Global Economy Week Ahead: China GDP, U.S. Industrial Production, ECB Meeting

Inflation data are due from the U.K. and the U.S., as well as retail sales from China

The Wall Street Journal

By WSJ STAFF
Oct. 16, 2016 3:00 p.m. ET
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The week’s economic calendar provides insight into how the world’s two largest economies are faring. It kicks off with a gauge of U.S. industrial activity, followed by a round of economic data out of China. From Europe comes a report on consumer confidence and a policy decision from the European Central Bank.



MONDAY: The U.S. Federal Reserve releases industrial production figures for September. The drop of 0.4% in August highlighted weak demand for manufactured goods, but economists expect a rebound in September.

TUESDAY: Inflation data for September will shed more light on the state of U.K. economy after the Brexit vote. Analysts see U.K. producers’ input prices rising by 7.4% on the year in September. Consumer price inflation also is expected to accelerate, to 0.9% on the year from 0.6% the previous month. Economists expect that sterling’s recent tumble will boost inflation in coming months, curbing consumer spending.

The U.S. Labor Department reports September’s consumer prices, and economists expect a rise of 0.3%, extending six months without a drop.

WEDNESDAY: China releases third-quarter gross domestic product data (Tuesday night in the U.S.) that is expected to show the economy grew by at least 6.7%, on pace with the first and second quarters. After a wobbly start to the year, China’s economy has stabilized thanks to easy-money policies and a wave of infrastructure projects. This puts China on track to meet its 2016 growth target of 6.5% to 7%, although economists say Beijing’s decision to prop up growth is likely to fuel debt and overcapacity and delay much-needed reforms. Alongside the GDP release come figures on industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales for September. China also is expected to release its September lending data sometime this week.

THURSDAY: European Central Bank officials will gather in Frankfurt for a policy meeting, but no major announcement is expected from ECB President Mario Draghi. Financial markets were rocked earlier this month by a report that the ECB could start to taper its bond-purchase program of €80 billion ($88 billion) a month. Top ECB officials sought to quash such concerns by emphasizing that the stimulus would continue. Mr. Draghi on Thursday could announce changes to the design of the purchase program to avoid possible shortages.

FRIDAY: The European Commission’s measure of consumer confidence in the eurozone is expected to show a second straight month of improving sentiment in October, but the forecast rise to minus 8.0 from minus 8.2 still would leave it below the levels prevailing before the U.K.’s Brexit vote, and consistent with a continuation of a modest economic recovery.