Greek Elections, Democracy, Political Trilemma, and all that

08/01/2015 by Dani Rodrik

From the site http://www.socialeurope.eu/

Two-and-a-half years ago I wrote a short piece titled “The End of the World as We Know It” which began like this:

Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions.

Greece: this time is different. It just isn't any less dangerous

by  Geoffrey Smith  @Geoffreytsmith  JANUARY 8, 2015, 12:18 PM EST

Fortune

Greece and others have tired of austerity. Do Berlin, Frankfurt and Brussels still have the will to face them down?

It’s fair to say that this iteration of the Greek debt crisis is different. But that doesn’t justify the kind of complacency financial markets are showing.

Things may indeed be different in the details from 2012, when Greece nearly left the currency union, dragging half a dozen other countries with it. The problem is, the big picture has changed, if anything, for the worse. This time is just as dangerous as last time because the Eurozone still doesn’t have the political institutions to back its currency, and probably never will have.

Euro sinks to fresh nine-year low

 BBC

8 January 2015 Last updated at 15:52 GMT

The euro has hit a fresh nine-year low against the dollar, in part after a surprise decrease in German manufacturing.

German factory orders fell by 2.4% in November compared with the previous month, worse than expected.

A crowded field

Syriza edges closer to victory, but with uncertainty over its coalition partner

Jan 10th 2015 | ATHENS |

The Economist

THE far-left Syriza party continues to hold a small but steady lead in the polls ahead of Greece’s election on January 25th. After such a long period ahead of the ruling party, this lead seems unlikely to be overturned in just two-and-a-half weeks, say pollsters.

Don’t Believe the Hype: Why Germany Needs Greece to Stay in Euro

By Simon Kennedy  Jan 8, 2015 1:08 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

Don’t believe the hype.

A reading of the German press suggests Chancellor Angela Merkel is at peace with the idea of Greece quitting the euro. Der Spiegel says her government views that as a manageable outcome; Bild reports that officials are preparing for the prospect. Lawmaker Michael Fuchs says Greece is no longer a threat to financial stability.

All that is mostly posturing for an electorate tired of the aid and angst Greece has demanded since 2010. In fact, Germany has no interest in risking the dissolution of the single currency that a Grexit could entail.

Greek Opposition Still Holds Slim Lead in Polls Before Elections

Syriza Party Ahead in Voter Surveys, but Narrow Margin Shrinks

By ALKMAN GRANITSAS

Updated Jan. 7, 2015 4:15 p.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal

ATHENS—Greece’s leftist opposition party continued to hold a narrow lead ahead of this month’s national elections, although it appears to be shrinking, two public opinion polls showed Wednesday.

The polls show the Syriza party, which opposes Greece’s financial bailout and its economic reforms, garnering between 28.5% and 31.6% of the vote, placing it ahead of the governing New Democracy party, which has been implementing the economic austerity measures.

New Democracy would get between 25.3% and 28.6% of the vote, according to the two polls, for the Mega television channel and the weekly To Pontiki newspaper.

A Weary Greece Considers Its Options

By THE EDITORIAL BOARDJAN. 3, 2015

The New York Times

The human toll of the economic crisis in Greece has been significant: Rates of hunger, suicide and unemployment have increased sharply, thanks to years of misguided austerity policies. So it is hardly shocking that polls are showing that voters are likely to give control of Parliament to the leftist political party Syriza in an election later this month.

Samaras Warns of Euro Exit Risk as Greek Campaign Starts

By Leon Mangasarian  Jan 5, 2015 9:46 AM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

Greece’s political parties embarked on a flash campaign for elections in less than three weeks that Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said will determine the fate of the country’s membership in the euro currency area.

Samaras used a Jan. 2 speech to warn that victory for the main opposition Syriza party would cause default and Greece’s exit from the 19-member euro region, while Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras said his party would end German-led austerity. Der Spiegel magazine reported Chancellor Angela Merkel is ready to accept a Greek exit, a development Berlin sees as inevitable and manageable if Syriza wins, as polls suggest.

The odds of Greece leaving the euro have never been higher

By Matt O'Brien December 29, 2014

The Washington Post

Beware Greeks bearing the same political crisis over and over again. Because eventually this will be how the euro crisis ends: not with a bailout, but a ballot.

It's a tale as old as Homer, or at least it seems that way. The Greek government, you see, has once again collapsed under the weight of the country's austerity program, and anti-bailout parties are leading the polls ahead of new elections. This time, not that it really matters, the ruling coalition led by the right-of-center party New Democracy fell apart after it couldn't get its presidential nominee, a largely ceremonial role, confirmed in three tries. What does matter, though, is whether New Democracy, which is still running a close second, can hold on to power in the snap elections scheduled for Jan. 25. If it can't, then the far-left party Syriza will get its chance to lead Greece in a high-stakes game of chicken with Germany.

The euro’s next crisis

Why an early election spells big dangers for Greece—and for the euro

The Economist

EVER since the euro crisis erupted in late 2009 Greece has been at or near its heart. It was the first country to receive a bail-out, in May 2010. It was the subject of repeated debate over a possible departure from the single currency (the so-called Grexit) in 2011 and again in 2012. It is the only euro country whose official debt has been restructured. On December 29th the Greek parliament failed to elect a president, forcing an early snap election to be called for January 25th. The euro crisis is entering a new, highly dangerous phase, and once again Greece finds itself at the centre.

European Stocks Drop as Greece’s ASE Tumbles After Vote Results

By Jonathan Morgan  Dec 29, 2014 12:41 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

European stocks extended losses after Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed in his third and final attempt to get enough backing for his presidential candidate.

Greece faces election after lawmakers fail to elect president

BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS

ATHENS Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:03am EST

(Reuters) - Greek lawmakers failed to elect a new president in a final round of voting on Monday, leaving the country facing an early election that could derail the international bailout program it needs to keep paying its bills.

Greek MPs' vote triggers snap poll

BBC 

29 December 2014 Last updated at 10:41 GMT

Greek MPs have rejected the presidential candidate nominated by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, triggering a snap general election.

Συναγερμός στην Τ.τ.Ε. για να μην ξεμείνει από ρευστό το Δημόσιο

Πηγή:www.reporter.gr

«Εκεί που πήγε να γίνει κάτι, εκεί που οι τράπεζες σχεδίαζαν αυξήσεις κεφαλαίου για μειώσουν τη συμμετοχή του κράτους στη μετοχική τους σύνθεση, εκεί που το 2015 θα χρηματοδοτούσαν την πραγματική οικονομία, γυρίζουμε πάλι στον ζόφο», υποστήριξε νωρίς το πρωί της Τετάρτης κορυφαία τραπεζική πηγή.

Συναγερμός έχει σημάνει στην Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος στην  περίπτωση που εξαιτίας της πολιτικής αβεβαιότητας δεν υπάρξει συμφωνία με τους πιστωτές και το Δημόσιο ξεμείνει από ρευστό για την κάλυψη των αναγκών του.  Περίπου δέκα μέρες μετά το sos που εξέπεμψε ο διοικητής της Τραπέζης Ελλάδος κ. Ι. Στουρνάρας προς τα κόμματα να υπάρξει συναίνεση προκειμένου να έρθει η συμφωνία με τους δανειστές, διαφορετικά η χώρα κινδυνεύει να μπει σε περιπέτειες, η διοίκηση της Κεντρικής Τράπεζας της χώρας, λαμβάνει τα μέτρα της, έστω κι αν αυτά είναι εις βάρος του εγχώριου τραπεζικού συστήματος.

Euro Seen as Shield by Lithuanian Banker Wary of Russia

By Milda Seputyte  Dec 23, 2014 12:08 PM GMT+0200

 Bloomberg

On the eve of Lithuania’s euro adoption, the Baltic country’s top banker says Russia’s actions in Ukraine have pushed him into forbidden territory.

“The euro is an instrument for our deeper integration: the closer we are to the West, the further we are from the east,” Vitas Vasiliauskas said in an interview in Vilnius, the capital. “As a central bank governor, I shouldn’t get myself involved in geopolitical discussions. But these are the facts today.”

ISIS’s Harrowing Sexual Violence Toward Yezidi Women Revealed

Tessa Berenson @tcberenson  Dec. 22, 2014

ΤΙΜΕ

ISIS is capturing Yezidi women and keeping them in sexual slavery

Militants with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have enslaved and sexually brutalized scores of women, selling them into marriage or giving them as gifts to militant fighters, according to a new report.

Since August, ISIS has captured hundreds, if not thousands of Yezidi women and girls and taken them into sexual slavery as part of an ethnic cleansing movement, the Amnesty International report says. The Yezidis are a Kurdish ethnoreligious minority group that has been historically oppressed by Sunni extremists.

Peshmerga forces heave Isis away from Mount Sinjar

As many as 300 militants are believed killed as US-led airstrikes assist the Kurdistan regional government in northern Iraq

Fazel Hawramy on Mount Sinjar

The Guardian, Sunday 21 December 2014 21.55 GMT

Kurdish peshmerga forces backed by US-led air strikes pushed Islamic State militants out of a large area around Mount Sinjar in northern Iraq, according to Kurdish officials.

“We have managed to free 3,000 sq km during the last 24 hours,” Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, told reporters on top of Mount Sinjar. “Most of Sinjar is under our control now and with the help of God, we will free all of it.”

The Kurdistan regional government mobilised close to 10,000 peshmerga fighters last week in an ongoing operation to drive Isis from the Sinjar area, which is near the Syrian border.

Euro shaky on ECB and Greece, dollar keeps edge

BY IAN CHUA AND HIDEYUKI SANO

SYDNEY/TOKYO Sun Dec 21, 2014 9:24pm EST

(Reuters) - The euro probed fresh two-year lows early on Monday in a subdued start to a holiday-shortened week, extending a multi-month trend of weakness against the dollar that many traders say will remain intact in the new year.

Speculation is high that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be forced to expand its asset-buying program to include sovereign debt in early 2015, at a time when the Federal Reserve is preparing to do the opposite and lift interest rates.

Author's journey inside ISIS: They're 'more dangerous than people realize'

By Frederik Pleitgen, CNN

December 22, 2014 -- Updated 0618 GMT (1418 HKT)

(CNN) -- Juergen Todenhoefer's journey was a tough one: dangerous, but also eye-opening. The author traveled deep into ISIS territory -- the area they now call their "caliphate" -- visiting Raqqa and Deir Ezzor in Syria, as well as Mosul in Iraq.

Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, was taken by ISIS in a Blitzkrieg-like sweep in June.

Todenhoefer managed to visit the Mosque there where the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi, gave his only ever public address.

And he saw the realities of daily life under ISIS, with all shops having to close for prayers in the middle of the day.

"There is an awful sense of normalcy in Mosul," Todenhoefer said in an exclusive interview with CNN.

Will Pakistan’s grief force it to cut ties with Islamic militants?

By Matthew Green December 17, 2014

Pakistan’s army knew it would pay a price when it launched an offensive in the mountains of North Waziristan. But even in their worst imaginings, few officers could have foreseen the way revenge would be served: an attack on an Army-run school that cost the lives of 132 students. Many were the teenage sons of soldiers.