This tiny European state may trigger a Grexit

Dhara Ranasinghe       | @DharaCNBC

20-4-2015

CNBC

Finland's rigid stance over euro zone bailouts could become even more hardline after the weekend's election, in what would be a further blow to beleaguered Greece as it tries to avert a default.

A parliamentary election on Sunday in the small, northern euro zone state was won by the opposition Centre Party's Juha Sipila.

He may have to rely on the euro-sceptic Finns Party for support to form a coalition government – a development that analysts say raises risks to the future of the euro area. The Finns Party is against sovereign bailouts and wants to boot Greece from the 19-member euro zone.

Read MoreGreece's fate hangs in balance amid contagion fear

"Finland was in the anti-bailout camp before yesterday's election and it's now likely to take an even harder line towards Greece," Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy, told CNBC.

While Finland has a land area of over 300,000 square kilometres, its population size is relatively small at about 5.4 million compared with 80.6 million in Germany, 66 million in France and 11 million in Greece.

Spiro added that while the Finns Party was likely to have a prominent role in the Centre-led coalition, other Finnish parties had already toughened their stance towards Greece. According to Finland's state broadcaster YLE, the Centre Party won 49 seats in the 200-member parliament based on almost 99 percent of the votes, while the Finns won 38 seats.

"When it comes to parliamentary approval for another bailout program for Greece – provided, that is, that Athens and its creditors can reach a deal which, for the time being, looks very unlikely - the Finnish parliament is likely to be even more obstructive than the German one, which is saying something," Spiro said.

It's another key week for Greece, with euro zone finance ministers meeting in Latvia on Friday. Athens has yet to produce a program of reforms that its creditors believe is sufficient to unlock a new tranche of aid, which is vital to prevent a Greek debt default.

Since 2010, Greece has received two financial aid packages worth some 240 billion euros ($258 billion), overseen by the European Union (EU), International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank (ECB).

The bailouts have proved controversial in some euro zone member states such as Germany and Finland.

Voters in Finland, for instance, are concerned about its own weak economy, which has been stuck in recession for three years, hurt by weakness at major employer Nokia and high labour costs.

Further financial aid to Greece could face opposition in the Finish parliament, analysts said.

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"With EU and ECB officials no longer afraid to openly discuss the ramifications and consequences of a Greek default, and the prospect of a deal at this week's EU finance ministers meeting disappearing off into the distance, the odds are rising that we could well see a Greece default sometime in the next few weeks," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a note.

"These concerns are only likely to increase given the weekend elections in Finland which look likely to deliver a government unsympathetic to granting further money for Greece. This would make it extremely difficult to sign off on any new bailout, even if Greece were to ask for one."

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