China at a crossroads

Robert J. Samuelson

Opinion Writer

The Washington Post

It has been only a few years since China was widely regarded as an unstoppable economic colossus. For three decades, its economy grew about 10 percent annually; China seemed to be gliding through the global economic storm. Well, maybe not. Many economists — Chinese and foreign — think China’s economic model is unworkable. Without a new model, they say, China will someday face a collapse of growth or worse. The outcome has huge implications for China’s internal stability and its global economic footprint. The precedent of Japan, a highflier laid low, suggests that rapid growth can’t be taken for granted.

ECB's Noyer: Rates must remain low, could go lower if needed

(Reuters) - European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer said on Monday that interest rates have to remain low for an extended period and might go even lower if needed as officials try to ensure the euro zone does not fall into deflation.

Central bankers have to invent policies to achieve price stability if conventional monetary policy stops working, Noyer said, suggesting the ECB will keep its options open after a surprise slowdown in inflation.

"We see risks that low inflation will remain for some time," Noyer said at a conference in Tokyo.

"Light at the end of the tunnel" for Greece?

Deutsche Welle

Greece is on the right track, said Chancellor Merkel after meeting with Greek Prime Minister Samaras in Berlin. Samaras used the occasion to hold the EU, ECB and IMF Troika to past promises of relief.

Things are going forward in highly indebted Greece, at least that's the way Germany's chancellor saw it. "The prime minister was able to present a series of impressive facts to me, and Greece has made significant progress," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after a meeting with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras at the Chancellery in Berlin. "A lot has been accomplished there in the last few years."

The extent of the praise is surprising given Germany's recent disagreement with European partners regarding Greece's next tranche from its second aid package. The Troika, comprised of the EU, ECB and IMF, has been seeking Greek clarification of a 1.5 billion euro ($2 billion) gap in the country's 2014 budget plans. EU countries had also criticized Greece for its lack of progress with regard to reforms.

France With Italy, Spain Seek Flexibility in Euro Budget Talks

By Ian Wishart & James G. Neuger - Nov 22, 2013 10:48 PM GMT+0200.

Bloomberg

France, Italy and Spain sought to maximize the flexibility of European Union budget-deficit rules to boost their economies as northern euro-area countries saw little need for stimulus.

The growth-versus-austerity debate was renewed at a meeting of finance ministers in Brussels today, as euro-area governments attempted to coordinate budget policy for 2014 using powers that were introduced earlier this year as part of their response to a debt crisis now in its fifth year.

“No, no, no,” Italian Finance Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni told reporters when asked whether his government would modify its budget. “Reducing the debt load is also our goal, and we managed that both with fiscal policies by reducing the shortfalls and with additional measures that they have now fully understood.”

Euro rises after unexpectedly strong German data

BY JULIE HAVIV

NEW YORK Fri Nov 22, 2013 4:20pm EST

(Reuters) - The euro rose to a four-year peak against the yen and gained for a second straight day against the dollar on Friday as unexpectedly robust German business sentiment data raised the appeal of the euro zone common currency.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials saying a reduction in stimulus would be discussed at next month's monetary policy meeting failed to boost the dollar. Analysts said the market has already priced in talk of Fed tapering asset purchases in December, limiting its impact on the greenback.

UPDATE 1-Greek budget predicts higher surplus, maintains growth target

Thu Nov 21, 2013 5:19am EST

Nov 21 (Reuters) - Greece more than doubled its forecast for a budget surplus before interest payments this year and confirmed it will emerge from a six-year recession next year, hinting there is light at the end of the tunnel for its battered economy.

After nearly going bankrupt and crashing out of the euro zone last year, Athens has been buoyed by more positive economic news in recent months as tourism revenues rise and it makes progress in bringing its finances back on track.

Αυξήθηκε 18,4 δισ. το δημόσιο χρέος

Ναυτεμπορική 21-11-2013

Σημαντική αύξηση κατά 18,4 δισ. ευρώ παρουσίασε το δημόσιο χρέος στο γ’ τρίμηνο του 2013, σε σύγκριση με το γ’ τρίμηνο του 2012, καταδεικνύοντας το τεράστιο πρόβλημα που εξακολουθεί να υφίσταται έπειτα από δύο «κουρέματα».

Unhappy with the Troika, Greece turns to Berlin

Deutsche Welle

20-11-2013

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is set to arrive in Berlin for talks on Friday. Despite Greece's economic troubles, the government, experts say, is in a better position to negotiate today than in the past.

In early November, it was far from clear whether any agreements would be reached during a visit to Greece by the country's lenders, the so-called Troika consisting of the EU Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Significant differences stood between the Greek coalition government and its lenders.

China dismisses as absurd Spanish arrest warrants over Tibet

MADRID Wed Nov 20, 2013 4:51am EST

(Reuters) - Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin and ex prime minister Li Peng could face arrest when travelling abroad over allegations they committed genocide in Tibet, a Spanish court ruled on Tuesday, in a case Beijing has dismissed as absurd.

Two Tibetan support groups and a monk with Spanish nationality brought the case against the former leaders in 2006 using Spanish law, which allows suspects to be tried for human rights abuses committed abroad when a Spanish victim is involved.

OECD Cuts Global Growth Outlook on Emerging-Market Slowdown

By Mark Deen - Nov 19, 2013 12:54 PM GMT+0200

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next as emerging-market economies including India and Brazil cool.

The world economy will probably expand 2.7 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year, instead of the 3.1 percent and and 4 percent predicted in May, the Paris-based OECD said in a semi-annual report today.

Record tourist receipts next year may help end Greece's long recession

BY RENEE MALTEZOU

ATHENS Tue Nov 19, 2013 6:26am EST

(Reuters) - Greek tourism revenues should rise 13 percent to a record 13 billion euros in 2014, the head of the main industry body said on Tuesday, boosting chances the country will finally emerge from its deep recession next year.

Tourism is the biggest cash earner for Greece's economy, accounting for about 17 percent of its 185 billion-euro economic output. It employs one in five Greeks.

China Reshapes Landscape for Firms From Alibaba to GM

By Jasmine Wang - Nov 19, 2013

Bloomberg

China’s planned economic reforms are poised to reshape the competitive landscape, allowing private companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to compete with state-owned banks and easing the one-child policy to bolster demand for products from Nestle SA (NESN) to General Motors Co. (GM)

Plans to change the nation’s financial sector include a new registration system for initial public offerings and allowing qualified private investors to set up small-to-medium sized banks. Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700), Asia’s biggest Internet company, is part of a group applying for a banking license in China.

Greece's NBG nears deal to sell property unit: sources

BY GEORGE GEORGIOPOULOS

ATHENS Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:15pm EST

(Reuters) - National Bank of Greece, the country's largest lender, is close to clinching a deal to sell a majority stake in its fully-owned real estate arm Pangaia to private equity firm Invel Real Estate, two bankers close to the deal told Reuters on Sunday.

The sale is part of restructuring efforts by National Bank (NBG) (NBGr.AT) aimed at boosting its capital base.

Greece's top four banks are implementing restructuring plans agreed with the European Commission as part of conditions imposed for their bailouts. The plans involve job cuts, branch closures and asset sales.

Greece's Golden Dawn gains support after members killed-poll

ATHENS Sat Nov 16, 2013 2:01pm EST

(Reuters) - Support for Greece's far-right Golden Dawn party has grown since two members were gunned down by unknown assailants this month, an opinion poll released on Saturday showed.

The party, Greece's third most popular, had shed almost a third of support following the fatal stabbing in September of an anti-fascism rapper blamed on a Golden Dawn sympathizer.

Previously Unknown Group Says It Shot Greek Extremists

By Alkman Granitsas

The Wall Steet Journal

Urban Guerrillas Say They Killed Two and Injured One in Retaliation for Rap Artist's Murder

A previously unknown urban guerrilla group has claimed responsibility for the shooting of three alleged members of Greece's far-right Golden Dawn party earlier this month outside local party offices in a suburb north of Athens.

China says Xinjiang police station attacked by axe, knife-wielding mob, 11 dead

BEIJING Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:27am EST

(Reuters) - Eleven people were killed and two injured in China's troubled far-west region of Xinjiang when a group of people armed with axes and knifes attacked a police station on Saturday, state media reported on Sunday.

Around the World, Inflation Is Falling to Levels Not Seen for Years

The New York  Times

November 15, 2013

By FLOYD NORRIS

AMERICAN inflation, which has seemed to some conservative economists to be an impending threat ever since the Federal Reserve began to buy large quantities of government securities, appears to be falling to levels lower than any seen in recent years. There are similar declines in many European countries.

JPMorgan’s Fruitful Ties to a Member of China’s Elite

NOVEMBER 13, 2013, 10:00 PM

The New York Times

By DAVID BARBOZA, JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG and BEN PROTESS

To promote its standing in China, JPMorgan Chase turned to a seemingly obscure consulting firm run by a 32-year-old executive named Lily Chang.

Ms. Chang’s firm, which received a $75,000-a-month contract from JPMorgan, appeared to have only two employees. And on the surface, Ms. Chang lacked the influence and public name recognition needed to unlock business for the bank.

China: The Next Phase Of Reform

Forbes

The commitment and ability of China’s leaders to follow through on new policies and to meet rising expectations will be tested as they strive to balance competing social, economic, political and security challenges. Three decades ago, China embarked on a new path, creating a framework that encouraged the country’s rapid economic rise. The successes of those policies have transformed China, and the country’s leadership now faces another set of strategic choices to address China’s new economic and international position.

Greece's Eurobank announces 2 billion euro share issue

ATHENS Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:56pm EST

(Reuters) - Eurobank, Greece's No. 3 lender, said on Thursday it would sell 2 billion euros ($2.7 billion) worth of new shares at the end of the year as part of a plan to return to private ownership after a bailout in 2012.