Saturday, February 27, 2016

Truce halts most Syria fighting; Russia stops flights

Sat Feb 27, 2016 7:48am EST Related: WORLD, UNITED NATIONS, SYRIA

BEIRUT | BY TOM PERRY AND MARIAM KAROUNY

Reuters

Fighting mostly stopped across western and northern Syria on Saturday and Russia halted its air raids, under a cessation of hostilities which the United Nations called the best hope for peace since civil war began five years ago.

Under the U.S.-Russian accord accepted by President Bashar al-Assad's government and many of his enemies, fighting should cease so aid can reach civilians and talks can open to end a war that has killed more than 250,000 people and made 11 million homeless.

Russia, which says it intends to continue strikes against areas held by Islamist fighters that are not covered by the truce, said it would suspend all flights over Syria for the day on Saturday to ensure no wrong targets were hit by mistake.

The Russia-Armenia alliance is threatening Turkey, a critical U.S. ally

The Washington Post

February 26 at 5:35 PM
The Feb. 21 front-page article “For Turkey, high stakes as troubles intensify” highlighted a critical development: The growing military alliance between Russia and Armenia is threatening Turkey, an indispensable U.S. ally and partner in the fight against the Islamic State.

Balkans Crimp Refugee Flow After Greece Warns of Disaster


 Boris Cerni  Jasmina Kuzmanovic
February 26, 2016 — 3:50 PM EET Updated on February 26, 2016 — 4:33 PM EET
Bloomberg

Slovenia and Croatia cut the number of refugees they’ll let across their borders, potentially bottling up migrants arriving in Greece in what that country’s government warned could create a humanitarian disaster.
Slovenia told neighboring Croatia that it can accept only 580 refugees a day, a fraction of the thousands of people fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East who have been crossing the country’s borders daily.

Migration Crisis Complicates Greece’s Efforts to Finish Bailout Negotiations

Struggle on two sides risks fragile government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI and  MARCUS WALKER
Feb. 26, 2016 5:26 a.m. ET
The Wall Street Journal

ATHENS—A new deadlock over Greece’s finances is complicating last year’s brittle bailout deal, just as the country nears a showdown with the rest of Europe over efforts that would keep migrants stuck within its borders.

The struggle on two fronts risks overwhelming the fragile government under Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his ruling left-wing Syriza party, which barely managed to keep Greece in the euro last summer, even before the migration crisis deepened the strains between Greece and the rest of Europe.

The International Monetary Fund says it can’t lend to Greece without radical spending cuts by Athens or costly debt forgiveness by Berlin. Greece’s key European interlocutor, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is under such political pressure at home over barely controlled migration inflows that she’s less able than before to take an unpopular stand over Greece’s debt woes.

Greece Scrambles to House Stranded Migrants as Numbers Grow

Greek officials are looking to convert military sites, ferries into shelters

The Wall Street Journal

By STELIOS BOURAS and  NEKTARIA STAMOULI
Feb. 26, 2016 10:53 a.m. ET

ATHENS—Greece was moving Friday to convert military facilities and ferries into temporary housing for the thousands of migrants who continue to pour into the country even as exit routes to the north are closing.

Greek officials estimated the number of migrants stranded in the country has doubled in the past few days to around 20,000, after Austria and several Balkan countries coordinated a tightening of their borders and started to send back Afghan migrants.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Austria hosts Balkan refugee conference without Greece

Austria has defended holding a refugee summit with West Balkan states without inviting Greece. Athens, however, has filed an official complaint with Austria, calling the meeting "non-friendly" and anti-European.

Deutsche Welle

Tensions are running high between Austria and Greece ahead of a conference in Vienna on Wednesday to discuss strategies to reduce migrant flows. Leaders from nine west Balkan states along the so-called Balkan route will attend the summit, but refugee-clogged Greece was not invited.
"These meetings (with the western Balkan states) take place within a format and with fixed participants," interior ministry spokesman Karl-Heinz Grundboeck told news agency AFP.
Wednesday's conference, entitled "Managing Migration Together" will include foreign and interior ministers from Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia.
The ministers are set to discuss issues like border management and how to combat human smugglers, as well as improving the flow of information concerning their country's policies.
The Vienna conference will also attempt to create unified positions ahead of Thursday's EU interior ministers meeting, an official close to the talks said to news agency DPA.

Questions Linger Over Russia’s Endgame in Syria, Ukraine and Europe

By NEIL MacFARQUHARFEB. 23, 2016

The New York Times

MOSCOW — The partial truce that Russia and the United States have thrashed out in Syria capped something of a foreign policy trifecta for President Vladimir V. Putin, with the Kremlin strong-arming itself into a pivotal role in the Middle East, Ukraine floundering and the European Union developing cracks like a badly glazed pot.

Beyond what could well be a high point for Mr. Putin, however, lingering questions about Russia’s endgame arise in all three directions.

Refugee arrivals in Greece exceed 100,000 in less than two months

Figure was not reached until end of June last year, and rate of arrivals this year expected to climb further as weather improves
The Guardian
23-2-2016

More than 100,000 refugees and migrants have arrived in Europe so far this year, at triple the rate of arrivals over the first half of 2015.

At least 102,500 have arrived on the Greek islands of Samos, Kos and Lesbos, according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). Another 7,500 have reached Italy, and in the first six weeks of the year 411 people are known to have died attempting to make the journey.

In 2015 the threshold of 100,000 arrivals was not reached until the end of June. As spring approaches and the weather improves, the rate of arrivals this year is expected to climb further.

Clashes Erupt in Greece as Macedonia Bars Afghan Asylum Seekers

By LIZ ALDERMANFEB. 23, 2016
The New York Times
PARIS — A decision by the Macedonian authorities to block thousands of Afghan asylum seekers from crossing into the country from Greece set off clashes between migrants and the police on Tuesday, highlighting the challenges facing European nations as they seek to check the flow of people to the Continent.

Greek riot police officers forcibly removed groups of Afghan protesters from train tracks at a migrant camp in Idomeni, Greece, a crossing point to Macedonia and a gateway toward Northern Europe, after Macedonia abruptly announced that Afghans would be classified as economic migrants, disqualifying them from political asylum.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

If Sterling Goes Down on `Brexit,' It's Taking the Euro With It

 Eshe Nelson

 Manisha Jha

 Chiara Albanese

February 23, 2016 — 2:00 AM EET Updated on February 23, 2016 — 12:36 PM EET

Bloomberg

Britain’s referendum on its membership in the European Union isn’t just a threat to the pound. It’s raising currency-market risks across the continent.
While the pound led declines among major currencies on Monday with its biggest slide since 2010, the euro had the second-largest drop, weighed down by signs of slowing growth. The cost of options protecting against losses on Europe’s 19-nation currency also jumped. The U.K.’s potential exit may damage trade and encourage other members to renegotiate their relationship with the EU, signaling scope for further losses in the euro in the run-up to Britain’s June 23 referendum.

Greece's War of Words With Eldorado Escalates on Shorting Charge

 Nikos Chrysoloras

 Paul Tugwell

Bloomberg

February 23, 2016 — 9:19 AM EET

Greek Energy Minister Panos Skourletis says Eldorado Gold Corp. Chief Executive Officer Paul Wright shorted the shares of his own company, comments the miner dismissed as “utter nonsense,” as tensions mount between the Canadian company and the government in Athens.
Eldorado shares fell 19 percent to C$3.53 on Jan. 12 in Toronto, the biggest one-day decline since December 2008, after Wright announced at a press conference in Athens that the company was suspending its investment plans for its Greek mines, blaming the attitude of the government.

Greek police remove people from border with Macedonia

Operation follows Macedonia’s decision to close frontier, leaving thousands of migrants and refugees stranded in Greece

Guardian

Greek police have started removing people from the country’s border with Macedonia after a snap decision to tighten border controls by the Balkan state left thousands stranded.

Authorities said the mostly Afghan migrants and refugees were being put on buses bound for Athens, in the south of the country, after the police operation started early on Tuesday. Journalists were not allowed to approach the area.

Police and empty buses had entered the Idomeni area before dawn. In one area seen from the Macedonian side of the border, about 600 people had been surrounded by Greek police, a witness told Reuters.

Monday, February 22, 2016

China’s missile gambit

The Washington Post's View

By Editorial Board February 21 at 7:04 PM

STEP BY incremental step, China appears to be digging into disputed territories in the South China Sea. That is the inescapable conclusion from the latest report that it has stationed a modern surface-to-air weapons system, the HQ-9, on Woody Island, the largest in the Paracel chain, controlled by China but claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. Though the United States has no territorial claim, the new Chinese installations seriously threaten a central goal of U.S. policy in the region: to sail, fly and operate anywhere that international law allows. The installations also threaten to impose China’s unilateral resolution on claims that the United States has urged be settled through negotiation.

Crowd cheer fire at hotel being converted into refugee shelter in Saxony.


The Guardian
22-2-2016
Suspected arson comes three days after protesters blocked bus carrying asylum seekers in east German state


A fire that destroyed a hotel being converted into a shelter for refugees in Saxony was cheered and celebrated by onlookers, German police have said.

The blaze at the building in Bautzen, eastern Saxony, began in the early hours of Sunday morning. Police are treating the incident as suspected arson. No one was injured.

Locals had cheered as the building caught fire, police said. “Some people reacted to the arson with derogatory comments and undisguised joy.”

China signals no South China Sea backdown as foreign minister goes to U.S.


Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:27am EST
BEIJING | BY BEN BLANCHARD

Reuters

China's South China Sea military deployments are no different from U.S. deployments on Hawaii, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Monday, striking a combative tone ahead of a visit by Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the United States this week.

The United States last week accused China of raising tensions in the South China Sea by its apparent deployment of surface-to-air missiles on a disputed island, a move China has neither confirmed nor denied.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

China's Pivot To Latin America: Beijing's Growing Security Presence In America's Backyard

FEB 20, 2016 @ 08:40 PM 3,030 VIEWS

Paul Coyer , CONTRIBUTOR
I cover foreign policy with a focus on Eurasia.

FORBES

China’s extremely ambitious efforts under Xi Jinping to extend its reach around the globe and to put its economic clout to work aggressively pursuing its strategic goals have had considerable impact on Latin America. As I’ve written previously, the nature of Chinese economic engagement with Latin America, despite having some beneficial aspects, has also had long term negative economic and normative effects in the region and has strengthened anti-American regimes. China’s growing military presence in the region is having a similar effect, and, although it is still relatively limited, is serving to undermine, aided by Washington’s neglect, the United States’ strategic position in its own Hemisphere.

Turkey’s increasingly desperate predicament poses real dangers

The Washington Post
By Liz Sly February 20 at 7:09 PM
ISTANBUL — Turkey is confronting what amounts to a strategic nightmare as bombs explode in its cities, its enemies encroach on its borders and its allies seemingly snub its demands.

As recently as four years ago, Turkey appeared poised to become one of the biggest winners of the Arab Spring, an ascendant power hailed by the West as a model and embraced by a region seeking new patrons and new forms of governance.

All that has evaporated since the failure of the Arab revolts, shifts in the geopolitical landscape and the trajectory of the Syrian war.

What Russia's Failing Economy Means For Putin's Legacy And Military Ambitions

The WorldPost spoke with Sergey Aleksahenko, former deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank.
 02/20/2016 08:01 am ET | Updated 2 hours ago

THe Huffington Post

The World Post


Alexandra Ma
Editorial Fellow, The Huffington Post


Russia is in the middle of its worst economic crisis since 2008.

The country's economic output declined by 3.7 percent in 2015 and is projected to decrease by a further 1 percent in 2016, according to International Monetary Fund estimates published in January. Inflation soared to 15.4 percent in 2015, compared with 7.8 percent in 2014.

The decline is partly the result of the international sanctions imposed following Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014. Large trade and investment partners, including the European Union and the United States, cut off Russia's access to foreign loans and capital markets and froze assets belonging to high-level Russians.

Saturday, February 20, 2016

NATO's support for Turkey is not unconditional

NATO warns Turkey it can't count on support in a conflict with Russia as tensions escalate
European diplomats warned that Ankara cannot invoke Article 5
Germany says that NATO cannot 'pay the price for a war started by Turks'
Turkey has called for international ground operation in Syria
Russia called Security Council meeting to halt Turkey's shelling of Kurds

By GIANLUCA MEZZOFIORE FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 13:06 GMT, 20 February 2016 | UPDATED: 14:45 GMT, 20 February 2016

Daily Mail

These 5 Facts Explain Why Turkey Is in Deep Trouble

Ian Bremmer @ianbremmer  Feb. 19, 2016

TIME

As Turkey ramps up its involvement in the war in Syria, it risks being hit by serious international blowback
It’s been a bad week for Turkey. As the country intensifies its military campaign in Syria, a bomb ripped through Ankara in apparent retaliation on Feb. 17, killing 28 people and injuring 61 others. Sadly, it’s an all too familiar sight. These five facts explain the mounting threats Turkey faces from Syria’s war next door.