The euro-zone revival

Don’t get europhoric

The Economist

Investors are becoming excited about Europe again—too excited

Apr 11th 2015 |

RECOVERY (noun): restoration to a former or better condition. The euro zone is at last enjoying an upturn. Economists are savouring the unaccustomed pleasure of revising their growth forecasts up, rather than down. Surveys of business activity have reached a four-year high and euro-area consumers are feeling a lot more confident. Investors are excited, too. Money is rushing into the region’s stockmarkets. In March European equity funds notched up record inflows.

Greece makes IMF payment, gets bank funds, but doubts remain

BRUSSELS/ATHENS | BY JAN STRUPCZEWSKI AND GEORGE GEORGIOPOULOS

(Reuters) - Greece made a crucial payment to the International Monetary Fund and won extra emergency lending for its banks on Thursday but it remained unclear whether Athens can satisfy skeptical creditors on economic reforms before it runs out of money.

Euro zone partners gave Greece six working days to improve a package of proposed reforms in time for finance ministers of the currency bloc to consider whether to release more funds to keep the country afloat when they meet on April 24.

Swiss, Mexican Bond Deals Represent Milestones for Debt

Switzerland is first with 10-year bond at negative yield as Mexico lines up 100-year euro bond

 The Wall Street Journal

By EMESE BARTHA in Frankfurt, CHIARA ALBANESE in London and ANTHONY HARRUP in Mexico City

Updated April 8, 2015 9:10 p.m. ET

62 COMMENTS

Until Wednesday, no country had ever sold 10-year debt that gives investors a yield of below 0%. And no country had ever issued a 100-year bond denominated in euros.

Piketty Says EU Politics Risks Driving Greece Out of Euro

by Mark DeenManus Cranny

10:14 PM EEST

April 8, 2015

 Bloomberg

Thomas Piketty, the French economist whose 2013 book on wealth inequality became an international bestseller, said he sees a risk of politicians in the European Union forcing Greece out of the euro area.

The Case for Letting Greece Go

The risk now is political contagion from rewarding non-reform.

The Wall Street Journal

April 8, 2015 7:31 p.m. ET

"...What’s not sustainable is allowing euro members to bully their way into deals in which they reap the rewards of a currency union without living by its rules...."

Thursday marks another deadline in Greece’s struggle to avoid default, as a €450 million payment to the International Monetary Fund comes due. Athens says it will meet this obligation, but sooner or later Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his government will miss a payment to someone if it doesn’t agree with creditors on a new bailout. An exit from the euro would then be a real possibility.

Greek leader courts Russia but seeks no direct aid

MOSCOW | BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND DENIS PINCHUK

(Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won pledges of closer cooperation from Russia at talks in the Kremlin on Wednesday but President Vladimir Putin said Athens had not asked for money to ease its debt crisis.

The visit, as Athens seeks funds to make debt repayments, caused concern in some European Union states that Greece could break ranks over economic sanctions on Russia to secure aid or use the trip to pressure its EU allies to release financing.

Greece Should Be Wary of Mr. Putin

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD

APRIL 7, 2015

The New York Times

The Greek government is facing a series of daunting challenges. It has to come up with money to pay off maturing debts, revive its devastated economy and renegotiate its loan agreements with other countries in the eurozone. Given those difficulties, it might be tempting — though misguided — for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to seek financial or other support from President Vladimir Putin of Russia, whom he is scheduled to meet in Moscow on Wednesday.

Mr Tsipras goes to Moscow

Greece and Russia

The Economist

Playing the Russia card cannot solve Greece's euro zone woes

Apr 7th 2015 | Europe

ALEXIS TSIPRAS, Greece's prime minister (pictured), heads to Moscow this week with his country's future in the euro zone hanging in the balance. Greece's negotiations with its creditors over the release of €7.2 billion ($7.8 billion) of bail-out money are still going nowhere, even as its coffers run dry. The government is raiding state kitties and delaying payments to suppliers in order to meet its obligations to creditors, most urgently a €458m payment due to the IMF on April 9th and €700m in treasury bills held by foreign investors, which are unlikely to be rolled over at maturity next week. But before long it will need a proper financing strategy.

Greece is probably already defaulting on its debt. Here’s why

Forbes 

by Geoffrey Smith  @Geoffreytsmith 

APRIL 7, 2015, 12:53 PM EDT

Avoiding a ‘hard’ default doesn’t rule out the softer forms, and there seems little reason to suppose that they won’t become visible soon.

The bad news is that Greece is already (probably) defaulting.

The good news is that it’s not going to be on you, dear taxpayer (and indirect contributor to the International Monetary Fund).

Could Greece Pivot To Russia And China?

Raoul Ruparel Contributor

Forbes

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras heads to Moscow tomorrow amongst significant noise around a potential Greek pivot towards Russia and China. But how realistic a proposition is this? The short answer is, not very. Most of the noise is precisely that, just noise. But it is worth exploring in more detail just why this is the case and what it means for the current negotiations around Greece’s position in the Eurozone and EU-Russia relations.

Greece’s Worst Option: IMF Default

APR 6, 2015 3:00 AM EDT

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis's surprise decision to meet with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde in Washington on Sunday added to the suspense over whether Greece would make its April 9 debt payment to the fund.

This is a consequential question because defaults on loans from the IMF, one of the world’s few “preferred creditors,” are extremely rare. When they have occurred, the debtors have tended to be fragile or failed states in the developing world and not advanced countries, let alone members of the euro zone, one of the world’s elite economic groups.

Greece Must Walk the Talk, and Soon

APRIL 6, 2015

The New  York Times

By HUGO DIXON | REUTERS

Greece has two weeks to produce some red meat.

The prospect of a default is off the table for the time being after Yanis Varoufakis, the country’s finance minister, confirmed that Greece would meet a payment to the International Monetary Fund on Thursday. But, with more payments looming, the fear of bankruptcy will be back by the end of April if Greece doesn’t come up with some serious overhauls by then.

Greece needs deal with lenders on April 24 -finance minister to paper

Mon Apr 6, 2015 7:53am EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

(Reuters) - Greece must reach an outline funding agreement with its lenders at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on April 24, its finance minister told a Greek newspaper on Monday.

"At the Eurogroup (meeting) of April 24 there must be a preliminary conclusion (of the talks), as per the Eurogroup accord on Feb. 20," Yanis Varoufakis told daily Naftemporiki.

Ex-Bank of England boss sees a way to a ‘rapidly growing’ Greece

Published: Apr 3, 2015 1:19 p.m. ET

By SILVIA ASCARELLI SENIOR NEWS EDITOR

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—If Greece were to leave the eurozone, it would face “pretty horrendous” times in the short term, a former head of the Bank of England said.

But after 2 1/2 to three years, it would have a “rapidly growing” economy and falling unemployment, said Meryvn King, who ran the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013. He spoke before an audience of mostly Princeton University professors and students Thursday.

Greece moves to quell default fears, pledges to meet 'all obligations'

WASHINGTON | BY ANNA YUKHANANOV

(Reuters) - Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Sunday that Greece "intends to meet all obligations to all its creditors, ad infinitum," seeking to quell default fears ahead of a big loan payment Athens owes the IMF later this week.

Following a meeting with the head of the International Monetary Fund, Varoufakis told reporters the government plans to "reform Greece deeply" and would seek to improve the "efficacy of negotiations" with its creditors.

Greece Debt Default: German Intransigence Raises Spectre for ‘Grexit’

By Nile Bowie

Global Research, April 05, 2015

New Eastern Outlook

Greece’s newly elected government, led by the leftist Syriza coalition that swept into power in January on an anti-austerity platform, finds itself in a highly unenviable position. Athens is burdened by colossal debt, imminent liquidity problems and a looming banking collapse. What is at stake for Greece now is its very ability to survive economically within the euro-zone.

The Syriza coalition emerged from various offshoots of the Greek radical left, which set itself apart from the political mainstream by taking an anti-capitalist position emphasizing wealth redistribution and class struggle, while allying itself with alter-globalization movements and trade unions. The ascension of Syriza represents the most leftward shift in European politics in decades.

Buffett not alone in failing to grasp Grexit dangers

If Mr Buffett seriously thinks that the euro would be strengthened by a Greek exit, which is what he said, then he needs his head examined.

The Telegraph

By Jeremy Warner7:30PM BST 04 Apr 2015

It is hard to think of a nicer and wiser capitalist than Warren Buffett, but every man has his day, and the time may finally have come for the Sage of Omaha to spend more time with his ukulele.

I say this because last week he demonstrably broke one of his first rules of investment, which is never get involved in things you don’t fully understand.

Both sides are playing a risky game over Greece. Are we approaching the end?

The Greek negotiations have resembled Zeno’s dichotomy paradox, with the two sides halving the distance between each other but never meeting

 The Telegraph

By Ben Wright8:18PM BST 02 Apr 2015

Is this it? Are we reaching the event horizon beyond which the gravitational pull of Greece’s debts becomes so great that escape is rendered impossible?

Time and money are both dwindling. No one knows precisely when the Athenian coffers will contain nothing but moths and lint.

What To Buy If Greece Exits The Euro Zone

 4/03/2015 @ 7:41μμ

 \By Henry To

 The Forbes

Earlier last month, we discussed why the chance of a long-term solution to keep Greece in the Euro Zone was slim, due to three reasons:

Greece's Syriza Confronts Reality

11 APR 2, 2015 10:15 AM EDT

By Leonid Bershidsky

Reality does depressing things to dreams. It kills them off quickly and mercilessly, and because people have short memories and dreams are short-lived, we often forget what they were like when they began. This is why it's worthwhile to compare Greece's first "full summary" of reforms, released today, to be undertaken so the country can unlock financing from international creditors, with the election program that the ruling Syriza party announced last September.