Is GREXIT a threat to Greece’s security?

By Nicholas Sambanis and Ioannis Galariotis May 3 at 10:16 AM

The Washington Post

Greeks wave their national flag. (Petros Giannakouris/AP)

As the threat of GREXIT looms, it is fair to ask what, if any, consequences such an event would have for Greece’s security.  In recent statements published in the news daily Kathimerini, European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos said Greece’s remaining in the euro zone constitutes a security guarantee. That message, which was also conveyed by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in recent statements, was given in the context of a conversation about the security implications of the illegal immigration problem in Greece. Rising numbers of illegal and undocumented migrants with ethno-religious differences from the generally homogenous Greek population is a problem that has been used successfully as a mobilization device by parties nursed by extreme ideological positions. Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) leader Giorgos Karatzaferis skillfully brought the issue to the forefront of political debates in the country in early 2000s, and the neo-fascist party Golden Dawn built its electoral success on extremist anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Five Years After First Bailout, Greece Back on the Brink

Athens and its creditors reach another impasse, with time running out to avoid bankruptcy

The Wall Street Journal

By MARCUS WALKER and  NEKTARIA STAMOULI

May 1, 2015 2:20 p.m. ET

ATHENS—Five years into the biggest bailout of a debtor in history, Greece is closer to the brink than ever, with time running out to avert a bankruptcy that could destabilize not only the eurozone, but the global economy as well.

When Europe and the International Monetary Fund first agreed to bail Greece out on May 2, 2010, the plan was to return Greece to growth and bond markets within three years.

Greece Races to Bridge Gap With Creditors Before Debt Bill

by Nikos ChrysolorasCorina Ruhe

7:33 PM EEST

May 1, 2015

Greece is locked in negotiations with international creditors as the country races against the clock to avert a default as early as this month.

While talks have picked up pace in recent days, the two sides are still trying to bridge differences on stalled reforms. It isn’t yet clear that there will be enough progress to clinch a deal in time for the planned May 11 meeting of euro-area finance ministers, some officials warned.

“They’re working hard now and that’s what we’ve gained,” Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters in the Hague. “But in the end we only look at the results and we’re not that far yet.”

Ratings agencies say no default if Greece misses ECB, IMF payments

Fri May 1, 2015 7:11am EDT Related: GREECE, IMF

LONDON | BY MARC JONES

(Reuters) - Most top credit rating agencies say they would not cut Greece's rating to default if it misses a payment to the International Monetary Fund or European Central Bank, a stance that could keep vital ECB funding flowing into the financial system.

Greece owes nearly 1 billion euros to the IMF in May and almost 7 billion euros to the ECB over July and August and there are concerns that the government, stuck in funding talks with official lenders, will miss the payments.

Greece Is Stuck With the Euro, and Vice Versa

APR 29, 2015 12:01 AM EDT

Bloomberg

By The Editors

“…Changing currencies is no small matter. It requires organization on a military scale, from both elected officials and civil servants. Neither group, to put it kindly, has shown that degree of competence. A lasting recovery would require precisely the kind of fiscal discipline and structural reforms that Tsipras is resisting.

…”

Greece prepares reform bill, lenders seek concessions

Wed Apr 29, 2015 6:39pm EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

ATHENS/BRUSSELS | BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND JAN STRUPCZEWSKI(Reuters) - Euro zone officials sought to wring policy concessions from Greece on Wednesday to unlock urgently needed aid after Athens said it would present a list of reforms for legislation to show it is serious about implementing its promises.

The draft bill was not expected to include major novelties beyond measures already discussed with EU and IMF lenders, but Athens is hoping it will speed up slow-moving talks and permit at least an initial deal to ease its searing cash crunch.

Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem says Greece will not make it without aid

Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:58am EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

AMSTERDAM | BY TOBY STERLING AND THOMAS ESCRITT

(Reuters) - The head of the Eurogroup said on Tuesday that a recent shakeup of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' negotiating team would not by itself resolve the impasse between Greece and its creditors, and Athens would need new loans to stay afloat.

The fast and the slow route to a ‘Grexit’

Published: Apr 28, 2015 5:09 a.m. ET

By SARA SJOLIN

MARKETS REPORTER

With the risk of Greece running out of cash looming larger by the day, investors are grappling with a key question — what are the consequences of a Greek default?

The fallout really depends on which bond, loan or interest the government fails to repay and to whom, leaving open an array of default scenarios, as UBS sketches out in a note published on Monday. The worst-case outcome has widely been described as a “Grexit”, shorthand for Greece leaving the eurozone, and according to the UBS economists there is a fast and slow path to exit.

Greece's finance minister (Sent off)

The Economist

Yanis Varoufakis is pushed out of the Eurogroup negotiations

Apr 28th 2015 | ATHENS | Europe

AT LAST, Greece may be about to step back from a potentially disastrous default. The sudden demotion of Yanis Varoufakis, the argumentative finance minister, suggests a last-minute policy switch by Alexis Tsipras, the Greece's left-wing prime minister—one which could re-invigorate fractious bail-out negotiations with the country's international creditors. A deal would unlock €7.2 billion ($7.9 billion) of much-needed bail-out aid. The government is already struggling to pay pensions and state subsidies for April (it has scratched together enough money for salaries) and has strong-armed local authorities to hand over €2 billion of spare cash to cover payments until mid-May. Without an agreement with its European creditors and the IMF, Greece faces a near-certain default in June.

BlackRock Sells Euro Bonds

Fund manager taking advantage of cheap borrowing costs, thanks to ECB’s quantitative-easing program

 The Wall Street Journal

By JOSIE COX

Updated April 28, 2015 3:00 p.m. ET

BlackRock Inc. has sold euro-denominated bonds for the first time ever, joining a wave of U.S. firms that have already taken advantage of rock-bottom borrowing costs in the region, thanks to the European Central Bank’s massive quantitative-easing program.

The New York-based fund manager, which has close to $5 trillion in assets under management, met with investors in several European cities last week and started marketing the new bonds in early European trade Tuesday.

Greece hopes keep euro near 3-week high vs stalling dollar

Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:07am EDT

LONDON | BY JEMIMA KELLY

(Reuters) - The euro hovered near a three-week peak on Tuesday, boosted by renewed hopes that cash-strapped Greece could secure extra funding and as the dollar remained weak ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that starts later in the day.

The euro rose late on Monday on news that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had reshuffled his team handling talks with European and IMF lenders. The move was widely seen as an effort to reduce embattled Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis's role in the negotiations.

Uncertainty Over Impact of a Default by Greece

By LANDON THOMAS Jr.

APRIL 27, 2015

The New York Times

When it comes to assessing the consequences of a messy Greek default on global markets, two views have vied for supremacy in the minds of investors.

First, there was the chaos theory of imploding European banks and a spreading bond market panic. Then, after aggressive action from the European Central Bank, a calamity in Greece — be it a default or an exit from the euro — came to be seen as manageable. Investors, hungry for yield, in turn piled into European stocks and bonds.

Greece Says It Is Changing Team That Negotiates With Creditors

By NIKI KITSANTONIS
APRIL 27, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — The Greek government on Monday announced a shake-up of its team negotiating with international creditors after the country’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, came under fierce criticism from his eurozone peers last week over a lack of progress in the talks.

The move comes as Greece’s finances are running perilously low, fueling speculation about the country’s defaulting on its debt and possibly being forced to leave the eurozone.

LONDON | BY NIGEL STEPHENSON

Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:40am EDT

(Reuters) - World shares hit a new high on Monday, led by China, though the global rally faded in Europe as investors looked ahead to central bank meetings in the United States and worried over Greece.

The dollar edged up but held close to Friday's 2 1/2-week lows, after weak U.S. data on Friday reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates any time soon.

3 Tough Choices for ECB on Greece

APR 27, 2015 2:00 AM EDT

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

Bloombergview

As another meeting of euro area finance ministers ended in acrimony Friday, the focus this week will turn to the resumption of -- it is to be hoped -- more constructive technical discussions between Greece and its European partners. Yet the most potentially decisive discussions will be taking place in a different venue: Decision makers at the European Central Bank’s will hold their weekly consideration of how much “emergency liquidity” they should extend to Greek banks and on what terms.

Greece debt talks to resume after Tsipras, Merkel call

AFP

APR. 26, 2015, 4:14 PM

Business Insider

Athens (AFP) - Athens will resume talks with its creditors Monday, a Greek government source said, after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke on the phone with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Speaking on Sunday, the two leaders "expressed their willingness to establish stable communication throughout the negotiations, in order to quickly reach an agreement that is good for both sides," the source said.

Greece’s Day of Reckoning Inches Closer as Payments Loomby Nikos Chrysoloras

12:01 AM EEST

April 27, 2015

Bloomberg

Greece is struggling to amass cash to pay its pensioners and employees this week, as the country and its creditors resume efforts to break the deadlock in bailout talks.

Europe’s most-indebted state is counting on deposits of local governments, cities and other funds to meet end-of month payments of over 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) after euro area finance ministers on Friday said they won’t disburse more aid until bailout terms are met. That may further strain liquidity buffers at banks, after households and companies withdrew almost 1.3 billion euros in savings last week, according to a person who’s not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

The Rumble in Riga: How the EU Lost Patience With Varoufakis

by Radoslav TomekAlessandro SpecialeKarl Stagno Navarra

3:11 PM EEST

April 26, 2015

Bloomberg

When Yanis Varoufakis warned his fellow euro-area finance chiefs of the dangers of pushing his government in Athens too far, Peter Kazimir snapped.

Kazimir, Slovakia’s finance minister, launched a volley of criticism at his Greek counterpart, releasing months of pent-up frustrations among the group at the political novice. They’d had enough of what they called the economics professor’s lecturing style and his failure to make good on his pledges.

If Greece falls, no one wants their prints on the murder weapon

Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:08am EDT

BRUSSELS | BY PAUL TAYLOR

(Reuters) - "We're going bust." "No, you're not." "You're strangling us." "No we're not." "You owe us for World War Two." "We gave already."

The game of chicken between Greece and its international creditors is turning into a vicious blame game as Athens lurches closer to bankruptcy with no cash-for-reform agreement in sight.

Europe's political leaders and central bankers and Greek politicians agree on only one thing: if Greece goes down, they don't want their fingerprints on the murder weapon.

Greece’s finance minister

Absent professor

The immovable Yanis Varoufakis

Apr 25th 2015 | ATHENS |

The Economist

ALMOST every recent Greek finance minister has been an Athens university economics professor moonlighting as a politician. Yanis Varoufakis is no exception. But unlike his predecessors, Mr Varoufakis has become a global celebrity, to the annoyance of many in Syriza, the leftist party in power. To his critics, Mr Varoufakis’s lifestyle—riding a powerful motorbike, spending evenings in chic bars and weekends at a smart island villa belonging to his wife—is embarrassingly close to that of the rich Greeks he castigates for avoiding taxes by stashing cash abroad.