignation. Yet the sky didn’t fall in, the euro dipped and then rallied, and Italian bonds and bank stocks barely budged. Other European assets were also largely unmoved.

Give Greece Credit, Even Just for Treading Water

25DEC 6, 2016 1:23 AM EST
By
Mark Gilbert
Bloomberg

Here are two things I'll bet most people don't know about Greece. The country's just-appointed minister of economy and development, Dimitri Papadimitriou, was lured away from his position as head of the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College in America. He's not a member of the ruling Syriza party. And the man appointed secretary general for public revenue in January is Giorgos Pitsillis, a professional tax lawyer. He's not a party member, either.

Europe's Still Dithering Over Greece

Bloomberg
Editorial Board
DEC 7, 2016 12:30 AM EST
This week, the European Union’s finance ministers granted some new debt relief to Greece. The new “short-term” measures are better than nothing -- but they’re less than a convincing solution to a problem that has dragged on far too long.

The deal, sketched out and agreed to in principle earlier this year, should help the Greek government convince voters to keep accepting much-needed domestic reform. That’s good. It isn’t enough, though, to put the country’s debts and budget plans on a sustainable footing. That’s why the International Monetary Fund, whose support will be necessary to achieve that larger goal, isn’t yet on board. After years of muddling through, the issue still isn’t resolved.

Eurozone Finance Ministers Agree to Some Debt Relief for Greece’s Bailout

Maturities extended and interest rates locked on some Greek debt but no agreement yet on IMF participation

The Wall Street Journal

By VIKTORIA DENDRINOU and  NEKTARIA STAMOULI
Updated Dec. 5, 2016 4:10 p.m. ET

BRUSSELS—Eurozone finance ministers, seeking to get the International Monetary Fund to participate in Greece’s bailout, agreed on a package of short-term measures that could ease the country’s debt load by around a fifth in 2060.

The ministers, gathering in Brussels for their monthly meeting on Monday, had hoped to move closer to agreeing on a set of overhauls Greece must enact under its bailout—which could reach €86 billion ($92.3 billion)—as well as a series of debt-relief measures from its European creditors. Both steps are required to get the IMF to participate in the bailout.

Greece sees final solution on debt crisis amid euro uncertainty

Sun Dec 4, 2016 | 12:22pm EST

Reuters

Political uncertainty in Europe has created fresh momentum for a "comprehensive and permanent" solution to the Greek debt crisis before the year ends, a government spokesman said on Sunday.

Euro zone finance ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss short-term debt relief for Greece, and Germany's Wolfgang Schaeuble said it must implement reforms instead of hoping for further debt forgiveness.

Greece remained optimistic for a final debt deal, however, just as Italians are voting on a constitutional referendum on Sunday and a victory for the opposition 'No' camp may push the euro zone toward fresh crisis.

Greece and Its Creditors Get Back on a Collision Course

Greece’s woes oblige the eurozone to do something it has rarely appeared capable of doing: take a collective political decision, Simon Nixon writes.

The Wall Street Journal

By SIMON NIXON
Updated Dec. 4, 2016 1:44 p.m. ET
9 COMMENTS
In a continent beset by multiple crises, Greece remains the cradle of European dysfunction. The country may have dropped out of the headlines in recent months, its multiple challenges seemingly buried under a tide of bailout cash. Yet it still presents the greatest risk to the survival of the eurozone. That is because Greece’s circumstances oblige the eurozone to do something it has so far appeared incapable of doing, except under conditions of extreme financial stress: take a collective political decision.

WHY THE FRAGILE STABILITY IN GREECE MAY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER

A crunch summit with creditors begins Monday.
BY JOSH LOWE ON 12/3/16 AT 2:59 PM

Newsweek

It was late November in Athens, and the city felt empty. A string of surprise thunderstorms kept people imprisoned indoors and outside the Greek parliament in Syntagma Square—where anti-austerity protests raged throughout the summer of 2015—was bare but for a few brave tourists and one quizzical-looking stray dog watching the Evzones guards perform their distinctive, shuffling shift change routine, complete with pom-pom shoes and kilts. With so much unrest elsewhere in Europe, it would be easy to think Greece is heading toward relative quietude.

The coming weeks could change all that. On December 5, the finance ministers of the Eurozone will meet in Brussels for their last scheduled summit of the year. On the agenda is the ongoing second review of Greece’s bailout program, which since 2015 has allowed the country to receive financial assistance from European creditors that will eventually total €86 billion ($91.7 billion) in exchange for carrying out reforms including shrinking the public sector, reining in government spending and raising taxes.

Greece needs reforms, not debt relief: Germany's Schaeuble

 Sat Dec 3, 2016 | 6:30pm EST

Reuters

Structural reforms rather than debt relief will help Greece to achieve sustainable growth and stay in the euro zone because rates and repayment are putting hardly any burden on its budget, Gerany's finance minister was quoted as saying on Sunday.

Euro zone finance ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss short-term measures to lighten Greece's debt burden and to assess Athens' progress in reforms required within its third bailout program.

Asked in an interview by Bild am Sonntag newspaper whether it might be time to tell German voters that a debt cut for Greece was inevitable, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said: "That would not help Greece."

Eurozone Bailout Fund Proposes Short-Term Debt Relief for Greece

ESM proposes extension on some maturities and locking in the interest on some loans to ease Greece’s debt load

The Wall Street Journal

By VIKTORIA DENDRINOU
Updated Nov. 30, 2016 7:57 a.m. ET
2 COMMENTS
BRUSSELS—Confidential proposals drawn up by the eurozone’s bailout fund could reduce Greece’s debt load by about a fifth in 2060.

A six-page document, dated Nov. 25 and seen by The Wall Street Journal, was produced by the European Stability Mechanism, the Luxembourg-based eurozone bailout fund. It outlines measures that could be taken in the near future to reduce Greece’s large debt load.

The paper proposes to ease Greece’s debt load by extending some maturities and locking in the interest on some of Greece’s loans to shield it from future interest-rate increases.

Tired of Syriza, Greece embraces a mainstream party

The centre-right New Democracy party is dull, technocratic and leading the polls
Dec 3rd 2016 | ATHENS


The Economist

THE headquarters of New Democracy, a centre-right political party, is in an unexpected part of Athens. The building, surrounded by warehouses, housed a branch of a Japanese technology firm before standing derelict for years. Few other political types are nearby. The rent, at €9,800 ($10,400) a month, is a tenth of what the party’s old office used to cost. Yet the relocation, which happened in August, is also symbolic. As the opposition party has moved to a cheaper part of town, so too does it hope that it can present itself to the public as a new, improved alternative to the Greek government. With Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister (pictured, on the left), growing less popular, New Democracy may well have a chance.

Eurogroup should be 'realistic' on Greece fiscal targets: Dijsselbloem

Tue Nov 29, 2016 | 4:45am EST

Reuters

The chair of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers said on Tuesday that European lenders should be "realistic" in the fiscal targets they set for Greece after 2018, when a program of financial aid will end.

"We need to be realistic," Jeroen Dijsselbloem told the economic affairs committee of the European Parliament, saying that the International Monetary Fund has a point when it says "running a primary surplus of 3.5 percent for a very long time is a huge thing to ask".