How the Migrant Crisis Could Accelerate a Grexit

Geopolitical Diary NOVEMBER 24, 2015 | 01:54 GMT

STRATFOR

Stratfor laid out on Nov. 11 the potential dangers of Slovenia closing its borders to migrants, establishing a barrier across the heavily transited Balkan migration corridor. Two days later, a terrorist attack in Paris led to a hardening of attitudes across the Continent. In response, the Slovenian government announced Nov. 19 that it would no longer allow economic migrants — those who are not from war zones such as Syria and Afghanistan — to enter its territory. The announcement caused a chain reaction back along the migration route as Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia, anticipating a backlog forming in their territories, swiftly closed their own borders. This has left many migrants stranded along the route, powerless to move forward and now unable to backtrack.

Turkey downs Russian warplane near Syria border, Putin warns of 'serious consequences'

Wed Nov 25, 2015 3:03am EST 

Related: WORLD, RUSSIA, TURKEY, AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

Reuters

ANKARA/MOSCOW | BY TULAY KARADENIZ AND MARIA KISELYOVA

Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on Tuesday, saying the jet had violated its air space, in one of the most serious publicly acknowledged clashes between a NATO member country and Russia for half a century.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the plane had been attacked when it was 1 km (0.62 mile) inside Syria and warned of "serious consequences" for what he termed a stab in the back administered by "the accomplices of terrorists".

Will this Russia-Turkey business get out of control?

Turkey shot down a Russian warplane. How lucky will we be to live through this?

The Washington Post

By Daniel W. Drezner November 24 at 9:20 AM

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a regular contributor to PostEverything

When former senator and actor Fred Thompson passed away earlier this month, it was impossible to forget the best line he ever delivered on a film.

This line seems particularly trenchant now, as something I worried about last month pretty much just happened:

Putin Says Turkish 'Stab in Back' Caused Russian Warplane Crash

By  Andrey Biryukov

November 24, 2015 — 3:01 PM EET Updated on November 24, 2015 — 3:54 PM EET

Bloomberg

President Vladimir Putin accused Turkey of being an accomplice of terrorism for shooting down a Russian warplane in Syria and warned of “very serious consequences” for their relations.

“We understand that everyone has their own interests but we won’t allow such crimes to take place,” Putin said at talks Tuesday with Jordanian King Abdullah II in Sochi. “We received a stab in the back from accomplices of terrorism.”

Putin Has Misjudged Turkey's Erdogan

105 NOV 24, 2015 8:09 AM EST

By Marc Champion

Bloomberg

The details of how and why a Russian jet was shot down near the Turkish-Syrian border remain unclear, but one thing can already be said: Russian President Vladimir Putin has misjudged his Turkish counterpart and former friend, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

According to Turkey's military, one of its F-16s fired on a jet over Turkish territory, after the plane's pilots ignored 10 warnings to leave. So the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's second-largest military is claiming to have shot down an aircraft in anger that was probably Russian, and is now "consulting" with its NATO allies.

Greece Gets Aid Infusion As EU Counts on Tsipras to Pass Reforms

 Rebecca Christie

 Corina Ruhe

 November 23, 2015 — 8:47 PM EET

Bloomberg

Greece unlocked more of its rescue funds on Monday as the euro area called on Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to maintain his nation’s commitment to meeting its bailout requirements.

In the first aid payment since August, when Greece secured an 86 billion-euro ($91 billion) third bailout, the euro area on Monday approved a 2 billion-euro disbursement from the European Stability Mechanism firewall fund. This allows Greece to turn its attention to recapitalizing its banks and releasing another 1 billion euros in rescue funds before the end of the year.

Greece's Alpha Bank details allocation of share issue

Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:53am EST Related: FINANCIALS

ATHENS

Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/23/greece-alphabank-shares-idUSL8N13I0UK20151123#RWy0sQZD1mWOFAP0.99

Reuters

Nov 23 Greece's Alpha Bank said on Monday new shares issued to fill a capital hole identified in a European Central Bank (ECB) health check would be allocated to investors in a bookbuilding process and to bondholders that took part in a debt-for-equity swap.

A disagreement in Europe

The euro crisis was not a government-debt crisis

Nov 23rd 2015, 9:43 BY R.A. | LONDON

The Economist

THE euro-zone crisis has transitioned from an acute phase to a chronic one. At just this moment the fear that market panic might force one or several economies out of the single currency is low. Yet few analysts believe the euro zone has solved its fundamental problems. In a piece published at Vox EU last week, a cadre of prominent economists made the very sensible point that unless euro-area leaders can agree on the fundamental causes of the crisis, they will struggle to craft long-run fixes. The authors set out their view of the crisis, in hopes that it will prove a foundation for consensus building.

Team Obama’s latest ISIS ‘oops’

By Post Editorial Board November 20, 2015 | 9:25pm

The New York Post

When it comes to US intelligence failures on ISIS, it turns out President Obama’s dismissing the Islamic State as a “JV team” was only a minor blip.

As Bloomberg Businessweek reports, the Obama administration realized just days ago that ISIS is one of the richest organizations in the world — with assets totaling billions.

Greece’s Piraeus Bank Fails to Raise Enough From Private Investors

Capital shortfall determined through ECB stress tests for the Greek economy

The Wall Street Journal

By STELIOS BOURAS and  NEKTARIA STAMOULI

Nov. 22, 2015 8:06 a.m. ET

0 COMMENTS

ATHENS—Greece’s second-largest lender by assets, Piraeus Bank SA, said Saturday that it didn’t manage to raise all the funds needed from private investors following capital shortfalls outlined by the European Central Bank in October.

This means that Greece’s bank rescue fund will need to prop up Piraeus and Greece’s largest lender, National Bank of Greece SA, with at least €6.3 billion ($6.7 billion).

Euro zone agrees Greece can get next loan tranche, cash for bank recap

Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:03pm EST

BRUSSELS

Reuters

Greece has done all the reforms in the a first package of measures agreed with euro zone creditors, which paves the way for Athens to get the next tranche of loans, the head of euro zone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Saturday.

Greece is getting very cheap loans form the euro zone bailout fund ESM under its third bailout agreement in exchange for putting its public finances in order and reforming the economy to make it more efficient and competitive.

Greece passes bailout bill but government majority shrinks

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:19am GMT Related: BUSINESS, WORLD

ATHENS | BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND KAROLINA TAGARIS

Reuters

Greece approved a reform bill on Thursday to secure further bailout funds from its international lenders but Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' parliamentary majority shrank to just two seats after two dissenting lawmakers were expelled.

The bill, outlining regulation on tax arrears and home foreclosures, paves the way for the disbursement of 2 billion euros (916 million pounds) to pay state arrears and a further 10 billion euro to recapitalise Greece's top four banks.

EU takes Greece to court for poor treatment of waste water

Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:11pm GMT Related: WORLD

BRUSSELS

Reuters

The European Commission has taken Greece to court a second time for not treating its waste water properly and is proposing a fine of at least 15 million euros, it said on Thursday.

In 2004, the highest European Union court ruled that Greece was violating EU law for not collecting and treating waste water discharged into the Gulf of Elefsina.

UPDATE 1-Greece's Alpha Bank prices share issue at 0.04 euros a share

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:18am EST Related: FINANCIALS

Reuters

Nov 19 Greece's Alpha Bank on Thursday priced its share offering to fill a capital shortfall revealed in a European Central Bank health check, becoming the second Greek lender to raise funds from private investors without resorting to state aid.

Alpha priced the new shares at 0.04 euros each or 2.0 euros after a one-for-50 reverse share split, translating to a 35 percent discount to Wednesday's closing price.

Greece's fourth-largest lender sought to raise 1.55 billion euros ($1.65 bln) from investors to fill a 2.74 billion euro capital gap under the ECB stress test's adverse scenario.

Greece and Eurozone Creditors in Deal to Unlock $13 Billion

By NIKI KITSANTONISNOV. 17, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Greece and its international creditors said on Tuesday that they had reached agreement on the country’s next round of economic changes, a deal that is meant to unlock as much as 12 billion euros, or about $13 billion, in loan money.

Athens had initially hoped the money would be dispensed after the Greek Parliament passed a package of economic measures last month.

But eurozone finance ministers said then that the steps did not fully meet the conditions required for the next milestone payment from the country’s €86 billion bailout package.

Finnish parliament will debate next year leaving euro zone

Mon Nov 16, 2015 7:25am EST Related: WORLD

HELSINKI | BY JUSSI ROSENDAHL

Reuters

Finland's parliament will debate next year whether to quit the euro, a senior parliamentary official said on Monday, in a move unlikely to end membership of the single currency but which highlights Finns' dissatisfaction with their country's economic performance.

The decision follows a citizens' petition which has raised the necessary 50,000 signatures under Finnish rules to force such a debate, probably the first such initiative in any country of the 19-member euro zone.

Kurds enter Sinjar 'from all directions' - Kurdistan security council

Fri Nov 13, 2015 7:52am GMT Related: WORLD

NEAR SINJAR TOWN

Reuters

Kurdish peshmerga forces entered Sinjar "from all directions" on Friday to begin clearing the northern Iraqi town of Islamic State militants, the Kurdistan regional security council said in a tweet.

U.S. targets 'Jihadi John' in Syria air strike

Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:57am GMT Related: WORLD, UK, SYRIA, MIDDLE EAST

WASHINGTON | BY PHIL STEWART AND MARK HOSENBALL

Reuters

The United States on Thursday carried out an air strike in Syria targeting the Islamic State militant known as "Jihadi John," who participated in gruesome videos showing the killings of American and British hostages, officials said.

One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the strike likely killed Mohammed Emwazi, a British citizen, but cautioned that it was too soon to make any determination.

Euro Eyes Parity Once More

Bloomberg

Vassilis Karamanis

Following a failed attempt at parity earlier this year, the euro may be set to make a more convincing foray at 1.0000 to the U.S. dollar, as a crucial driver for further weakness in the common currency is now on a substantially different path, Bloomberg strategist Vassilis Karamanis writes.

Greek Strike Shows Conflict Within Government Over Austerity

By NIKI KITSANTONISNOV. 12, 2015

The New York Times

ATHENS — Hundreds of thousands of Greeks walked off their jobs on Thursday to protest austerity economics, as officials of the leftist-led government wrangled with the country’s international creditors over the terms of Greece’s third bailout. At least one Athens protest turned violent.

The 24-hour walkout shut down public services, forced the cancellation of flights and disrupted public transportation across the country. Ferries remained moored in ports, hospitals were operating with reduced staff, and museums and archaeological sites were closed.