All eyes on Fed, Greece after ECB fires bazooka

BY INGRID MELANDER

PARIS Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:39am EST

(Reuters) - After the surprises from central banks which rocked markets at the start of the year, the U.S. Federal Reserve will be watched as closely as ever this week to see that it doesn't stray from its own policy path.

The atmosphere will already be tense as the fallout from Sunday's snap election in Greece settles and concern has grown in some quarters that central banks, which played such a big part in guiding economies through the financial crisis, are becoming less predictable.

Greece Is About To Make A Leap Into The Unknown

AFP

GUY JACKSON, AFP

JAN. 25, 2015, 12:31 AM

Business Insider

Athens (AFP) - Greece votes Sunday in a snap general election that could bring the radical left Syriza party to power and pose the most severe challenge yet to austerity policies in struggling eurozone countries.

Electing Syriza and their 40-year-old leader Alexis Tsipras would represent a leap into the unknown, but many Greeks appear prepared to take a chance after years of hardship.

Greece: Austerity, Relief or Exit?

9:26 AM EST JAN 23, 2015

By Marcus Walker

The Wall Street Journal

Greece’s elections on Sunday take place against the background of rising tensions between the small nation and its main creditors, eurozone governments and the IMF, about the country’s strict bailout regimen. Polls point to a win for leftwing opposition party Syriza over the ruling conservatives of New Democracy. Would a Syriza-led government start a game of chicken with Germany and other creditors that could lead to havoc and a Greek exit from the euro? Or can a compromise be found? Here’s our crystal ball.

Q: Who will lead the next Greek government?

Very likely Syriza (whose leader, Alexis Tsipras is pictured above), the leftwing opposition party, unless the conservative incumbent, Premier Antonis Samaras, pulls off the biggest upset victory since Harry Truman in 1948. Syriza might win an absolute majority in Parliament, but polls suggest it will fall just short, requiring support from another party. A pact with centrist To Potami (The River) or center-left Pasok could make the government more pragmatic in talks with Greece’s international creditors. A pact with the nationalist Independent Greeks could make it more hardline.

Syriza’s Rise Fueled by Professors-Turned-Politicians

Party in Lead in Greek Election Polls Hones Economic Platform With Cadre of Left-Wing Academics-Turned-Politician

The Wall Street Journal

By CHARLES FORELLE

Jan. 23, 2015 3:32 p.m. ET

159 COMMENTS

NAOUSA, Greece—Wearing suit pants and a jacket, Costas Lapavitsas stood Wednesday afternoon on the floor of a steel-fabricating shop here and addressed a few dozen workers and small-business owners who smoked while sitting in plastic chairs. “I am not a career politician,” he began.

Indeed. Mr. Lapavitsas ’s political career is only a few weeks old. In Greece’s elections Sunday, he is a parliamentary candidate for the leftist opposition party Syriza, which leads Prime Minister Antonis Samaras ’s conservative party in the polls and could roil politics throughout Europe if it wins.

Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem issues warning to Greece before election: magazine

BERLIN Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:15am EST

 "And that also means: any country that need support to finance its economy and public expenditures must stick to those conditions."

Tsipras urged Greeks to give Syriza an outright victory in Sunday's vote so the country could turn its back on four years of austerity under the terms of the EU/IMF bailout.

How Greece and Germany Brought Europe’s Long-Simmering Crisis Back to a Boil

A Game of Chicken Between the Greek Government, Creditors Helped Put Radical-Left Opposition Party Ahead in Polls

The Wall Street Journal

“…the austerity Europe has imposed on Greece as the price of rescue loans…”

“snap elections Sunday, … could return the country to the brink of exit from the euro…”

“Mr. Samaras, a suave conservative who swings between statesmanship and populism…”

“…Wolfgang Schäuble …wanted to boot Greece out of the euro…”

“…Mr. Samaras faced a younger, left-wing version of himself: Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras , who blamed the crisis on austerity, not austerity on the crisis…”

“…Eurozone finance officials now think Greece will need a longer bailout. Sunday’s election winner must bridge an even bigger gap….”

By MARCUS WALKER and  MARIANNA KAKAOUNAKI

Updated Jan. 21, 2015 9:17 p.m. ET

What Good Are Economists?

Robert J. Shiller

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/are-economists-good-by-robert-j--shiller-2015-01

NEW HAVEN – Since the global financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009, criticism of the economics profession has intensified. The failure of all but a few professional economists to forecast the episode – the aftereffects of which still linger – has led many to question whether the economics profession contributes anything significant to society. If they were unable to foresee something so important to people’s wellbeing, what good are they?

A “Merkel Plan” for Europe

JAN 19, 2015

By Bill Emmott

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-modern-marshall-plan-by-bill-emmott-2015-01

LONDON – Ever since Europe’s economic crisis erupted more than four years ago, politicians and pundits have clamored for a grand solution, often invoking the example of America’s postwar Marshall Plan, which, starting in 1948, helped to rebuild Western Europe’s shattered, debt-ridden economies. But the political moment has never been ripe. That could be about to change.

Europe’s situation today bears some similarities to the 1940s. Burdened by the public debts resulting from past mistakes, eurozone governments know what they need to do but not how to do it. They mistrust each other too much to collaborate. Meanwhile, demand in most of the European Union is weak, ruling out the economic growth needed to repay debts and offer hope to the 25 million unemployed.

Samaras Adrift as Syriza Lead Widens Before Greek Vote

By Nikos Chrysoloras and Paul Tugwell  Jan 20, 2015 1:48 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

Syriza widened its lead over Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy in three opinion surveys just days before the general election, prompting one pollster to say the race was all but decided.

Syriza, an acronym for Coalition of the Radical Left, led by between 4 percentage points and 6.5 percentage points in separate surveys conducted by GPO, Alco and the University of Macedonia based in Thessaloniki. That’s up from about 3 points last week.

An impasse in Paris, a gamble in Athens: how Greece returned to crisis

Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:00am EST

* Political uncertainty weighed on bailout review talks

* PM Samaras had little room for more austerity

* Failed talks, uncertainty prompted PM to call forward vote

By Renee Maltezou, Lefteris Papadimas and Deepa Babington

ATHENS, Jan 21 (Reuters) - After four years of economic sacrifices, Greece bet it could agree an early end to its international bailout. Instead a stand off with creditors in a Paris townhouse led to new political uncertainty and another euro zone storm.

Greece’s Syriza Leads in Polls as General Election Looms

Leftist Opposition Party Widens Lead, According to Survey in Newspaper To Vima

Wall Street Journal

By STELIOS BOURAS

Jan. 18, 2015 9:48 a.m. ET

ATHENS—Greece’s leftist Syriza party is holding its lead in opinion polls a week ahead of a key general election, amid signs that political uncertainty is taking a growing toll on the economy.

Lessons from the 2012 Greek debt restructuring

Miranda Xafa 25 June 2014

The 2012 Greek debt restructuring was the largest one in the history of sovereign defaults. This column discusses the lessons from this historically unprecedented episode. Delaying the restructuring implied that externally held debt remained higher than it would have been otherwise. Supportive crisis management is necessary for smooth restructuring to take place in a currency union.

http://www.voxeu.org/article/greek-debt-restructuring-lessons-learned

The Real Social Challenge Is Kickstarting Growth

19/01/2015 by George Pagoulatos

http://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/01/social-challenge/

It is impossible to meaningfully address Europe’s social challenges for the present, medium and longer term without addressing the central challenge of economic growth. We are now in a situation where adverse longer-term trends are nested in a highly unfavourable current and medium-term economic environment.

Greece's Alpha Bank, Eurobank applied for ELA funding-source

ATHENS Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:34am EST

Jan 16 (Reuters) - Greece's Alpha Bank and Eurobank were the two lenders that applied for emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) from the Greek central bank, a banking source told Reuters on Friday.

A Eurobank investor relations executive confirmed it had applied for the emergency funding. Alpha Bank declined to comment.

Increased deposit outflows since Greece called snap elections slated for Jan. 25, coupled with government T-bill issues have squeezed banks' liquidity levels. (Reporting by George Georgiopoulos, editing by Deepa Babington)

Politics Risk Tripping Up Greece on Debt Relief

Greece’s debt looks fairly manageable. It’s politics that makes it problematic.

By STEPHEN FIDLER

Updated Jan. 15, 2015 5:26 p.m. ET

2 COMMENTS

Does Greece need debt relief? Alexis Tsipras, leader of the left-wing Syriza Party and the man who could be Greece’s next prime minister, says it does.

“There is no single sensible person in the whole of Europe who seriously thinks that Greece’s debt is sustainable and must be repaid in full,” he said in a speech on Tuesday.

Αδημοσίευτο μνημόνιο: Τι προβλέπει για δαπάνες, δημόσιο, ιδιωτικοποιήσεις, χωροταξικό, μεταφορές

 (Σ.Σ..Πρόκειται για κείμενα που περιγράφουν τα μέτρα που προβλέπονται από την σύμβαση του Ελληνικού κράτους και των δανειστών τους και την πρόοδο που έχει η εφαρμογή τους. Είναι μακροσκελή.)

Πηγή:www.capital.gr

Φρένο στις δαπάνες για να επιτευχθεί πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα

Του Αλέξανδρου Κλώσσα

Απόλυτη συγκράτηση της κρατικής δαπάνης ώστε να μην ξεφύγει από τους στόχους που θέτει ο προϋπολογισμός και το πρόγραμμα δημοσιονομικής σταθερότητας προβλέπει το μνημόνιο, αφήνοντας ωστόσο περιθώρια αύξησης των δαπανών εφόσον υπάρξει υπεραπόδοση εσόδων, ενώ προαναγγέλει αναθεώρηση των στόχων του Μεσοπρόθεσμου Προγράμματος Στρατηγικής που ψηφίστηκε στη Βουλή, ώστε να ευθυγραμμιστεί με τους στόχους του μνημονίου.

Πριν 20 έτη

του Αθαν. Χ. Παπανδρόπουλου

Το καλοκαίρι του 1993 δεν θα το ξεχάσω εύκολα. Ήταν ένα από τα πιο κρίσιμα για το μέλλον της χώρας και, τελικά, από αυτά που δρομολογήθηκαν τότε, το κόστος τους καταβάλλεται σήμερα –εντόκως. Και είναι πολλά τα γεγονότα που αποδεικνύουν ότι, αν η τότε κυβέρνηση του Κων. Μητσοτάκη δεν είχε πέσει άδοξα, η σημερινή Ελλάδα θα ήταν διαφορετική.

Με υπουργό Εθνικής Οικονομίας τότε τον Στέφανο Μάνο –τον οποίον όχι λίγοι κοινοτικοί θεωρούσαν τον καλύτερο που είχε ποτέ εκπροσωπήσει την Ελλάδα στο EcoFin– η ελληνική οικονομία βρισκόταν σε καλό δρόμο και η κατάσταση θα γινόταν ακόμα καλύτερη αν η Νέα Δημοκρατία κέρδιζε εκ νέου τις κανονικές εκλογές που θα γίνονταν τον Απρίλιο 1994 –δηλαδή ένα εξάμηνο μετά την ανατροπή της.

New Europe’s Old Ghosts

JAN 9, 2015 6

Mazower Marc

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-nationalism-russia-germany-conflict-by-mark-mazower-2015-01

NEW YORK – The past stalked Europe in 2014. When the year started, the centennial of the Great War’s outbreak attracted much commemorative energy. But, as it progressed, disturbing parallels appeared – not to 1914, but to some of the nastier features of the interwar years.

From Scotland and Catalonia to the borders of Ukraine, the politics of nationality flared, while Europe’s economy stagnated – hostage to a German inflation phobia that dates back to 1923. And, as the year unfolded, a new geopolitical tug of war between the continent’s two early-twentieth-century giants, Germany and Russia, became apparent, while Europe’s amnesiac political elite seemed to be fumbling on one front after another.

Euro Slumps to 9-Year Low Against Dollar on ECB Easing Expectations

Currency Hits Lowest Point Against Dollar Since Late 2005

By JAMES RAMAGE

Updated Jan. 13, 2015 4:42 p.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal

The euro slipped to a new nine-year low against the dollar on Tuesday as investors bet the European Central Bank would announce broad measures to lift the economy and consumer prices at its meeting next week.

Moody's: Greece exit from euro zone unlikely, less risk of contagion than in 2012

ATHENS Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:54am EST

Jan 14 (Reuters) - The likelihood of Greece leaving the European single currency remains relatively unlikely than during the peak of the euro zone crisis and the risk of contagion to other countries is lower than in 2012, rating agency Moody's said on Wednesday.