Euro, Dollar Flirt With Parity

Trump outlook and Fed’s likely move are strengthening dollar, and ECB may not help stop euro’s fall

The Wall Street Journal

By MIKE BIRD and  IRA IOSEBASHVILI
Updated Nov. 20, 2016 10:00 p.m. ET

A 10-day losing streak for the euro against the U.S. dollar is rekindling an old debate: Will the common currency reach parity with the dollar?

In the last two weeks, the euro has fallen 4% against the dollar, hitting $1.06, a level last seen 12 months ago.

The sharp shift in expectations for U.S. interest rates and economic growth since the American presidential election has refueled the euro’s fall against the greenback. If the Federal Reserve increases rates, expectations are the dollar would rise further by drawing money to the U.S. looking for higher returns.

Here's When the Dollar and the Euro Are Expected to Hit Parity

Forbes

by  Lucinda Shen  @ShenLucinda  NOVEMBER 21, 2016, 10:59 AM EST

Good news for dollar bulls. Bad news for the global economy.
The euro and the U.S. dollar could be trading one-for-one next year as Europe struggles with political uncertainty and the U.S. is expected to go on a fiscal splurge.

In a note late last week, a team of analysts from Goldman Sachs predicted the two currencies will reach parity by the fourth quarter of 2017. The dollar has risen 4.4% against the euro, and 2% against a basket of world currencies since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election Nov. 8. The euro is currently trading at $1.06.

EU’s position in Brexit negotiations does not make sense, Philip Hammond says

The Chancellor accepted that negotiations could create uncertainty for the British economy
The Independent
Jon Stone Political Correspondent

The EU’s hardline stance against the UK in the upcoming Brexit negotiations “doesn’t make a lot of sense”, the Chancellor has said, as he warned that the talks will bring uncertainty to the British economy

A Falling Euro Is Neither A Collapse Nor A Disaster - It's The Solution

NOV 20, 2016 @ 05:35 AM
Forbes

Tim Worstall ,   CONTRIBUTOR
I have opinions about economics, finance and public policy.

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

The Express is getting rather overeager to tell us that a falling euro/dollar exchange rate is a collapse, an imminent disaster. When, of course, a change in exchange rates is the cure for what ails economies. That’s rather the point of having them in the first place rather than just the one world currency. So that if one economic area is doing differently than some other we can let the exchange rate take the strain of adjustment, rather than having to do that internal devaluation. You know, as the euro itself has forced Greece and Finland to do?

EU Sees ‘Smooth Sailing’ If Greece Implements Needed Reforms

 Richard Bravo

 Matthew Miller

November 18, 2016 — 11:15 AM EET Updated on November 18, 2016 — 11:35 AM EET

Greece and the institutions managing its bailout, currently negotiating policy reforms in Athens, could clear the way for discussions next month to ease the terms of the nation’s debt burden, which could presage a successful resolution of its rescue program, according to the head of the euro area’s Economic and Financial Committee of finance deputies.
“You need to do the reforms and that will bring back growth and that will then unlock those measures which in reality we’ve already agreed on,” Thomas Wieser, head of the Euro Working Group, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “I’m very positive by the end of this year we’ll be there then it should be comparatively smooth sailing for the rest of the program.”

May's changing vocabulary signals shift from 'hard Brexit'

Nov 18, 2016 | 7:48am GMT

Reuters

By Elizabeth Piper | LONDON
There is a recognisable repetition in Theresa May's speeches about Britain's decision to leave the European Union: "Brexit means Brexit", making "a success of it" and getting "the best deal" for Britain are some of her stump phrases.

But a closer look at her speeches suggests her position on key aspects of Brexit has evolved since she took office in the aftermath of the June 23 vote to leave.

Together with public comments by ministers in her Conservative government, the changes appear to suggest May has shifted from favouring a "hard Brexit" - a clean break with the EU's single market of 500 million consumers - to supporting continued membership of that market if possible.

Who rules? Euro zone budget tensions surface

Thu Nov 17, 2016 | 11:51am EST

Reuters

By Alastair Macdonald and Jan Strupczewski | BRUSSELS
Berlin's brusque "Nein" on Thursday to a call from Brussels for it to loosen its budget to help the euro zone's struggling south exposed tensions over who should control the currency union and police its rules.

Wolfgang Schaeuble, whose German finance ministry rejected the European Commission's call for it to spend more, went public last month to say the EU executive had become too "political" to act as impartial enforcer of euro zone fiscal rules and should hand the role to a new supervisor.

Another Financial Warning Sign Is Flashing in China

Bloomberg

  Bloomberg News
November 15, 2016 — 11:00 PM EET

Add another credit indicator to the financial warning signs flashing in China.
The adjusted loan-to-deposit ratio, which includes a range of off-balance sheet items and is an indicator of the banking system’s ability to weather stress, climbed to 80 percent as of June 30, according to S&P Global Ratings. For some smaller lenders, the ratio has already topped 100 percent, S&P estimates.

Obama Urges Europe to Address Its Debt Crisis

Leaders should favor growth over austerity in response to rising populism, president says

The Washington Post

By CAROL E. LEE and  NEKTARIA STAMOULI
Updated Nov. 15, 2016 12:14 p.m. ET
123 COMMENTS
ATHENS—President Barack Obama urged Europe to resolve lingering issues from its debt crisis, saying on Tuesday that leaders should favor growth over austerity, as part of their response to the rising populism in Western countries exemplified by the election of Donald Trump.
Mr. Obama made the appeal after meeting with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who said it is time for Greece to receive significant debt relief from Europe.

Obama Keeps Hope Alive for Crisis-Ridden Greece

Bloomberg

 Marcus Bensasson

 Eleni Chrepa

16-11-2017

When a U.S. president last visited Greece, the economy was booming, Athens had been awarded the Olympics and the country was preparing to join the euro.
That was in 1999, and as Barack Obama gives his keynote speech on Wednesday defending democracy in its birthplace, the spotlight will inevitably fall on Greece’s deterioration. Its journey to the brink of bankruptcy, dragging down financial markets worldwide, was among the defining international events of Obama’s eight years in office and few places better show the ensuing forces of populism that ultimately brought in Donald Trump to replace him.

Japan economy: Exports help faster-than-expected growth

BBC

Japan's economy expanded at a faster-than-expected rate between July and September, due to higher exports.
Gross domestic product rose at an annualised rate of 2.2% in the three months to September, the third consecutive quarter of expansion.
Japanese firms have relied on overseas sales to make up for lacklustre domestic demand.
There are concerns a Donald Trump US presidency will hurt Japan if anti-free trade rhetoric became a reality.

Trump shapes White House, hires establishment figure, firebrand

 Mon Nov 14, 2016 | 1:34am EST

Reuters

By Susan Cornwell and Alana Wise | WASHINGTON

President-elect Donald Trump was weighing contenders for other top jobs in his administration after choosing Washington insider Reince Priebus as White House chief of staff and firebrand outsider Stephen Bannon as senior counselor.

Less than a week after his upset win over Democrat Hillary Clinton in last Tuesday's presidential election, Trump's choice on Sunday of Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman and friend of House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan, could help him repair his strained relations with members of the Republican Party establishment.

But Trump also named Bannon, the combative former head of the right-wing website Breitbart News, as his strategist and senior counselor. The statement said Bannon and Priebus would be "working as equal partners to transform the federal government."

Trump shift puts euro markets back on edge as elections loom

Mon Nov 14, 2016 | 1:07am EST

Reuters

By Dhara Ranasinghe | LONDON
Anti-establishment votes in Britain and the United States have roiled markets twice this year and investors are determined not to be caught off guard again.

In 2017, voters in the Netherlands, France and Germany - and possibly in Italy and Britain too - will vote in elections that could be colored by the triumphs of Donald Trump and supporters of Brexit, and the politics that drove those campaigns.

A litmus test for Europe is around the corner in Italy's referendum on constitutional change on Dec. 4. On the same day, Austria holds a re-run of a presidential election in which one of the two candidates is from the far-right.

Barack Obama calls for 'meaningful debt relief' for Greece

US president says it is in world’s interest for Greece to stay in eurozone and praises EU as ‘one of greatest political and economic achievements of modern times’

The Guardian

The US president, Barack Obama, has signalled he will use a critical two-day visit to Athens this week to step up calls for the country to be given “meaningful debt relief”.

Weighing in on the potentially explosive issue of how best to revive the European Union’s most financially strained member state, the outgoing president said debt forgiveness would play a pivotal role in giving people hope. “I am a strong believer that to make reforms sustainable, people need hope,” he told the Greek newspaper Kathimerini before the trip, which will be his final state visit before leaving office. “The International Monetary Fund has said that debt relief is crucial to put Greece’s economy on a sustainable path and set the stage for a return to prosperity.”

Is the White House already changing Donald Trump?

The Washington Post

By Kathleen Parker Opinion writer November 11 at 7:12 PM
Witnesses who tuned in to Donald Trump and Barack Obama’s post-election get-together can’t have missed the change in the president-elect’s demeanor and affect.

Quiet and reserved, he seemed almost chastened. Dare I say, humble and deferential to the man whose citizenship he challenged for years leading up to his candidacy.

The real estate tycoon best known for ego, insults and invective seemed almost sensitive and earnest, as well as appropriately respectful toward the president and the rare circumstances in which he found himself.

It was . . . odd.

Trump sees Japan's Abe as ally in push back against China: adviser

 Fri Nov 11, 2016 | 2:16am EST

Reuters

By Tim Kelly | TOKYO
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's meeting next week with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may mark the start of talks to garner Japan's support for a push back against China's growing influence in Asia, a security adviser to Trump said.

Trump's campaign comments, including a demand Japan pay more for the upkeep of U.S. forces on its soil, have worried Tokyo about a rift in a security alliance with Washington, in the face of a rising China and a volatile North Korea, that has been the bedrock of its defense since World War Two.

A tougher stance against China, however, and a call for Japan to play a bigger security role through a Trump-Abe axis would however fit with Abe's hawkish policies that include allowing the military to operate more freely overseas.

Sterling soars to 6-week high against weakening euro

Thu Nov 10, 2016 | 12:54pm EST

By Jemima Kelly and Patrick Graham | LONDON
Sterling surged 1.5 percent to a six-week high against the euro on Thursday, as investors unwound short positions against the pound amid uncertainty about the fallout from the U.S. election and focused on upcoming European political risks.

The pound's almost 20 percent slide since Britain voted to leave the European Union in June has been the main currency story on developed markets in the months that have followed, and investors have built up record short positions against it on the view that it has further to fall.

But the fog of uncertainty created by Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential vote, after a campaign that included a range of potentially disruptive policy pledges, from building a wall between the United States and Mexico to declaring China a currency manipulator, could provide a different set of impulses over the next few months.

Greece Establishes Independent Media Authority to Handle TV Licenses

Court had previously struck down ruling party’s auction of broadcast permits

The Wall Street Journal

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI
Nov. 10, 2016 2:41 p.m. ET
0 COMMENTS
ATHENS—Greece’s government and opposition late on Thursday broke an impasse toward the regulation of the country’s television sector, after they formed an independent media watchdog that will now take responsibility for organizing the new licensing procedure.

The presidents of the parliament reached a cross-party consent in the appointment of the nine-member body of the National Council for Radio and Television. The number of the licenses that will be auctioned will be decided by the new independent authority.

Greece to ease capital controls soon, needs debt measures: Stournaras

Thu Nov 10, 2016 | 5:50am EST

Reuters

By George Georgiopoulos and Balazs Koranyi | ATHENS
Greece will soon ease capital controls further but full liberalization will depend on progress in easing the country's debt burden, which is also a precondition for entering the ECB's asset buying scheme, central bank chief Yannis Stournaras said.

Propped up by three successive bailouts, Greece hopes to emerge from a long recession next year. But much of its outlook depends on getting a long-sought reduction of its huge debt pile, easing capital restrictions and inclusion in the ECB's 1.74 trillion asset buying scheme.

What explains the speed of recovery from banking crises?

Christian Ambrosius 

Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business and Economics/Institute for Latin American Studies, 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.09.007

Abstract

While a large body of research has explored the causes and effects of banking crises, less is known about what determines recovery from banking crises, despite large variations in post-crisis performances across countries. In order to identify local and global factors that determine the length of recovery (i.e. the time it takes until countries reach their pre-crisis level of per capita GDP), this exploratory paper employs event–history analysis on 138 incidents of banking crises between 1970 and 2012. Regarding domestic factors, the simultaneous occurrence of currency crises, large financial sectors, overvalued currencies and large primary deficits are associated with later recovery, whereas higher debt-to-GDP ratios or inflation levels do not exhibit a negative effect on post-crisis performances. Regarding external factors, a low growth of world trade as well as indicators of uncertainty in financial markets are correlated with later recovery. Global interest rate shocks are particularly harmful for the speed of recovery among middle-income countries with a strong reliance on external capital. The results are similar when using the length of recessions as an alternative indicator of post-crisis performances.

To see full article: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560616301164