Schaeuble's Right, The Most Likely Cause Of Grexit Is A Mistake, Human Error

Forbes

By Tim Worstall

This is something that I’ve been saying for some time now, that if Greece really does leave the euro then the most likely cause of it doing so will be that someone has made a mistake. Now, I believe that Greece should leave (in common with many economists): but just about every European politician believes that it should not. And most Greek politicians believe that it should not leave, as is also the express wish of most Greek citizens. Given that it is the politicians actually running things here then there seems to be no good reason why Greece either should or will leave.

If Greece Embraces Uncertainty, Innovation Will Follow

George Serafeim

MARCH 13, 2015

Harvard Business Review

No matter what happens with the Greek bailout, all parties agree that the Greek economy will have to become more competitive. Many politicians and commentators mention two critical factors in accomplishing this: increasing innovative capacity and reducing bureaucracy. Both are important, but they are far more difficult to achieve than many understand because they are, to a significant extent, influenced by culture.

Greece lodges complaint over German FM Schäuble's 'naïve' comment

Greece has accused Germany's finance minister of insulting his Greek counterpart. It comes as talks take place over the country's economic future, and as relations between the two countries reach an all-time low.

The allegation compounds the bad feelings between the two European nations, already strained over Greece's international loans program.

A spokesman for the Greek Foreign Ministry, Constantinos Koutras, confirmed that a complaint was made to the German Foreign Ministry on Tuesday night concerning the alleged remarks.

"As a minister of a country that is our friend and our ally, he cannot personally insult a colleague," Koutras said, but did not go into further detail.

Greece Complains About Schaeuble in Deepening Conflict

by Rainer Buergin, Eleni Chrepa

(Bloomberg) -- Greece’s war of words with Germany deepened as Greece renewed demands for war reparations and formally complained about Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.

Germany and Greece confirmed Thursday that the Greek ambassador in Berlin made an official protest late Tuesday to the German Foreign Ministry over comments made by Schaeuble.

Schaeuble and his Greek counterpart Yanis Varoufakis have traded barbs in recent weeks, with Schaeuble suggesting on Tuesday that Varoufakis needed to look more closely at an agreement Greece signed in February and commenting on his fellow minister’s communication strategy. Schaeuble said Thursday that any suggestion he had insulted Varoufakis was “absurd.”

O.E.C.D. Will Advise Greece on Economic Overhauls

By DAVID JOLLYMARCH 12, 2015

The New York Times

PARIS — Greece will get advice from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on ways to revamp the country’s economy, under a deal announced on Thursday.

The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, and the head of the O.E.C.D., José Ángel Gurría, made the announcement at a news conference in Paris, indicating that Mr. Gurría’s group would help Greece with the economic changes that its international creditors are demanding in exchange for unlocking additional bailout money.

Greece Doesn’t Need Next Aid Tranche to Meet Its Obligations, Tsipras Says

Greek prime minister says the country will fulfill its financial responsibilities

By WILLIAM HOROBIN

March 12, 2015 1:39 p.m. ET

PARIS—Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said Thursday that the country will be able to fulfill its financial responsibilities, even if creditors don't a pay a tranche of aid.

European and International Monetary Fund officials are currently in Athens assessing whether Greece is meeting the conditions for the tranche of aid from the current bailout program of €240 billion ($254.7 billion).

Greek payment deadlines ahead - pressure on Greece is increasing

by Silvia Merler on 10th March 2015

Discussions between Greece and its creditors are due to restart tomorrow. In the meantime, the pressure on Greece is increasing.

 Here we take a look at the relevant deadlines ahead for the Greek State coffers.

Redemptions to official creditors

The path of redemptions to public creditors in 2015 is dominated by repayments to the IMF, T-Bills rollover and repayment of bonds held by the ECB

As previously discussed, the path of redemptions to public creditors in 2015 is dominated by repayments to the IMF, T-Bills rollover and, in July and August, repayment of bonds held by the ECB. In March, Greece has 1.2 billion euros left to repay to the IMF, in three tranches: 335 million will be due on the 13th of March, 558 million on the 16th of March and 335 million on the 20th. On top of this, Greece will need to roll over 1.3 billion of T-Bills expiring on March 13th and 1.6 billion on March 20th. Once the March deadlines have passed, April and May will be relatively quiet, before funding challenges resume in June, and most importantly in the summer with the big tranches due to the ECB.

The EU and Whose Army?

MAR 12, 2015 5:03 AM EDT

By The Editors

Bloomberg

Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, has correctly identified a serious problem: Europe's military and diplomatic ineptitude, most prominently on display in its weak and disorganized response to the crisis in Ukraine. Unfortunately, his proposed solution -- an EU military force -- is unworkable, impolitic and unwise.

Delight or Dread as Euro Falls

By DAVID JOLLYMARCH 11, 2015

 The New York Times

PARIS — For Hervé Montjotin, chief executive of the French trucking and logistics group Norbert Dentressangle, the euro’s steep plunge against the dollar could not be more welcome.

In the months since his company bought Jacobson, an American contract logistics company, the currency’s decline — down about 23 percent over the past year — has meant a windfall when dollars earned in the United States are translated back into euros.

“We bought a profitable business, and that business now makes 20 percent more in euros than when we got it,” he said. “We’ve either been very skilled or very lucky.”

Get Receipts, Win a Car: How Greece’s VAT Lottery Plan Worked in Portugal

By  PATRICIA KOWSMANN

The Wall Street Journal

Greece has been mocked for coming up with unusual measures to tackle tax evasion, from hiring students and tourists as undercover inspectors to offering lottery prizes tied to sales-tax receipts.

To know if at least one of these measures work, take a look at Portugal.

Since April last year, the Portuguese government has been running a raffle for people who demand receipts for the goods and services they buy, thereby forcing those businesses to pay value-added taxes. The result? More than 40 lucky Portuguese are now in the possession of a brand new Audi. And revenue from VAT has risen more than 4%, or €563 million ($611 million), while private consumption rose just 2%.

Germany used legal tricks to avoid WW2 reparations: Greece

BY LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS

ATHENS Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:04pm EDT

(Reuters) - Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras accused Germany on Tuesday of using legal tricks to avoid paying reparations for the Nazi occupation of Greece and said he would support parliamentary efforts to review the matter.

His comments are likely to heighten tensions between Athens and Berlin as Greece's new, leftist government struggles to persuade its euro zone partners to renegotiate the terms of a 240 billion euro ($260 billion) bailout.

Chances Of Greek Euro Exit Have Not Diminished

 By Henry To 

 Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/03/09/chances-of-greek-euro-exit-have-not-diminished/

Both European politicians and investors must be experiencing a sense of déjà vu with the current Greek government and its fruitless attempts to extract more lenient terms for its 240 billion euro bailout package orchestrated by the troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF ).

Germany's Merkel narrowly avoided bigger revolt on Greece - sources

BY MATTHIAS SOBOLEWSKI AND STEPHEN BROWN

BERLIN Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:04pm EDT

(Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel narrowly averted a far bigger rebellion last month on Greece's bailout extension among her conservatives, many more of whom would have voted 'Nein' but for her finance minister's powers of persuasion, lawmakers said.

A new low for German-Greek relations?

Yesterday's threat by Greek Defence Minister Panos Kammenos of the Independent Greeks to 'flood' Europe with refugees including potential IS members has arguably brought German-Greek relations to a new low.

Pawel Swidlicki,  Policy Analyst

http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/new-low-german-greek-relations/

9 March 2015

Since it came to power, the SYRIZA-Independent Greeks coalition has effectively written the textbook of how not to negotiate in Europe. Irrespective of whether one agrees with them on substance, they spend too much political capital on pointless posturing and divisive rhetoric. However, despite the lack of success so far, it appears that some in Athens are now seeking to ramp up the rhetoric as opposed to dialing it down.

Dollar Hits Fresh Highs Against Euro, Yen

Traders say Greenback Being Bought Ahead of Next Week’s FOMC meeting

By HIROYUKI KACHI

Updated March 10, 2015 3:14 a.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal

The dollar set fresh multiyear highs against the euro and the yen in Asian trade Tuesday, as market participants bet on the continuing divergence in monetary and economic conditions in the U.S., the eurozone and Japan.

The common currency fell to $1.0785—its lowest since Sept. 3, 2003—in midday trading before stabilizing at $1.0796 midway through afternoon trading.

EU, Greece to start technical loan talks Wednesday

BY JAN STRUPCZEWSKI AND RENEE MALTEZOU

BRUSSELS Mon Mar 9, 2015 4:47pm EDT

(Reuters) - Warning Greece it had "no time to lose", euro zone ministers agreed technical talks between finance experts from Athens and its international creditors would start on Wednesday with the aim of unlocking further funding.

"We've talked about this long enough now," an impatient-sounding Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem said after chairing Monday's meeting of euro zone colleagues, their first since Feb. 20, when they extended Greece's bailout deal to June.

Euro Area Pushes Greece to Open Books as Talks Resume

by Rebecca ChristieCorina Ruhe, Jonathan Stearns

(Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers piled pressure on Greece to open its books and follow through with pledges agreed to in its rescue package, as the country tries to avoid running out of cash as soon as this month.

Οικονομία σε ελεύθερη πτώση

ΜΙΡΑΝΤΑ ΞΑΦΑ

Εφημερίδα Καθημερινή

Επικαλούμενος την ανάγκη ανάκτησης της εθνικής κυριαρχίας και αξιοπρέπειας, ο κ. Τσίπρας οδηγεί τη χώρα σε τρίτο Μνημόνιο. Οι πολιτικές που έχει εξαγγείλει αυξάνουν τις κρατικές δαπάνες χωρίς να διευκρινίζουν από πού θα βρεθούν οι πόροι. Η προηγούμενη κυβέρνηση έδωσε ένα «κοινωνικό μέρισμα» από το περίσσευμα που προέκυψε από την υπερκάλυψη του στόχου για το πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα. Η σημερινή κυβέρνηση δεν έχει μπορέσει να εξηγήσει πώς θα χρηματοδοτηθούν οι παροχές που σχεδιάζει, πέρα από αοριστολογίες περί πάταξης της φοροδιαφυγής. Ομως οι παροχές είναι μετρήσιμες και άμεσες, ενώ τα έσοδα από την πάταξη της φοροδιαφυγής είναι απροσδιόριστα και αβέβαια, επομένως το αυριανό Eurogroup δεν πρόκειται να εγκρίνει τέτοια έσοδα ως «ισοδύναμα» για κάλυψη δαπανών.

Creditors Reject Greece's Reform Proposals

by Nikolaos Chrysoloras

Eleni Chrepa

(Bloomberg) -- Greece’s provisional agreement with creditors to avert a default started to crack as European officials said the country’s latest proposals fell far short of what was put forward two weeks ago and Greek ministers floated the prospect of a referendum if their reforms are rejected.

The list of measures Greece’s government sent to euro-region finance ministers last Friday, including the idea of hiring non-professional tax collectors, is “far” from complete and the country probably won’t receive an aid disbursement this month, Eurogroup Chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Sunday. German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter said ministers are not expected to advance on Greece today.

Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem: Greece reform outline 'far from complete'

AMSTERDAM Mon Mar 9, 2015 4:22am EDT

(Reuters) - A list of reforms proposed by Greece last week to help it win creditor support is "far from complete," the head of the Eurogroup said.

Speaking at an event in Amsterdam on Sunday, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who is also Dutch finance minister, said the Greek proposal was "serious" but not enough.