New Europe’s Old Ghosts

JAN 9, 2015 6

Mazower Marc

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-nationalism-russia-germany-conflict-by-mark-mazower-2015-01

NEW YORK – The past stalked Europe in 2014. When the year started, the centennial of the Great War’s outbreak attracted much commemorative energy. But, as it progressed, disturbing parallels appeared – not to 1914, but to some of the nastier features of the interwar years.

From Scotland and Catalonia to the borders of Ukraine, the politics of nationality flared, while Europe’s economy stagnated – hostage to a German inflation phobia that dates back to 1923. And, as the year unfolded, a new geopolitical tug of war between the continent’s two early-twentieth-century giants, Germany and Russia, became apparent, while Europe’s amnesiac political elite seemed to be fumbling on one front after another.

Euro Seen as Shield by Lithuanian Banker Wary of Russia

By Milda Seputyte  Dec 23, 2014 12:08 PM GMT+0200

 Bloomberg

On the eve of Lithuania’s euro adoption, the Baltic country’s top banker says Russia’s actions in Ukraine have pushed him into forbidden territory.

“The euro is an instrument for our deeper integration: the closer we are to the West, the further we are from the east,” Vitas Vasiliauskas said in an interview in Vilnius, the capital. “As a central bank governor, I shouldn’t get myself involved in geopolitical discussions. But these are the facts today.”

Russia Interventions Cross $3 Billion as Rate Bets Surge on Oil

By Vladimir Kuznetsov  Oct 10, 2014 1:44 PM GMT+0300

Bloomberg

Russia’s currency interventions have exceeded $3 billion this month as sanctions and an oil-price slump batter the ruble, boosting bets policy makers will raise interest rates to stem the drop.

The central bank sold $1.5 billion on Oct. 8, according to data on its website today, the most for a single day since a $4.41 billion intervention that preceded the Crimea referendum to join Russia in March. Wagers for interest-rate increases soared to a six-year high as Brent oil’s slide to four-year lows sent the ruble sliding further past 40 per dollar.

Ruble Rout Pounding Russia’s Retailers as Prices Soar

By Matthew Campbell and Ilya Khrennikov  Oct 10, 2014 11:53 AM GMT+0300

Bloomberg

The generally upbeat story -- and current hardship -- of Russia’s middle class since the end of the Cold War can be partly told through Dixy Group.

Official: Russian forces back rebels with tanks in eastern Ukraine

By Victoria Butenko, Laura Smith-Spark and Diana Magnay, CNN

August 28, 2014 -- Updated 1010 GMT (1810 HKT)

Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- Pro-Moscow rebel forces in eastern Ukraine, backed by Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers, battled government forces on two fronts Thursday, a Ukrainian military official said.

The fighting was taking place southeast of Donetsk, and along the nation's southern coast in the town of Novoazovsk, about 12 miles (20 km) from the Russian border, according to Mykhailo Lysenko, the deputy commander of the Ukrainian Donbas battalion.

"This is a full-scale invasion," Lysenko said, referring to the fighting in the south.

In a Cabinet meeting Thursday, Ukraine's Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, called for an immediate U.N. Security Council meeting.

Ukraine Forces Appear to Oust Rebels From Airport in East

By SABRINA TAVERNISE and ANDREW ROTHMAY 26, 2014

The New York Times

DONETSK, Ukraine — The new Ukrainian government struck the separatists in this eastern province with a major military offensive on Monday, battling them over an important provincial airport in ground fighting that lasted for hours. The rebels were left scattered and shaken, just one day after a successful national election they had tried to disrupt.

The airport battle was the first time the Ukrainian military had moved so aggressively against the separatists, who took over government buildings in two eastern provinces in March, after weeks of low-grade military maneuvers meant to stop their spread to other areas.

$400 Billion Gas Deal Shows Russia Looking To China To Replace Western Money

Forbes

Chris Wright, Contributor

The news that China and Russia have signed a $400 billion deal through which Gazprom will supply China National Petroleum Corp with 30 years of natural gas is the clearest illustration yet that Russia will be looking east, not west, for international funding.

Last week, in Will China Save Russia With Investment?, I reported a series of new Russia-China deals were about to be launched by the two countries’ sovereign wealth funds, the Russian Direct Investment Fund and China Investment Corporation. Those deals have since been announced: they involve Vcanland, a developer of tourism infrastructure and senior living communities; the first ever railway bridge over the Amur River on the Russia-China border; and logistics services investment.In dollar terms, they may have involved as much as $1 billion of investment, but while the number itself is insignificant compared to the outflows Russia is experiencing, the trend is very important – and is underlined by the new gas deal.

A Finland model for Ukraine?

By David Ignatius, Published: May 21

The Washington Post

After months of war fever over Ukraine, perhaps the biggest surprise is that citizens there will be voting to choose a new government in elections that observers predict will be free and fair in most areas.

This electoral pathway for Ukraine seemed unlikely a few weeks ago, given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea and his covert campaign to destabilize the Russian-speaking areas of eastern Ukraine. There were dire warnings of a new Cold War, and even of a ground war in Ukraine. The country seemed at risk of being torn apart.

Putin appears, at this writing, to have decided that Russia’s interests are better served by waiting — for the nonaligned government he expects will emerge from Sunday’s elections — than from an invasion or some radical destabilization. The Russian leader may be ready to accept a neutral country, between East and West, where Russia’s historical interests are recognized. During the Cold War, such an outcome was known as “Finlandization.”

Ukraine Crisis Pushing Putin Toward China

The New York Times
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR and DAVID M. HERSZENHORNMAY 19, 2014

MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin said Monday that he was withdrawing Russian troops from the border with Ukraine, the second time he has said that in less than two weeks. He also praised the government in Kiev, which he had previously called an illegal, fascist junta, for its willingness to negotiate structural changes.

But the intended audience for these conciliatory remarks may not have been the United States and Europe, who would distrust them in any event. No, Mr. Putin’s gaze was more likely fixed on China, where he arrives on Tuesday by all accounts determined to show that he, too, wants to pivot to Asia.

While Mr. Putin has been casting an eye eastward practically since he returned to the presidency in 2012, the crisis in relations with the West over Ukraine has made ties to Asia, and particularly relations with its economic engine, China, a key strategic priority. With Europe trying to wean itself off Russian gas, and the possibility of far more serious Western sanctions looming should the crisis deepen, Moscow needs an alternative.

Ukraine Crisis: Heavy Fighting in Pro-Russian Separatist Stronghold

Deaths Reported on Both Sides From Sustained Fighting in Slovyansk

The Wall Street Journal

By LUKAS I. ALPERT and ANDREA THOMAS

Updated May 5, 2014 12:32 p.m. ET

Heavy fighting erupted Monday around a pro-Russian separatist stronghold in eastern Ukraine, with dozens of casualties reported as the standoff between insurgents and the government entered a more dangerous phase.

The fighting was the most sustained since acting President Oleksandr Turchynov first sent troops to eastern Ukraine about three weeks ago, in what he called an antiterrorist operation. Accounts from both sides suggested the military was pushing further into the volatile, heavily defended city of Slovyansk, following days of intermittent clashes focused there.

Mr. Turchynov reiterated Monday that the government was prepared to negotiate with the pro-Russian protesters, who are seeking greater autonomy for eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine suffers deadliest day in months; 34 killed in Odessa

By Simon Denyer and Anna Nemtsova, Published: May 2 E-mail the writer

DONETSK, Ukraine — Ukraine suffered its bloodiest day in nearly three months on Friday, with at least nine people killed when the army launched its first major assault on a rebel stronghold and 34 killed in clashes between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian mobs in the Black Sea port city of Odessa.

Behind the Masks in Ukraine, Many Faces of Rebellion

By C. J. CHIVERS and NOAH SNEIDERMAY 3, 2014

The New York Times

SLOVYANSK, Ukraine — The rebel leader spread a topographic map in front of a closed grocery store here as a Ukrainian military helicopter flew past a nearby hill. Ukrainian troops had just seized positions along a river, about a mile and a half away. The commander thought they might advance.

He issued orders with the authority of a man who had seen many battles. “Go down to the bridge and set up the snipers,” the leader, who gave only a first name, Yuri, said to a former Ukrainian paratrooper, who jogged away.

Opinion: Putin's empire building is not a new Cold War

By Russia Foundation chair David Clark, Special to CNN

April 29, 2014 -- Updated 1105 GMT (1905 HKT)

[Editor's note: David Clark is chair of the Russia Foundation, which is a UK-based think-tank focused on education and dialogue on themes including democracy and economic cooperation. Clark was a special adviser to former foreign secretary Robin Cook between 1997 and 2001. Follow Clark on Twitter. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely his.]

London (CNN) -- The full scale of Russian President Vladimir Putin's new imperial ambition was revealed recently when he referred to the southern and eastern territories of Ukraine as Novorossiya (New Russia).

This was the name given to the region by Catherine the Great after she captured it from the Ottomans in the late 18th century and began colonizing it with Russian, Ukrainian and German settlers.

Along with his assertion that Crimea belongs to Russia because of the blood-price Russian troops paid to conquer it more than two centuries ago, Putin's appropriation of Tsarist terminology establishes a new and troubling benchmark for his irredentist project.

Amid continued defiance, Ukrainian official vows: 'We are not stopping'

By Greg Botelho, Victoria Butenko and Nick Paton Walsh, CNN

May 3, 2014 -- Updated 2314 GMT (0714 HKT)

Slavyansk, Ukraine (CNN) -- On the one side, Ukraine's interior minister said Saturday that military operations in the east would continue and vowed, "We are not stopping."

On the other, there was the pro-Russian separatist leader in Luhansk who announced the formation of an army to march on Kiev.

Disarray in eastern Ukraine as protest is attacked, mayor is shot

By Griff Witte and William Booth, Published: April 28 E-mail the writers

The Washington Post

DONETSK, UKRAINE — With Ukrainian flags flying high and garlands of flowers in their hair, protesters marched through the heart of this city at sundown Monday.

“East and West together,” they chanted.

But in Ukraine, even such anodyne appeals to unity can be a magnet for trouble. The protesters, including old men and grade-school-age children, were walking into a trap.

Russia complains of large Ukrainian troop buildup in east

By Ralph Ellis, Laura Smith-Spark and Gul Tuysuz, CNN

April 27, 2014 -- Updated 0122 GMT (0922 HKT)

Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- A perilous face-off intensified Saturday when Russia state news complained that Ukraine had mobilized 15,000 troops in the suburbs of Slavyansk in eastern Ukraine "in order to wipe out the city and its residents."

Quoting a Russian Defense Ministry source, RIA Novosti said satellite photos showed the force forming around the city that has become a friction point between the Ukraine military and pro-Russian militants.

The Defense Ministry source said the number of Ukraine troops put the pro-Russian militants at a disadvantage because the latter are "armed only with small amount of pistols and shotguns." Many eastern Ukraine residents have Russian roots and sympathize with Moscow.

Ukraine tense as Russia launches military drills, activists die in clashes

By Laura Smith-Spark, Ben Brumfield and Victoria Butenko, CNN

April 25, 2014 -- Updated 0344 GMT (1144 HKT)

CNN

Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- Tensions in Ukraine escalated sharply Thursday, with Russia embarking on new military drills near the border after Ukrainian forces said they killed five pro-Russian militants.

Ukraine's Interior Ministry said Ukrainian forces killed the militants during operations to take down pro-Russian activists' roadblocks around the southeastern city of Slavyansk.

The Russian response was swift.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said "if the Kiev regime has started to use the army against the population inside the country, it, beyond any doubt, is a very serious crime."

Ukraine’s Military Drive in East Enters Neutral Gear, as Pact on Crisis Is Tested

By ANDREW ROTH and NEIL MacFARQUHARAPRIL 23, 2014

The New York Times

SLOVYANSK, Ukraine — The promised Ukrainian military effort to reassert control over the restive eastern part of the country barely registered on Wednesday, but the Geneva agreement to defuse the crisis in the country frayed even further as the United States and Russia exchanged warnings and accusations of meddling in the region.

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry in Kiev said that it had flushed out armed separatists in Sviatogorsk — a town near Slovyansk, a stronghold of pro-Russian militants in the east — and that no one was injured in the operation. But a Ukrainian military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said the presence of the militants in the city had been minimal. “You cannot say that there had been a powerful outburst of separatism there,” he said.

President Obama, disregarding his own red line, dithers on Ukraine

By Editorial Board, Published: April 22

The Washington Post

AFTER AN agreement to “de-escalate tensions and restore security” in Ukraine was announced Thursday, Secretary of State John F. Kerry was very explicit about U.S. expectations. “We fully expect the Russians . . . to demonstrate their seriousness by insisting that the pro-Russian separatists who they’ve been supporting lay down their arms [and] leave the buildings” in eastern Ukraine, he said. “I made clear to Foreign Minister [Sergei] Lavrov today that if we are not able to see progress . . . this weekend, then we will have no choice but to impose further costs on Russia.”

Why Ukraine crisis has China in a bind

April 15th, 2014

02:31 PM ET

By Christopher S. Chivvis and Bonny Lin, Special to CNN

CNN

(Editor's note: Christopher S. Chivvis is a senior political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and expert in European and Eurasian security issues. You can follow him @cchivvis. Bonny Lin is an associate political scientist at RAND and an expert on Asia-Pacific security issues. The views expressed are their own.)

At Sunday night's emergency U.N. Security Council meeting, Western countries denounced Russian efforts to destabilize eastern Ukraine. Depending on your reading of its statement, China either refused to do the same, or refused to back Russia. Either way, the meeting was just the latest example of how the Ukraine crisis has put China in a bind.