A “Merkel Plan” for Europe

JAN 19, 2015

By Bill Emmott

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-modern-marshall-plan-by-bill-emmott-2015-01

LONDON – Ever since Europe’s economic crisis erupted more than four years ago, politicians and pundits have clamored for a grand solution, often invoking the example of America’s postwar Marshall Plan, which, starting in 1948, helped to rebuild Western Europe’s shattered, debt-ridden economies. But the political moment has never been ripe. That could be about to change.

Europe’s situation today bears some similarities to the 1940s. Burdened by the public debts resulting from past mistakes, eurozone governments know what they need to do but not how to do it. They mistrust each other too much to collaborate. Meanwhile, demand in most of the European Union is weak, ruling out the economic growth needed to repay debts and offer hope to the 25 million unemployed.

Samaras Adrift as Syriza Lead Widens Before Greek Vote

By Nikos Chrysoloras and Paul Tugwell  Jan 20, 2015 1:48 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

Syriza widened its lead over Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy in three opinion surveys just days before the general election, prompting one pollster to say the race was all but decided.

Syriza, an acronym for Coalition of the Radical Left, led by between 4 percentage points and 6.5 percentage points in separate surveys conducted by GPO, Alco and the University of Macedonia based in Thessaloniki. That’s up from about 3 points last week.

An impasse in Paris, a gamble in Athens: how Greece returned to crisis

Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:00am EST

* Political uncertainty weighed on bailout review talks

* PM Samaras had little room for more austerity

* Failed talks, uncertainty prompted PM to call forward vote

By Renee Maltezou, Lefteris Papadimas and Deepa Babington

ATHENS, Jan 21 (Reuters) - After four years of economic sacrifices, Greece bet it could agree an early end to its international bailout. Instead a stand off with creditors in a Paris townhouse led to new political uncertainty and another euro zone storm.

Greece’s Syriza Leads in Polls as General Election Looms

Leftist Opposition Party Widens Lead, According to Survey in Newspaper To Vima

Wall Street Journal

By STELIOS BOURAS

Jan. 18, 2015 9:48 a.m. ET

ATHENS—Greece’s leftist Syriza party is holding its lead in opinion polls a week ahead of a key general election, amid signs that political uncertainty is taking a growing toll on the economy.

Lessons from the 2012 Greek debt restructuring

Miranda Xafa 25 June 2014

The 2012 Greek debt restructuring was the largest one in the history of sovereign defaults. This column discusses the lessons from this historically unprecedented episode. Delaying the restructuring implied that externally held debt remained higher than it would have been otherwise. Supportive crisis management is necessary for smooth restructuring to take place in a currency union.

http://www.voxeu.org/article/greek-debt-restructuring-lessons-learned

The Real Social Challenge Is Kickstarting Growth

19/01/2015 by George Pagoulatos

http://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/01/social-challenge/

It is impossible to meaningfully address Europe’s social challenges for the present, medium and longer term without addressing the central challenge of economic growth. We are now in a situation where adverse longer-term trends are nested in a highly unfavourable current and medium-term economic environment.

Greece's Alpha Bank, Eurobank applied for ELA funding-source

ATHENS Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:34am EST

Jan 16 (Reuters) - Greece's Alpha Bank and Eurobank were the two lenders that applied for emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) from the Greek central bank, a banking source told Reuters on Friday.

A Eurobank investor relations executive confirmed it had applied for the emergency funding. Alpha Bank declined to comment.

Increased deposit outflows since Greece called snap elections slated for Jan. 25, coupled with government T-bill issues have squeezed banks' liquidity levels. (Reporting by George Georgiopoulos, editing by Deepa Babington)

Politics Risk Tripping Up Greece on Debt Relief

Greece’s debt looks fairly manageable. It’s politics that makes it problematic.

By STEPHEN FIDLER

Updated Jan. 15, 2015 5:26 p.m. ET

2 COMMENTS

Does Greece need debt relief? Alexis Tsipras, leader of the left-wing Syriza Party and the man who could be Greece’s next prime minister, says it does.

“There is no single sensible person in the whole of Europe who seriously thinks that Greece’s debt is sustainable and must be repaid in full,” he said in a speech on Tuesday.

Αδημοσίευτο μνημόνιο: Τι προβλέπει για δαπάνες, δημόσιο, ιδιωτικοποιήσεις, χωροταξικό, μεταφορές

 (Σ.Σ..Πρόκειται για κείμενα που περιγράφουν τα μέτρα που προβλέπονται από την σύμβαση του Ελληνικού κράτους και των δανειστών τους και την πρόοδο που έχει η εφαρμογή τους. Είναι μακροσκελή.)

Πηγή:www.capital.gr

Φρένο στις δαπάνες για να επιτευχθεί πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα

Του Αλέξανδρου Κλώσσα

Απόλυτη συγκράτηση της κρατικής δαπάνης ώστε να μην ξεφύγει από τους στόχους που θέτει ο προϋπολογισμός και το πρόγραμμα δημοσιονομικής σταθερότητας προβλέπει το μνημόνιο, αφήνοντας ωστόσο περιθώρια αύξησης των δαπανών εφόσον υπάρξει υπεραπόδοση εσόδων, ενώ προαναγγέλει αναθεώρηση των στόχων του Μεσοπρόθεσμου Προγράμματος Στρατηγικής που ψηφίστηκε στη Βουλή, ώστε να ευθυγραμμιστεί με τους στόχους του μνημονίου.

Πριν 20 έτη

του Αθαν. Χ. Παπανδρόπουλου

Το καλοκαίρι του 1993 δεν θα το ξεχάσω εύκολα. Ήταν ένα από τα πιο κρίσιμα για το μέλλον της χώρας και, τελικά, από αυτά που δρομολογήθηκαν τότε, το κόστος τους καταβάλλεται σήμερα –εντόκως. Και είναι πολλά τα γεγονότα που αποδεικνύουν ότι, αν η τότε κυβέρνηση του Κων. Μητσοτάκη δεν είχε πέσει άδοξα, η σημερινή Ελλάδα θα ήταν διαφορετική.

Με υπουργό Εθνικής Οικονομίας τότε τον Στέφανο Μάνο –τον οποίον όχι λίγοι κοινοτικοί θεωρούσαν τον καλύτερο που είχε ποτέ εκπροσωπήσει την Ελλάδα στο EcoFin– η ελληνική οικονομία βρισκόταν σε καλό δρόμο και η κατάσταση θα γινόταν ακόμα καλύτερη αν η Νέα Δημοκρατία κέρδιζε εκ νέου τις κανονικές εκλογές που θα γίνονταν τον Απρίλιο 1994 –δηλαδή ένα εξάμηνο μετά την ανατροπή της.

New Europe’s Old Ghosts

JAN 9, 2015 6

Mazower Marc

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-nationalism-russia-germany-conflict-by-mark-mazower-2015-01

NEW YORK – The past stalked Europe in 2014. When the year started, the centennial of the Great War’s outbreak attracted much commemorative energy. But, as it progressed, disturbing parallels appeared – not to 1914, but to some of the nastier features of the interwar years.

From Scotland and Catalonia to the borders of Ukraine, the politics of nationality flared, while Europe’s economy stagnated – hostage to a German inflation phobia that dates back to 1923. And, as the year unfolded, a new geopolitical tug of war between the continent’s two early-twentieth-century giants, Germany and Russia, became apparent, while Europe’s amnesiac political elite seemed to be fumbling on one front after another.

Euro Slumps to 9-Year Low Against Dollar on ECB Easing Expectations

Currency Hits Lowest Point Against Dollar Since Late 2005

By JAMES RAMAGE

Updated Jan. 13, 2015 4:42 p.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal

The euro slipped to a new nine-year low against the dollar on Tuesday as investors bet the European Central Bank would announce broad measures to lift the economy and consumer prices at its meeting next week.

Moody's: Greece exit from euro zone unlikely, less risk of contagion than in 2012

ATHENS Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:54am EST

Jan 14 (Reuters) - The likelihood of Greece leaving the European single currency remains relatively unlikely than during the peak of the euro zone crisis and the risk of contagion to other countries is lower than in 2012, rating agency Moody's said on Wednesday.

Gold Rises to Highest Since October as U.S. Rate Outlook Weighed

By Laura Clarke and Glenys Sim  Jan 13, 2015 12:23 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

Gold extended gains to the highest in almost 12 weeks as investors assessed the timing of higher borrowing costs and the strength of the U.S. economy amid slumping oil prices. Silver climbed to a four-week high.

Bullion rose for a third day after U.S. data last week showed falling incomes even as hiring accelerated. Fed Bank of San Francisco President John Williams has said raising rates in June would be a close call amid “strong momentum” in the labor market and weaker wage gains.

Greek leftist: German taxpayers have nothing to fear from Syriza gov't

Tue Jan 13, 2015 4:55am EST

* Germany says Greece must stick to bailout conditions

* Tsipras' party ahead in polls, wants end to austerity

* Tsipras says Greece needs growth to repay debts

BERLIN, Jan 13 (Reuters) - German taxpayers should not be afraid of a Greek government led by the left-wing Syriza party, its leader Alexis Tsipras wrote in an article published on Tuesday in a German business daily.

Speculation is growing that if anti-bailout Syriza wins Greece's Jan. 25 parliamentary election, it will try to renegotiate European Union loans and conditions, possibly provoking a crisis between Athens and its euro zone partners.

Here's What A 'Grexit' Would Cost Europe

RICHARD LEIN, AFP

JAN. 11, 2015, 8:40 AM

Business insider

Paris (AFP) - A Greek exit from the eurozone would certainly come at a cost to Europe, but just how expensive would it be?

The amount Athens owes its partners is equivalent to just a tiny fraction of the eurozone's economy, but some analysts are still worried that a 'Grexit' could ultimately cost Europe its single currency.

No Exit for Greece

By JOSEF JOFFEJAN. 12, 2015

The New York Times

HAMBURG, Germany — Another Chapter 11 for Greece, the third in five years — and no exit in sight. The Greeks won’t do the eurozone the favor of absconding from the common currency. Never mind that they should never have been accepted in the first place, when they cooked the books to look prim and proper.

Not even Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the radical leftist Syriza party, wants out. Apparently on track to win the snap elections on Jan. 25, he has vowed: “We will stick with the euro, no doubt.”

ECB Warning to Greece Deploys Tactic Honed in Crisis

By Jeff Black and Nikos Chrysoloras  Jan 13, 2015 9:56 AM GMT+0200

The European Central Bank is threatening to choke off funding to Greece’s lenders in the hope it won’t actually need to.

Parliamentary elections on Jan. 25 hinge on whether Greek voters are willing to accept a strings-attached successor to the country’s international bailout package. Under President Mario Draghi, the Frankfurt-based ECB has made its position clear: No program means no guarantee of cash from us.

Why Grexit would not help Greece - debunking the myth of exports

by Guntram B. Wolff on 6th January 2015

http://www.bruegel.org

The genie is out of the bottle: Europe is again discussing the possibility of Greece leaving the euro. With it, the debate has re-emerged whether this would be helpful or not for Greece and whether there would be contagion to other euro area countries. A big question is, of course, how the Greek financial system would survive an exit with a debt restructuring; how long it will take until Greece would regain access to financial markets; and how big the benefit of a debt restructuring is given the relatively low interest load. The absence of external help would be a further factor weighing on Greece. All these factors speak clearly against an exit from the point of view of Greece but they are not discussed in this blog.

Greek Elections, Democracy, Political Trilemma, and all that

08/01/2015 by Dani Rodrik

From the site http://www.socialeurope.eu/

Two-and-a-half years ago I wrote a short piece titled “The End of the World as We Know It” which began like this:

Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions.