Why Greek Exit From The Euro Would Be A Very Bad Idea

2/17/2015 @ 7:50PM

Frances Coppola

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2015/02/17/why-greek-exit-from-the-euro-would-be-a-very-bad-idea/

Ever since the election of the Syriza government, there has been growing talk of Greece leaving the Euro. Markets are jittery: fears of Greek default and exit are forcing up Greek bond yields, and the Greek stock market is on a roller-coaster ride, falling with every piece of news that suggests rising exit risk then bouncing back when exit doesn’t happen and everyone calms down. There is a silent run on Greek banks as depositors fearful of re-denomination losses remove their funds to safe havens.

And it’s easy to see where those funds are going. German claims on the Target2 settlement system are rising fast, leading uber-hawk Professor Hans Werner Sinn to demand capital controls be imposed to end capital flight from Greece. Exactly why he thinks capital controls are a good idea at this stage is not entirely clear: he seems to fear that the rest of the Eurozone will be forced to bail out the Greek central bank, which is providing liquidity through the ELA scheme to enable those funds to be moved without bankrupting Greek banks.

Greece Poised to Request Six-Month Loan Extension

by Jonathan StearnsPatrick Donahue

7:57 PM EET   February 17, 2015

(Bloomberg) -- Greece may request an extension of its loan agreement for six months, according to a person familiar with the matter, a step that could ease a standoff with creditors over the country’s future financing.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government intends to make the request on Wednesday, the person told reporters in Brussels, asking not to be named as the deliberations are private. Talks are continuing between Greece and its international creditors on the conditions that would be attached to the extension of the loan accord, the person said.

Tsipras Needs to Rethink His Timetable

FEB 17, 2015 5:00 AM EST

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-17/el-erian-tsipras-needs-to-slow-his-timetable-for-greece

Less than a month into its tenure, the Greek government is finding that it will be very difficult to fulfill electoral promises to rapidly change the country’s economic management and its relations with its European partners.

The approach taken by Alexis Tsipras, Greece's charismatic new prime minister, and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, an economist with strong communication skills, has been bolstered by broad recognition that their nation is unlikely to regain economic dynamism and financial stability without a revision of its existing mix of austerity, structural reform and debt relief.

Greek Euro Exit Risk Increases as EU Delivers Ultimatum

 by Karl Stagno Navarra and Mark Deen

(Bloomberg) -- Greece edged closer to a euro exit after the currency region’s finance ministers said there will be no more talks on financial support unless the Greek government requests an extension of its existing bailout program.

After three weeks of sparring since Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s election victory, finance chiefs hardened their positions as negotiations in Brussels ended abruptly on Monday night with Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis refusing to bow to European demands.

Greece defies creditors, seeking credit but no bailout

BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND INGRID MELANDER

BRUSSELS Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:19am EST

(Reuters) - Talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers over the country's debt crisis broke down on Monday when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout package as "unacceptable".

A Flawed Plan B for Greece

Little common ground exists for Greece and the eurozone to commit to reach a new long-term deal

The Wall Street Journal

By SIMON NIXON

Feb. 15, 2015 6:51 p.m. ET

It is a mark of the gulf that still separates Greece and the rest of the eurozone that an agreement last week simply to engage in “technical discussions” was hailed as a step forward in the search for a solution to the country’s debt crisis.

Eyes of the world on Greece

BY MIKE PEACOCK

LONDON Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:03am EST

(Reuters) - The coming week will go a long way to dictating whether Greece remains in the euro zone.

A meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday is tasked with producing a deal that will keep Greece solvent and which is acceptable to both sides.

A similar meeting last week, marking Greek finance chief Yanis Varoufakis' debut, got nowhere over seven hours of talks.

Greece, EU see need for 'national reform plan' to fix economy

BY KAROLINA TAGARIS

ATHENS Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:46am GMT

(Reuters) - Greece has agreed with its European partners that there needs to be a "national reform plan" to deal with decades-long issues of the economy, its government spokesman said on Sunday.

But he added in a wide-ranging interview on Greece's Skai TV that the new government will not clash with the public based on orders from outside.

Greece and its euro zone partners are in difficult negotiations over demands by the new government of leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras for an end to austerity and a renegotiation of Greece's debt.

Greece will do 'whatever it can' to reach deal with EU: spokesman

ATHENS Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:15am EST

(Reuters) - Greece will make every effort to reach an agreement with its euro zone partners at Monday's meeting of euro zone finance ministers on how to transition to a new support program, its government spokesman said on Friday.

"We will do whatever we can so that a deal is found on Monday," Gabriel Sakellaridis told Skai TV. "If we don't have an agreement on Monday, we believe that there is always time so that there won't be a problem."

'Grexit' would be no easy ride for austerity-weary Greeks

BY JEREMY GAUNT

ATHENS Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:53am EST

(Reuters) - "Grexit" would be sudden, sharp and probably conducted in the dark of night; if Greece were to quit the euro, it would also mark the beginning of a long, hard road - for some harder still than the one already traveled.

The new leftist government wants to keep the country in the currency union, as do its euro zone counterparts. But if they fail to agree a deal to replace or extend a bailout program that expires on Feb. 28, Greece faces the risk of a euro exit - "Grexit" in market shorthand - forced by bankruptcy and default.

Lessons From Argentina’s Default

The New York Times

From Alan Cibils is the chair of the political economy department at the Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento in Buenos Aires.

As an economist who lived through the Argentine crisis nearly a decade ago, I am distressed by the trouble in the euro zone because it has many of the same ingredients that led to the Argentine debacle.

Greece, EU Strike Friendlier Tone After Hopes of Quick Deal Are Dashed

Last-Minute Change of Mind Dashed Hopes of Quick Resolution to Standoff With Creditors

The Wall Street Journal

By VIKTORIA DENDRINOU And  GABRIELE STEINHAUSER

Updated Feb. 12, 2015 7:34 p.m. ET

75 COMMENTS

BRUSSELS—Leaders from Greece and the rest of the eurozone struck a conciliatory tone Thursday, a day after the country’s new government dashed hopes of a quick resolution to the standoff between Athens and its creditors.

Greece and Germany Are Working Toward a Compromise

by Rebecca ChristieEleni and ChrepaBirgit Jennen

(Bloomberg) -- Greece and Germany are pursuing a deal on the conditions required to continue the Greek bailout as each side signals a willingness to compromise, according to government officials taking part in the talks.

Hitting the ground running—backwards

Greece and the euro

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21643139-unless-syriza-changes-course-greece-inexorably-heading-out-euro-hitting-ground

The Economist

Unless Syriza changes course, Greece is inexorably heading out of the euro

WHEN the far-left Syriza party won the Greek election last month, the hope was that the new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, would moderate his demands so as to compromise with his country’s creditors. After all, he (like the vast majority of Greeks) wants to stay in the single currency. But even as he prepared to meet fellow European Union leaders for the first time this week, he was making a Greek exit from the euro ever more likely.

Argentina’s Lessons for Greece

Raquel Fernández

(Raquel Fernández is Professor of Economics at New York University. )

Jonathan Portes

(Jonathan Portes is Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.)

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-lessons-from-argentina-by-raquel-fern-ndez-and-jonathan-portes-2015-02#1AQmWPCTlxsfb6aH.99

NEW YORK – Thirteen years ago, Argentina was in dire straits. Its peso was pegged to the dollar at a level that far exceeded its value. Its external debt was unsustainable. And political pressure from the United States prevented its weak government from renegotiating a bailout program that even the International Monetary Fund knew was unrealistic.

The Greek Austerity Myth

FEB 10, 2015 23

Daniel Gros

BRUSSELS – Since the anti-austerity Syriza party's victory in Greece's recent general election, the “Greek problem" is again preoccupying markets and policymakers throughout Europe. Some fear a return to the uncertainty of 2012, when many thought that a Greek default and exit from the eurozone were imminent. Then as now, many worry that a Greek debt crisis could destabilize – and perhaps even bring down – Europe's monetary union. But this time really is different.

 One critical difference lies in economic fundamentals. Over the last two years, the eurozone's other peripheral countries have proven their capacity for adjustment, by reducing their fiscal deficits, expanding exports, and moving to current-account surpluses, thereby negating the need for financing. Indeed, Greece is the only one that has consistently dragged its feet on reforms and sustained abysmal export performance.

Syriza Isn’t Giving the Greeks the Whole Story

Elevated talk may bolster the Tsipras government’s domestic support, but it does nothing to inform voters about Europe’s political reality.

The Wall Street Journal

By YANNIS PALAIOLOGOS

Feb. 10, 2015 2:28 p.m. ET

Athens

The moment of truth has arrived. The six days starting with Wednesday’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels will determine the ability of Greece’s new government to come to terms with its European partners and avoid a catastrophic Greek exit from the currency bloc.

Greece to Propose a Debt Compromise Plan to Creditors

By LIZ ALDERMAN and NIKI KITSANTONISFEB. 9, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Hoping to defuse a standoff that has set Europe and financial markets on edge, Greek officials intend to propose a detailed compromise plan at an emergency meeting with creditors on Wednesday in Brussels, a finance ministry official here said on Monday.

UK planning for possible Greece exit from the eurozone

Robert Peston

Economics editor

BBC

The prime minister this morning chaired a meeting of senior officials to discuss the impact on the UK of possible Greek exit from the eurozone - and to take steps to ensure British banks and companies would not be excessively damaged.

Η λιτότητα και ο θάνατος

ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ 08.02.2015 : 18:11

Του Πάσχου Μανδραβέλη

Εφημερίδα Καθημερινή

Η αλήθεια είναι πως σχεδόν όλοι -πλην κάποιων ψυχασθενών- είμαστε κατά του θανάτου. Ευτυχώς, η πρόταση περί κατάργησης του αναπόφευκτου δεν υπήρξε ποτέ σε προεκλογικό πρόγραμμα, έτσι ώστε να βρεθεί κάποιος κυβερνήτης που θα έλεγε «σκέφτομαι να πρωτοτυπήσω και να εφαρμόσω όσα προεκλογικά εξήγγειλα». Αναφέρουμε τη λέξη «κυβερνήτης» διότι κάποιος που θα επιχειρηματολογούσε πειστικά ότι «θα καταργήσει τον θάνατο» θα είχε ισχυρότατη λαϊκή εντολή. Πάνω από 90% θα τον ψήφιζαν, αλλά το ποσοστό αυτό μάλλον δεν θα ήταν και ιδιαίτερα πειστικό επιχείρημα απέναντι στον Χάρο.