Opinion: The ‘Grexit’ issue and the problem of free trade

Published: Apr 22, 2015 10:55 a.m. ET

Market Watch

By

GEORGE

FRIEDMAN

The Greek crisis is moving toward a climax.

The issue is actually quite simple. The Greek government owes a great deal of money to European institutions and the International Monetary Fund. It has accumulated this debt over time, but it has become increasingly difficult for Greece to meet its payments. If Greece doesn’t meet these payments, the IMF and European institutions have said they will not extend any more loans to Greece. Greece must make a calculation. If it pays the loans on time and receives additional funding, will it be better off than not paying the loans and being cut off from more?

Europe's Collision Course With Greece

17 APR 22, 2015 2:00 AM EDT

By Clive Crook

Bloomberg

The brinkmanship over Greece and its debts continues. A meeting of finance ministers in Riga on Friday is likely to pass, like many previous make-or-break moments, without resolution. The European Union isn't deviating, and neither is Athens. Before much longer, though, something really will have to give -- and it seems ever more probable that, when it does, the news will be bad.

Επικοινωνία και Αλήθεια.

Φοβάμαι ότι όλα όσα προβάλει η κυβέρνηση για να υπερασπίσει το έργο της, δεν είναι επικοινωνιακή μαεστρία. Πιστεύουν στ' αλήθεια στον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, ότι υπάρχει σχέδιο για την υποταγή της κυβέρνησης, ότι οι Ευρωπαίοι είναι συνεννοημένοι εχθροί και θα στραγγαλίσουν την Αριστερά και ότι η ντόπια ολιγαρχία έχει βάλει το χεράκι της. Το τέλος αυτού του δρόμου οδηγεί στην Δραχμή. Εκτός κι αν περιμένουν να νικήσουν όταν θα είναι ετοιμοθάνατη η οικονομία μετά από τα δανεικά που θα έχει πληρώσει η χώρα συν τρέχουσες δαπάνες του κράτους (μισθοί συντάξεις κλπ). Θα υποχωρήσουν σίγουρα οι Ευρωπαίοι; Το Ευρώ μπορεί να κινδυνεύσει και με την παραμονή της Ελλάδας, αν αυτή γίνει με τους όρους του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ. Τότε μάλιστα εκτός από το Ευρώ θα κινδυνεύσουν και οι συντηρητικές κυβερνήσεις που σήμερα καλούνται να δεχθούν την εκταμίευση της τελευταίας δόσης. Μήπως ο στρατηγικός στόχος του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ είναι, οι υπόλοιπες ευρωπαϊκές κυβερνήσεις να διακινδυνεύσουν την τύχη του Ευρώ και να αυτοκτονήσουν πολιτικά δίνοντας στον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ τα 7,2 δις της τελευταίας δόσης; Όσο για τον κίνδυνο μετάδοσης της κρίσης στην παγκόσμια οικονομία, αυτό σίγουρα θα κινητοποιούσε τις μεγάλες οικονομίες του πλανήτη για να παρέμβουν προς όφελος ενός συμβιβασμού έστω κι αν κάτι τέτοιο θα έβλαπτε πολιτικά κάποιες Ευρωπαϊκές κυβερνήσεις. Και πράγματι (όπως και το 2010) οι ΗΠΑ έπαιξαν αυτό τον ρόλο. Τι έκανε η κυβέρνηση για να επενδύσει σε αυτή την ωφέλιμη στάση των ΗΠΑ; Αποφάσισε ότι η Ελλάδα δεν εκβιάζεται, δεν γονατίζει και απελευθερώνει τον Σ Ξηρό! Ο καλόπιστος πολίτης δεν μπορεί να μην αναρωτηθεί πως αυτό εξυπηρετεί την διαπραγμάτευση και τα συμφέροντα της χώρας. Η αλήθεια είναι πως δεν τα εξυπηρετεί. Η αλήθεια είναι ότι η διαπραγμάτευση του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ δεν εξυπηρετεί κανένα εθνικό συμφέρον. Τα μέτρα που ζητάνε οι δανειστές έχουν κόστος 2-3 δις. Η δόση είναι 7,2 δις. Έχουμε χάσει το 25% του ΑΕΠ μας. Είχαμε άλλα 2-3 δις μέτρα την στιγμή ακριβώς που άρχιζε η οικονομία να αναπτύσσεται η ανεργία να πέφτει, τα κόκκινα δάνεια να μειώνονται. Όταν κάποιος που μόλις ανάρρωσε από ίωση ξαναρρωστήσει κινδυνεύει με πνευμονία. Αυτό παθαίνει η χώρα σήμερα. Βιώνουμε τα πρώτα συμπτώματα. Οι μαέστροι του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ να έχουν υπ’ όψιν τους ότι τα επικοινωνιακά τους χαρίσματα δεν θα βοηθήσουν σε τίποτε όταν η χώρα συντριβεί, γιατί ακριβώς εκεί την πάνε. Αυτοί που τους πιστέψανε δεν είναι μαέστροι και αυτό που θα κρατάνε δεν θα είναι μπαγκέτα…

On Greece, Europe Bluffs Itself

How different is Greece really from France, Italy and Spain?

The Wall Street Journal

By HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR.

April 21, 2015 7:31 p.m. ET

Greece’s new leader and his ministers are behaving like fools in their debt showdown with the European union. So claims much of the punditry and you won’t find an argument here. They’ve taunted Germany about war reparations, threatened to open their borders to jihadists trying to enter Europe and cozied up to Vladimir Putin.

They also haven’t presented a compelling alternative plan for Greece’s recovery because, as socialists, they must oppose many things that would do the Greek economy long-term good, such as privatization and deregulation. “There will not be the slightest privatization in the country, particularly of strategic sectors of the economy,” says a key member of the government.

Let Greece Stumble Out of the Euro

34 APR 20, 2015 11:19 AM EDT

By Mark Gilbert

Bloomberg 

As the weeks since the Greek election have rolled into months, the government elected in January seems no closer to resolving the dichotomy between its anti-austerity inclinations and the reforms its creditors demand as the cost of handing over more money. Today's news that the government has seized the cash of the nation's local governments, citing "extremely urgent and unforeseen needs," suggests the money really is running out. And none of the likely scenarios for what happens next seems compatible with Greece staying in the euro.

Greece's fate hangs in balance amid contagion fear

Holly Ellyatt   | @HollyEllyatt

20-4-2015

 CNBC

As negotiations between Greece and its international lenders drag on, and the country's much-needed financial aid hangs in the balance, euro zone finance ministers told CNBC that the outcome of ongoing discussions was uncertain.

This tiny European state may trigger a Grexit

Dhara Ranasinghe       | @DharaCNBC

20-4-2015

CNBC

Finland's rigid stance over euro zone bailouts could become even more hardline after the weekend's election, in what would be a further blow to beleaguered Greece as it tries to avert a default.

A parliamentary election on Sunday in the small, northern euro zone state was won by the opposition Centre Party's Juha Sipila.

Euro Area Seeks Greece Roadmap to May Agreement

 Bloomberg

by Rebecca Christie

12:21 AM EEST

April 20, 2015

Greece needs to show euro-area nations what it could deliver by mid-May to unlock new aid payments and avoid default, the European commissioner in charge of euro matters said.

Finance ministry deputies will hold a conference call April 22, followed by the April 24 meeting of ministers from the currency bloc. The gathering in Riga, Latvia’s capital, is a chance to lay out a path to a May agreement, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said in an interview in Washington.

Notes on Greece

 APRIL 19, 2015 5:05 AM

The New York Times

By Paul Krugman

OK, that was intense. I’ll write more about my visit, but right now (from Frankfurt, where I’m laying over for a couple of hours) I want to make a data point. about just how much adjustment Greece has done.

Greece wants EU/IMF deal but impasse could bring referendum: deputy PM

Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:57pm EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

ATHENS

(Reuters) - Greece aims for a deal with its creditors over a reforms package but will not retreat from its red lines, the country's deputy prime minister told the Sunday newspaper To Vima, not ruling out a referendum or early polls if talks reach an impasse.

Greece Remains Defiant as Creditors Step Up Pressure for a Deal

Apr 19, 2015 3:23 PM EEST

Bloomberg

Greece said it won’t renege on election pledges to end austerity measures as creditors pressed for a compromise to free financing and avert a widening crisis.

U.S. President Barack Obama and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi both called on the Greek government to do more to resolve the standoff amid depleting cash reserves. Greek officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis, stood their ground.

Draghi Says Urgent Need for Greece to Strike Bailout Deal

by Stefan RiecherMark Deen

8:06 PM EEST

April 18, 2015

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged Greece to work quickly toward an agreement with its creditors to curb a deepening financial crisis and quash doubts over its membership of the euro.

Even as he warned investors against dumping the single currency, Draghi said Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government must do “much more work” to show it can satisfy the terms of its 240 billion-euro ($259 billion) bailout program.

“It’s urgent,” Draghi told reporters in Washington on Saturday during meetings of the International Monetary Fund. “We all want Greece to succeed. The answer is in the hands of the Greek government.”

ECB’s Draghi Rejects Talk of Greek Euro Exit

At IMF meetings in Washington, European Central Bank chief reiterates euro is irrevocable

The Wall Street Journal

By BRIAN BLACKSTONE And  IAN TALLEY

Updated April 18, 2015 4:37 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON—European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Saturday rejected speculation that Greece may be forced to abandon the euro, reiterating that Europe’s single currency is irrevocable.

ECB's Mario Draghi Makes A Dreadful Mistake Over Greece And The Euro

APR 19, 2015 @ 1:32 PM 2,697 VIEWS

Forbes

By Tim Worstall

At least this is the way that I am reading this, when Mario Draghi said that the euro is irreversible, a one way street only. Therefore no one should be speculating about Greece leaving the single currency. The reason why that’s such a dreadful mistake to my mind is that it takes away the Great Big Bargaining Cluebat that the Eurogroup has over Greece.

IMF Official Sees Greek Bailout Needing Several More Weeks of Talks

Comments come as U.S. privately urges Greek officials to reach a deal that would satisfy creditors

By IAN TALLEY and  GABRIELE STEINHAUSER

Updated April 17, 2015 8:14 p.m. ET

11 COMMENTS

WASHINGTON—Negotiations over fresh emergency financing for Greece are likely to take several more weeks, even though the cash-needy government in Athens requires a deal to help it meet a big increase in debt payments due in June, a senior International Monetary Fund official said Friday.

Greece's Main Creditors Said to Be Unwilling to Allow Euro Exit

by Nikos ChrysolorasArne Delfs

6:55 PM EEST

April 17, 2015

Bloomberg 

Greece’s major creditors are not ready to let the country drop out of the euro as long as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shows willingness to meet at least some key demands, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

Greece Enters Twilight Zone as Visions of Euro Exit Take Shape

by Nikos ChrysolorasJames Hertling

11:37 AM EEST

April 17, 2015

With Greek officials hinting they could be forced from the euro and the country’s creditors growing frustrated with the government’s foot-dragging, analysts are asking what might happen if talks break down.

German officials are “taking just about everything into consideration,” Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview this week as he urged Greek leader Alexis Tsipras to stop offering his people false hopes. Economists such as UniCredit Bank AG’s Erik Nielsen say it may be just a matter of time before Tsipras’s cash supplies run out and he’s forced to print a new currency.

Grexit Threat Returns as Investors Bet on Greek Default

The Forbes

APR 16, 2015 @ 3:46 PM 671 VIEWS

Dollar bulls are retreating on Thursday after the greenback struggled for traction against several currencies, and investors are increasingly betting on Greece exiting the eurozone in the not-too-distant future.

Don’t Blame Germany for Greece’s Profligacy

Greece would have faced far greater austerity had Germany and the rest of the EU not come to its rescue.

The Wall Street Journal

By JEREMY BULOW And  KENNETH ROGOFF

Updated April 16, 2015 7:19 p.m. ET

In the court of world opinion, a large majority seems to believe that even if the Greeks may have been a tad fiscally irresponsible, it is the Germans who have driven Greece into depression through cruel insistence on austerity and debt repayments.

Greece Creditors Grim on Prospects of Deal

Government bond prices plummet as lenders voice dismay on lack of progress in talks

The Wall Street Journal

By MARCUS WALKER

April 16, 2015 10:56 p.m. ET

Greece’s international creditors signaled they are losing hope that Athens will do what is needed to unlock bailout funds before it runs out of money, and Greek government bond prices plunged as concerns rose about default and an exit from the eurozone.