It's The Euro, Stupid

Frances Coppola, Contributor

I write about banking, finance and economics.

FORBES

A few days ago the German constitutional court referred the question of the legality of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) to the European Court of Justice (ECJ), claiming that the ECB was straying into fiscal policy that was beyond its mandate and that OMT breached EU treaty directives outlawing monetary financing of governments.

Eurozone watchdog says some banks should go under: FT

FRANKFURT/LINKOPING, Sweden Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:04pm EST

(Reuters) - Some of the euro zone's lenders have no future and should be allowed to go under if they fail a health check, the bloc's new banking supervisor told the Financial Times, underscoring a tougher approach to banking oversight.

Daniele Nouy told the newspaper that if any of the region's participating banks fail the European Central Bank's comprehensive assessment then they could be wound down, and that merging them in order to save them was not an option.

River Thames Bursts Banks, Flooding Homes Near London

Flooding Follows Wettest January Since 1776

The Wall Street Journal

By NICHOLAS WINNING

Updated Feb. 10, 2014 7:46 p.m. ET

LONDON—Hundreds of homes have flooded and hundreds more are at risk to the west of London after the River Thames burst its banks on Monday as England continued to suffer from one of the wettest winters in more than two centuries, authorities said.

With waters predicted to rise further this week, Prime Minister David Cameron said the government would do all it could to assist those affected as he visited flood-hit areas in the southwest of England.

Berlin: George Clooney Tells U.K. to Return Art Treasures to Greece

At the press conference for his film "The Monuments Men," Clooney said Greece had "a very good case" in demanding Britain return treasures such as the Elgin Marbles.

George Clooney has called on the U.K. to act as real “Monuments Men” and return historic Greek art  held in British museums.

EU Said to Weigh Extending Greek Loans to 50 Years

By Nikos Chrysoloras and Rebecca Christie  Feb 5, 2014 5:44 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

The next handout to Greece may include extending the maturity on rescue loans to 50 years and cutting the interest rate on some previous aid by 50 basis points, according to two officials with knowledge of discussions being held by European autorities.

The plan, which will be considered by policy makers by May or June, may also include a loan for a package worth between 13 billion euros ($17.6 billion) and 15 billion euros, another official said. Greece, which got 240 billion euros in two bailouts, has previously had its terms eased by the euro zone and International Monetary Fund amid a six-year recession.

UPDATE 1-Greece's 2014 fiscal gap issue largely resolved with lenders-sources

Tue, Feb 4 2014

By Karolina Tagaris , Lefteris Papadimas and Jan Strupczewski

ATHENS/BRUSSELS, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Greece and its foreign lenders have largely bridged differences over a potential fiscal gap this year, removing a key sticking point holding up talks to release more bailout funds, two sources directly involved in the talks said on Tuesday.

The latest review of Greece's progress under its European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout has dragged on since September in large part due to wrangling over how Athens would plug a gap in this year's budget, which had been estimated at 1 billion euros.

Greek leftist seeks negotiated debt write-off

Tue, Feb 4 2014

By Paul Taylor

PARIS, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Greece would seek to negotiate an international write-off of about one-third of its debt if the leftist Syriza opposition party won a general election, its leader said on Tuesday.

Alexis Tsipras, who is leading a Communist-backed pan-European leftist list in European Parliament elections in May, said his country's problems could not be solved by more loans, which just went to service past debts and shore up the banks.

"The solution isn't more loans. The solution is fewer loans and less debt," Tsipras, whose party leads Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' conservative New Democracy in opinion polls, told the Europresse association on a visit to Paris.

New Boss at Microsoft, With Gates at His Side

By NICK WINGFIELDFEB. 4, 2014

SEATTLE — Bill Gates is back in the building at Microsoft.

On Tuesday, Microsoft announced that Mr. Gates, a longtime titan of the tech industry, was shedding his role as chairman to dig in more with products and technology at the company, which he co-founded nearly 40 years ago.

At the same time, he is expected play a distinctly secondary role to Satya Nadella, whom Microsoft named as its new chief executive. Mr. Nadella asked Mr. Gates to become a part-time adviser to him, a change that comes with great potential upsides for the company, but some potential land mines, too.

No end in sight to 'pain' of betting on weaker euro

BY ANIRBAN NAG

LONDON Tue Feb 4, 2014 11:13am EST

(Reuters) - Anyone betting against the euro may well find this strategy remains a "pain trade", even though the common currency has fallen to a 10-week low against the dollar this week.

This drop looks unlikely to be the long-awaited breakout in what has been one of the world's most stable free exchange rates and, in a remarkable change of fortunes, the euro zone is showing signs of becoming a safe haven.

Earthquake strikes off western coast of Greece, USGS says

By Jethro Mullen, CNN

February 3, 2014 -- Updated 0957 GMT (1757 HKT)

(CNN) -- A magnitude-6.1 earthquake struck off the western coast of Greece early Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.

The quake hit near the island of Cephalonia, roughly 300 kilometers (185 miles) west of Athens, at a depth of about 14 kilometers (9 miles), the USGS said.

There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.

Euro May Be Resurfacing as a Safe Haven

Currency Is Bucking Old Trend of Wilting Amid Headwinds

By TOMMY STUBBINGTON

Updated Feb. 3, 2014 3:11 p.m. ET

LONDON—Over the past few years, the euro has been a barometer of risk: When the markets got cloudy, it fell. But in recent weeks, that relationship has changed, leading some analysts to wonder whether Europe, after years of crisis, is becoming a haven again.

When emerging markets took a steep fall in the past few weeks, dragging global assets with them, the euro shrugged it off. On some days, the currency has even managed to rally while stocks are crashing—a tendency usually associated with the Japanese yen or the U.S. dollar.

Germany preparing third financial rescue for Greece

New loan, outlined in a German finance ministry position paper, would be worth €10bn-€20bn, says Der Spiegel magazine

Helena Smith in Athens

The Guardian, Sunday 2 February 2014 20.14 GMT

Greek Bank Deposits Post First Annual Increase in Four Years

By Marcus Bensasson  Jan 29, 2014 6:38 PM GMT+0200

Bloomberg

Greek bank deposits rose 1.1 percent in 2013, the first annual increase since Greece triggered the euro area debt crisis in 2009.

Deposits rose to 163.3 billion euros ($222 billion) in December, from 161 billion euros in November and 161.5 billion euros a year earlier, the Bank of Greece said in a statement on its website today. Deposits are 31 percent below their peak of 237.8 billion euros in September 2009.

The euro’s hellhound

Charlemagne

The Economist

It is time to reform the troika that handles euro zone bail-outs

Feb 1st 2014 | From the print edition

IN GREEK mythology, Cerberus is the three-headed dog guarding the gates to Hades. In modern Greek politics, the troika is the three-headed monster that traps the country in an economic underworld. At the finance ministry in Athens, even the cleaning ladies shout “murderers” at visiting members of the troika. In Lisbon protest banners declare “Fuck the troika”. There is now a popular Portuguese neologism, entroikado, roughly meaning “economically screwed”.

Japan’s Inflation Accelerates as Abe Seeks Wage Gains

By Chikako Mogi, Masahiro Hidaka and James Mayger  Jan 31, 2014 3:49 AM GMT+0200

Japan’s inflation accelerated in December, industrial output gained and a measure of demand for workers strengthened, signaling gains for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to end two decades of stagnation.

Prices excluding fresh food increased 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo, above a median estimate of 1.2 percent in a Bloomberg survey of 32 economists. Industrial production rose 1.1 percent from the previous month, while the number of jobs for every seeker rose to 1.03, exceeding 1 for the first the time since October 2007.

Inflation in Euro Zone Falls as Unemployment Stays Flat

By DAVID JOLLYJAN. 31, 2014
The New York TImes

BRUSSELS — Europe’s labor market remained in the doldrums in December, while the inflation rate ticked back down to the same level that recently led the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, official data showed Friday. The reports suggested that the bank will be under pressure to provide more monetary stimulus to keep a nascent recovery alive.

Slump in euro zone money supply growth highlights deflation risk

FRANKFURT Wed Jan 29, 2014 5:19am EST

(Reuters) - Euro zone money supply growth slowed sharply in December and loans to the private sector contracted further, putting pressure on the European Central Bank to take fresh action to counter the threat of deflation.

With euro zone inflation running well below its target, the ECB forcefully underlined its determination earlier this month to take action should a deflation risk arise or rising money market rates threaten the bloc's fragile recovery.

Data released by the ECB on Wednesday showed that euro zone M3 money supply - a general measure of cash in the economy - grew at an annual pace of 1.0 percent, slowing markedly from 1.5 percent in November.

Carney Says Scotland Can Learn From Euro Crisis in Pound Debate

By Emma Charlton and Jennifer Ryan  Jan 29, 2014 3:15 PM GMT+020

Bloomberg

Scotland will probably need to mirror the euro-region’s integration plans and surrender some sovereignty if the nation votes to separate from the rest of the U.K., Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said.

While First Minister Alex Salmond wants to keep the pound if Scots vote for independence at a Sept. 18 referendum, Carney said policy makers need to “consider carefully” the financial stability risks associated with such a monetary union. Speaking after a meeting today with Salmond in Edinburgh, he said independence will involve “some ceding” of sovereignty.

Europe Puts Pressure on Greece to Meet Budget Targets

The New York Times

By DAVID JOLLYJAN. 27, 2014

BRUSSELS — European officials sought on Monday to keep the pressure on Greece to honor its previously agreed spending and privatization targets as they wrestled with the need to help Athens bridge a funding gap that could reach €15 billion over the next two years.

Greece declares emergency on quake-hit islands

The Washington Post

By Associated Press, Updated: Monday, January 27, 8:30 PM

ATHENS, Greece — Greece’s government announced emergency relief for the residents of the Ionian islands of Kefalonia and Ithaki on Monday, a day after they were hit by a strong earthquake that caused damage and slightly injured seven people.

Sunday’s quake, whose magnitude the Athens Geodynamic Institute revised to 5.9 from the preliminary 5.8, was followed by dozens of aftershocks that continued through Monday.