Where the Euro Goes From Here

SEPT 14, 2015 12:01 AM EDT

By Clive Crook

Bloomberg

Europe could find its way to a stronger recovery and a safer monetary system -- if only it could start from somewhere else. The legacy of the recent economic crisis makes a tough problem nearly insoluble.

What went wrong before and after the European financial breakdown of 2010 is by now reasonably clear. Another excellent new e-book from VoxEU (the European policy portal run by Richard Baldwin of the Graduate Institute, Geneva) collects articles by economists who've followed the story. There's a strong consensus on the causes of the crisis. Governments could have avoided much of the damage if they had recognized the dangers and acted earlier. Now, the damage is done, and applying the lessons is very much harder.

Greek Election Stalemate Beckons as Campaign Enters Final Week

 Nikos Chrysoloras Paul Tugwell Antonis Galanopoulos

September 13, 2015 — 4:57 PM EEST

Bloomberg

Greece’s campaign for Sept. 20 elections enters its final stretch this week with polls showing the outcome too close to call, threatening fractious coalition negotiations that may delay or derail implementation of the terms of a bailout only sealed in July.

With Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras and his New Democracy opponent Evangelos Meimarakis running neck-and-neck, pollsters say the result of Greece’s third national ballot this year could come down to turnout, undecided voters or a televised debate between the two frontrunners.

“The question of the previous election, in January, was whether Tsipras’s Syriza party will win an outright majority,” Thomas Gerakis, head of Athens-based Marc pollsters, said in an interview on Sept. 10. “The question in this election is which one is going to win, and also the ranking of the other parties.”

Greece will likely remain in intensive care for years without more help

Published: Sept 10, 2015 5:42 p.m. ET

The Market Watch

By GREG ROBB SENIOR ECONOMICS REPORTER

Although the short-term default emergency is over, Greece is likely to remain in intensive care for years and may recover only with further dramatic international assistance, according to papers presented by experts at a Brookings Institution conference Thursday.

Taking the long view, Harvard University economist Carmen Reinhart noted that Greece has been in a cycle of excessive borrowing and default since 1833 and was still repaying that first loan 100 years later.

It will take dramatic action to break the cycle.

Greece, the World's Best Investment. No Joke.

SEPT 11, 2015 5:42 AM EDT

By Matthew A. Winkler

Bloomberg

Remember last February, when former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Greece would leave the euro and that the common currency would collapse? Remember that a month later, investor-philanthropist George Soros said Greece was going down the drain? Or that just this July, the president of the German Institute for Economic Research, Marcel Fratzscher, characterized Greece as a "political and economic catastrophe" that would revert to the drachma in desperation?

What's At Stake In Greece's Election?

Greece’s creditors stand on the sidelines awaiting the people's verdict.

The Huffington PostBy Danae Leivada

Posted: 09/08/2015 11:33 AM EDT | Edited: 09/08/2015 12:23 PM EDT

ATHENS, Greece -- After making headlines for the past six years with an economic and social crisis that shows no sign of abating, Greece is headed toward a snap election. On Sept. 20, Greeks will go to the polls for the fifth vote in little more than three years and it seems all bets are off again.

The Background

Former Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of the left-wing Syriza party handed in his resignation last month, bringing an end to the coalition government between Syriza and the Independent Greeks (ANEL) party.

Βαρύγδουπες «αριστερές» ασυναρτησίες

ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ 06.09.2015 : 18:11

Του Πάσχου Μανδραβέλη

Εφημερίδα Καθημερινή\

Απ’ όλες τις μπαρούφες που εκτοξεύονται στον δημόσιο διάλογο οι πιο επικίνδυνες είναι οι τάχαμου αριστερές. Οχι γιατί είναι ριζοσπαστικές. Κυρίως διότι τυλίγονται σε τόσες πολλές και βαριές λέξεις, σε τόσες πολλές ασυναρτησίες, που κάνουν τις μπαρούφες να μοιάζουν σημαντικές. Ετσι, σε μια ερώτηση δέκα λέξεων της κ. Σίας Κοσιώνη (ΣΚΑΪ 3.9.2015) για το δίλημμα «ευρώ ή δραχμή», η κ. Ζωή Κωνσταντοπούλου, αφού είπε ότι «θα σας απαντήσω πολύ ξεκάθαρα, όπως ξεκάθαρα απαντώ πάντοτε», μίλησε ακατάπαυστα επί 3,5 λεπτά. Εκστόμισε 370 λέξεις, ξεφούρνισε δεκάδες ψέματα και έκανε διαρκώς νοητικές ακροβασίες.

Migrant crisis: Greece acts over Lesbos 'explosion' fears

BBC

The Greek government and the UN refugee agency have brought in extra staff and ships to deal with some 25,000 stranded migrants on the island of Lesbos.

A processing centre has been also set up on an abandoned football ground to help the migrants to get to Athens.

A Greek minister said on Monday Lesbos was "on the verge of an explosion".

Meanwhile, hundreds of migrants broke through police lines on Hungary's border with Serbia and started walking towards the capital, Budapest.

The migrants faced down pepper spray used by police as they broke out of a holding centre in a cornfield and marched down a motorway towards Budapest. They later agreed to be taken by bus to another reception centre.

New poll gives Syriza narrow lead in Greece's snap election

Mon Sep 7, 2015 2:44pm EDT Related: WORLD

ATHENS

Greece's leftist Syriza party has a 0.5 percentage-point lead over the conservative New Democracy party before a snap election on Sept. 20, according to a poll published on Monday.

Former prime minister Alexis Tsipras's Syriza is on course to win 27 percent of the vote and New Democracy should get 26.5 percent, the poll by Pulse for the bankingnews.gr website found.

Greek Opposition Leader Says Would Join Coalition With Tsipras

 Nikos Chrysoloras Eleni Chrepa

September 7, 2015 — 7:00 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Evangelos Meimarakis, leader of the opposition New Democracy party, said he’ll invite his rival Alexis Tsipras to form a coalition to safeguard Greece’s place in the euro area, no matter the outcome of this month’s vote.

“I believe in consensus and cooperation,” Meimarakis, 61, said in a Bloomberg television interview on Sunday. “We have proven throughout these years that when it’s for the good of the country, for safeguarding its place in the euro area, we’re willing to cooperate.”

What Draghi Said on QE, Market Volatility, Greece

 Deborah Hyde

September 4, 2015 — 11:19 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Mario Draghi addressed questions on recent market volatility and scope for further ECB action after the central bank downgraded growth and inflation forecasts and raised the limit of a country’s debt it can buy citing downside risks to the euro-area economy.

Here's the checklist of what Draghi said at yesterday's press conference:

Inflation

HICP rates will remain very low in the near term, may even turn negative toward end of year also due to base effects of oil; impact will be “transitory” due to oil.

Inflation likely to pick up during 2016 and 2017 although more slowly than anticipated thus far.

Downside risks to September projections remain.

The euro area's uninspiring recovery

Sep 2nd 2015, 13:29 BY P.W. | LONDON

Economist

EARLIER this year, a genuine revival in the euro area appeared to be under way. European equity markets were buoyant and consumers had become more confident. The recovery, which had been faltering and feeble since the spring of 2013, looked set to accelerate. That bout of optimism has proved fleeting and there is now increasing doubt about whether the euro area can pull itself out of a rut of low inflation and sluggish growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to act on September 3rd when its governing council meets. But it may well indicate a preparedness to provide more stimulus, if necessary.

Turmoil in China, weak inflation may open door for more stimulus from European Central Bank

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/09/01/wobbly-euro-economy-may-get-bigger-push-from-central-bank

By DAVID McHUGH, AP Business Writer

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — When is a trillion euros not enough? Could be soon, in Europe's shaky economy.

Analysts are already talking about when and how the European Central Bank might extend its 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) stimulus program that has been running for the past six months in an attempt to boost the modest recovery in the 19 countries that use the euro.

Greece Names George Chouliarakis Interim Finance Minister Foreign ministry will be headed by diplomat Petros Molyviatis

By STELIOS BOURAS

Aug. 28, 2015 5:55 a.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal

ATHENS—Greece named economist George Chouliarakis as the country’s interim finance minister Friday, handing him control of the country’s purse strings until next month’s elections.

Mr. Chouliarakis was Greece’s representative in the meetings of eurozone finance ministry officials and has played a leading role in Greece’s negotiations with officials from the International Monetary Fund and European institutions. He is considered to be a constructive interlocutor by European officials.

Greece's Syriza to win election but face setback, poll shows

Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:53am EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

ATHENS | BY GEORGE GEORGIOPOULOS AND ANGELIKI KOUTANTOU

Reuters

Former Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' leftist Syriza will emerge as the biggest party after next month's election but without the sizeable margin it was hoping for, the first major opinion poll since he resigned last week showed.

The survey also found that almost two thirds of voters felt Tsipras should not have sought a fresh mandate and that his favored coalition ally would not make it into parliament.

That suggested his gamble to call early elections to consolidate his power base could backfire, though over quarter of voters remained undecided, making the final outcome far from clear.

Syriza was supported by 23 percent of those polled, with the conservative New Democracy party second on 19.5 percent, according to the survey, carried out by pollsters ProRata and published in Friday's Efimerida Ton Syntakton newspaper.

Greece Names Interim Prime Minister to Lead the Country to Snap Election

Announcement likely to be posted Friday outside Greek parliament calling for Sep 20 election

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI

Updated Aug. 27, 2015 11:21 a.m. ET

2 COMMENTS

ATHENS—Greece Thursday officially entered the pre-election period for the second time this year, as the head of the country’s Supreme Court Vassiliki Thanou Christopoulou has been named caretaker Prime Minister, with the task to lead the country to elections.

Greece’s President Prokopis Pavlopoulos “is obliged to give the mandate for the formation of the government with the widest possible acceptance in order to hold elections to the President of the Supreme Court Mrs. Vassiliki Thanou,” the presidency said in a statement.

Euro as New Haven Moves Opposite to Stocks by Most in Decade

 Anooja Debnath

August 27, 2015 — 10:00 AM EEST Updated on August 27, 2015 — 2:03 PM EEST

Bloomberg

The tumble in equity markets in the past week has boosted the euro, confirming its new-found status as a haven asset.

The 19-nation currency is moving in the opposite direction of the Stoxx Europe 600 Index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by the most in a decade, according to 30-day correlation data compiled by Bloomberg. The euro has appreciated against all of its Group-of-10 peers in the last three months, including traditional refuge currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

As panic selling appeared in global stock markets earlier this week, the single currency rose to its strongest against the dollar since mid-January. The inverse relationship, or negative correlation, has intensified, said Stuart Bennett, London-based head of G-10 currency strategy at Banco Santander SA.

Euro ministers give blessing to Greek bailout, wooing IMF on debt

Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:02am EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

BRUSSELS/ATHENS | BY ALASTAIR MACDONALD AND LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS

Euro zone finance ministers have agreed to lend Greece up to 86 billion euros ($96 billion) after Greek lawmakers accepted their stiff conditions despite a revolt by supporters of leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

Assuming approval by the German and other parliaments, 13 billion euros should be in Athens next Thursday to pay pressing bills and a further 10 billion will be set aside at the European Stability Mechanism, earmarked to bolster Greek banks' capital.

Greece and the euro

A third bail-out gets the green light

Aug 15th 2015, 12:51 BY P.W. | LONDON

The Economist

A MONTH ago Greek membership of the euro was in peril, as Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s powerful finance minister, argued that Greece should leave the monetary union for at least five years in what he euphemistically called a “time out”. Any such exit, which would almost certainly have turned out to be permanent, would have undermined a founding principle of the monetary union—that those joining the euro do so irrevocably. Even after euro-zone leaders meeting at a crucial summit managed to agree upon a framework for a bail-out agreement on July 13th the chances of it actually being concluded and avoiding a “Grexit” seemed slim. Mr Schäuble made clear in the following week that he still thought Greece should be temporarily expelled from the euro while Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, said he did not believe in the agreement he had just made at the summit.

Dismal Debt Outlook for Greece Raises Pressure on European Creditors

Forecast comes amid surprise data showing Greek economy grew instead of shrinking in second quarter

The Wall Street Journal

By MARCUS WALKER And  STELIOS BOURAS

Aug. 13, 2015 2:48 p.m. ET

ATHENS—A bleak debt forecast for Greece is raising pressure on Europe to grant the country softer loan terms, exacerbating tensions among its creditors as they try to seal a new Greek rescue deal within days.

The new forecast, prepared by European Union officials in a document seen by The Wall Street Journal, predicts sharply higher Greek debt than Europe had previously hoped and shows just how far Greece is from escaping its marathon crisis.

Greece's Debt Relief Bill Rises To €100 Billion And The IMF Ain't Helping

AUG 5, 2015 @ 7:27 PM 1,536 VIEWS

Tim Worstall

CONTRIBUTOR

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/08/05/greeces-debt-relief-bill-rises-to-e100-billion-and-the-imf-aint-helping/

After we all thought that the Greek debt crisis was over we’re seeing disturbing signs that it isn’t, not at all, quite over as yet. It’s not just the absence of the fat lady in the horned helmet signing as yet that indicates it either. We have two rather different processes going on, both of them leading to the possibility that the solution just isn’t going to be found and that exit from the euro and default will follow. The first is that the IMF is now doing what it always should have done, which was obey its own charter. This means it should not fund any deal which is not sustainable: something it clearly ignored in funding the last deal. The second is that the Greek economy has deteriorated even more than anyone thought it had meaning that the necessary debt relief bill is even higher. Quite possibly to the point where no one’s willing to bear it.