Was it worth it?

Jul 4th 2011, 14:10 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

STEVE WALDMAN asks the burning question:

Suppose that Greece had never adopted the Euro and the terms of its external borrowing had remained subject to “market discipline”, as it had been in the 1990s. Would Greece today be better off or worse off, in real terms, looking forward?

Debt crises

Europe and America, increasingly alike

Jul 6th 2011, 13:52 by M.S.

The Economist

GIDEON RACHMAN had a good thumb-sucker in yesterday's Financial Times arguing that the current political-economic crises in America and Europe are basically two sides of the same crisis. "In Washington they are arguing about a debt ceiling; in Brussels they are staring into a debt abyss. But the basic problem is the same. Both the US and the European Union have public finances that are out of control and political systems that are too dysfunctional to fix the problem," Mr Rachman writes. I have some quibbles about the way he frames the economic issues as a generalized problem of "an unsustainable and dangerous boom in credit", viz homeowner credit in America and the overdrawn borrowing of Greece and Italy in Europe.

Is democracy an economic liability?

Jul 6th 2011, 17:01 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

The Economist

OVER at Democracy in America, a colleague embarks on an interesting discussion highlighting the similarities between the institutional roots of economic troubles in Europe and America. Then, alas, he goes astray:

I actually think the issue goes beyond the increasing unwillingness of Chinese authorities to even pretend to listen to Western complaints about human rights. Unless you buy the Nouriel Roubini argument, and I don't, China is going to be the world's largest economy within ten or 15 years, bigger than America or the euro-zone. And, in case anyone has failed to notice, it's a Communist country.

Hedge Funds Move Past Greece With Bets That Sovereign Debt Crisis Expands

By Katherine Burton and Saijel Kishan - Jul 7, 2011 7:00 AM GMT+0300

Hedge funds that trade bonds and loans are increasing bets that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will spread to Portugal, Spain and Italy, even after Greece won a temporary reprieve with 12 billion euros in aid.

“Nothing you’ve seen so far has dealt with solvency, just liquidity,” said Simon Finch, head of credit trading at CQS UK LLP, a London-based hedge fund that oversees $11 billion.

Finch, who has bought and sold corporate bonds and loans for 18 years, has stepped up trading in mobile-phone, utility and toll-road companies in the three countries. He expects their governments will be forced to slash spending to pay off lenders, slowing growth and reducing discretionary consumer outlays.

CQS is among the hedge funds that say investors are underestimating the odds of distress or even default not only by Portugal, whose credit rating was downgraded this week to junk status by Moody’s, but also by the bigger Italy and Spain. The funds are moving beyond a direct wager that sovereign debt values will tumble, targeting potential fallout in the corporate-debt market and the banking industry.

German Move Roils Talks on Greece

Revived Proposal for Bond Swaps Raises Question on Plans for Encouraging Private-Sector Creditors to Help in Bailout

By STEPHEN FIDLER in Brussels, SEBASTIAN MOFFETT in Paris and BRIAN BLACKSTONE in Frankfurt

European governments' plan for private-sector creditors to help Greece's next bailout without triggering a default were thrown into doubt Wednesday, as senior German officials resurrected a once-rejected proposal that would cost investors more.

Spot the pattern

Jul 5th 2011, 18:55 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

HERE'S a chart showing the yields on 10-year Greek debt over the past three months. See the pattern?

The abuses of austerity

A new plan to cut Greece’s debt looks doomed to fail

SOME years back a Greek finance minister, fed up with his country’s waste and extravagance, claimed that he could save money by shutting down the national railway and driving its passengers around in taxis. He was accused of hyperbole but seems, rather, to have been guilty of understatement. In 2009 the Greek railway collected just €174m ($250m) in fares and other revenues. Meanwhile, it spent €246m on wages and lost a total of €937m.

Portugal Rating Cut on Possible Greek Follow

Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s credit rating to below investment grade on concern the southern European country will need to follow Greece in seeking a second international bailout.

The long-term government bond ratings were lowered to Ba2, or junk, from Baa1, and the outlook is negative. Discussions to involve private investors in a new rescue plan for Greece make it more likely that the European Union will require the same pre-conditions in the case of Portugal, Moody’s said in a statement.

“That’s very significant because not only does it affect current investors, but it is likely to discourage new private- sector lending going forward, and therefore reduce the likelihood that a country like Portugal will be able to regain access to the capital markets at a sustainable cost,” Anthony Thomas, a senior analyst at Moody’s in London, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Greek Rescue Snarled by Sales

By STEPHEN FIDLER And MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG

Europe's hopes for a significant contribution by private bondholders to a new bailout for Greece are fading, as it becomes clear that banks have sold off a substantial proportion of their Greek government-bond holdings despite pledges by some of the institutions not to do so.

Greece has about €64 billion ($93 billion) of benchmark bonds coming due in the next three years, among other liabilities, and euro-zone leaders had hoped that private lenders would voluntarily take on longer maturities in order to improve the country's battered finances

Greek Finance Minister Moves From Crisis to Crisis

By LANDON THOMAS Jr. and RACHEL DONADIO

Published: July 5, 2011

ATHENS — As he approached the end of another 16-hour workday, Evangelos Venizelos had one question on his mind: Will Europe come up with the money that Greece so desperately needs? As the new Greek finance minister, Mr. Venizelos is the man in charge of steering a nearly bankrupt economy back on track — and, perhaps, preventing another global financial crisis.

No sooner had he presided over the close passage of a new austerity bill last week, than he was contending with the growing controversy over how much money private banks would contribute by taking on more Greek debt.

Greek Opposition Slams Tax Rises

Samaras—Potential Contender for Prime Minister—Says Bailout Plan Is 'Failure

By ALKMAN GRANITSAS And MARCUS WALKER

ATHENS—The international plan to fix Greece's finances is failing and needs a rethink, the head of Greece's main opposition party said in an interview.

Instead of strangling the Greek economy with tax increases, Europe and the International Monetary Fund should let Greece cut taxes to jump-start growth, said Antonis Samaras, leader of the center-right New Democracy party and possibly the country's next prime minister.

The austerity program for Greece "is a failure," Mr. Samaras said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, his first with international media since becoming Greece's opposition leader. Citing Greece's poor tax revenues amid a worsening recession, he said: "I think our lenders will have to change their policy. My question is why do we have to go further down the drain in the meantime?"

Πρόγραμμα Οικονομικής Προσαρμογής της Ελλάδας

 Τέταρτη Επανεξέταση – 'Ανοιξη 2011

ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ

Κοινό κλιμάκιο της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής, της Ευρωπαϊκής Κεντρικής Τράπεζας και του Διεθνούς Νομισματικού Ταμείου συναντήθηκε με τις ελληνικές αρχές στην Αθήνα από 3 Μαΐου έως 2 Ιουνίου και από 21 έως 23 Ιουνίου 2011. Το κλιμάκιο αξιολόγησε τη συμμόρφωση προς τους όρους της τέταρτης επανεξέτασης βάσει του Προγράμματος Οικονομικής Προσαρμογής.

Κατά το τελευταίο έτος το πρόγραμμα οικονομικών πολιτικών φάνηκε να είναι το κατάλληλο πρόγραμμα συνδρομής προς την Ελλάδα ώστε η χώρα να περιορίσει τις μακροοικονομικές και δημοσιονομικές της ανισορροπίες. Οι στόχοι του προγράμματος είναι η αποκατάσταση της δημοσιονομικής διατηρησιμότητας, η διατήρηση της χρηματοπιστωτικής  σταθερότητας και της ενδεδειγμένης ρευστότητας του τραπεζικού τομέα καθώς και η αποκατάσταση της ανταγωνιστικότητας.

The Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece Fourth Review – Spring 2011

Full text: http://ec.europa.eu/ellada/pdf/20110704economicadjprogrammegreece.pdf

Greek fiscal survival vital for euro zone FinMin

(Reuters) - Greece will stave off default not only for its own sake but because its survival is vital for the euro zone and the global economy, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Reuters on Monday.

With help from its EU partners and fresh determination, the debt-ridden euro zone member will regain its fiscal sovereignty as soon as possible and aims to return to markets in the middle of 2014, as expected, the minister said.

S&P Says Bank Plan Opens Door to Default

By STEPHEN FIDLER in Brussels and COSTAS PARIS and NEELABH CHATURVEDI in London

European efforts to encourage private investors to contribute to a new international bailout for Greece hit new problems Monday when the Standard & Poor's rating company said the leading proposal under consideration would likely bring the country into default.

S.&P. Warns Bank Plan Would Cause Greek Default

PARIS — Greece risks being judged in default on its debt obligations if banks are forced to bear part of the pain, Standard & Poor’s said Monday, suggesting that current proposals for rescuing the euro zone’s weakest member may have to be reconsidered.

In particular, a plan proposed by the French government and banks “could require private sector debt restructuring in a form that we would view as an effective default,” S.&P. said in a statement.

The rating agency also said it was cutting its long-term rating on Greece three notches deeper into junk territory, to CCC from B.

Η αλλαγή του πολιτικού Παραδείγματος

 Κυριακή, 03 Ιούλιος 2011 10:33

Πάσχος Μανδραβέλης

Η Ελλάδα βρίσκεται ακριβώς στην περίοδο «κρίσης Παραδείγματος» και στην αναζήτηση μιας νέας θεώρησης των πολιτικών και κοινωνικών πραγμάτων.

________________________________________

Ένα από τα ερωτήματα που κυκλοφορούν είναι «αν και κατά πόσον το πολιτικό σύστημα που μάς οδήγησε σ' αυτή την κρίση μπορεί και να μάς βγάλει από αυτή». Δύσκολο ερώτημα, διότι όπως έλεγε και ο μεγάλος φυσικός Νιλς Μπορ «οι προβλέψεις είναι δύσκολες, ειδικά όταν αφορούν το μέλλον».

Αλλά, πάλι, το ερώτημα εμπεριέχει μια μπαγαποντιά. Πολλοί από όσους θέτουν το ερώτημα θεωρούν αξιωματικά ότι το πολιτικό σύστημα είναι κάτι που βρίσκεται έξω από τις κοινωνικές διεργασίες και αυτονομημένο κατάφερε να μάς οδηγήσει στην κρίση. Ταυτόχρονα, όμως, θεωρούν ως το μέγιστο αμάρτημα αυτού τού πολιτικού συστήματος τον «φόβο τού πολιτικού κόστους». Δηλαδή κατηγορούν το πολιτικό σύστημα ότι δεν έδρασε επαρκώς αυτόνομα από την κοινωνική θέληση, ώστε να λάβει τα «αντιλαϊκά μέτρα» που απαιτούνταν για να μην οδηγηθούμε στην κρίση.

S&P warning adds default threat to Greece's bailout

(Reuters) - Greece would likely be in default if it follows a debt rollover plan pushed by French banks, S&P warned on Monday, deepening the pain of a bailout that one European official said will cost Athens sovereignty and jobs.

European politicians and bankers had expressed confidence last week that the French proposal would not trigger a default, but ratings agency Standard & Poor's said it would involve losses to debt holders, most likely earning Greece a "selective default" rating. "It is our view that each of the two financing options described in the (French banks') proposal would likely amount to a default under our criteria," S&P said.

French banks, major holders of Greek sovereign debt, proposed voluntarily renewing some of the bonds when they fall due, but on different terms.

Greece Awaits Further Rescue

Εuro-zone finance ministers signed off on a new slice of bailout money for Greece, avoiding a financial meltdown this month, but left themselves with a heavy task ahead to work out details for a new rescue package for the country.

The ministers' agreement in a teleconference call on Saturday evening leaves only the expected approval of the board of the International Monetary Fund before €12 billion ($17.4 billion) is handed over to Athens. The payment is expected by July 15.

Geithner mulls departing Treasury post: sources

1-7-2011

(Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is considering stepping down later this year, but will not make a decision until contentious negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling are completed, people familiar with his thinking said on Thursday.

Geithner said he would remain in his Treasury post "for the foreseeable future" and sidestepped a direct question about his career plans after a flurry of media reports that he was mulling leaving the Obama administration.