Opinion: How to know when Greece is about to exit the euro

MATTHEW LYNN'S LONDON EYE GET EMAIL ALERTS

Published: June 17, 2015 3:00 a.m. ET

Market Watch

Crunch talks in Athens. The IMF flying home in a huff. German ministers leaking that the eurozone can survive a Greek exit, and Greek ministers insisting that austerity can’t be tolerated any more.

If it is Wednesday, at least one of those factors must be threatening to dump Greece out of the euro EURUSD, +0.4234%   by the weekend. Or Monday. Or the end of the month.

Merkel Tries to Get Greek Talks Back on Track

by Marcus BensassonNikos Chrysoloras

June 17, 2015 — 12:28 PM EEST Updated on June 18, 2015 — 3:26 AM EEST

Bloomberg

With Greece’s fate in the balance, European finance ministers converge on Luxembourg with little hope for a deal as German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeks to restore calm to increasingly rancorous exchanges.

Ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ που ξέρατε τελειώνει εδώ!

Δημοσιεύθηκε: 10 Ιουνίου 2015 - 07:45

http://m.euro2day.gr/1340079/article.aspx

Απειρία, ιδεολογία, λαϊκισμός και εξουσιομανία είναι τα κύρια χαρακτηριστικά του κυβερνητικού σχήματος. Το θλιβερό και καταστροφικό για τη χώρα παιχνίδι των ψευδαισθήσεων φθάνει στο τέλος του. Είναι η ώρα των αποφάσεων.

Με απόφαση τεσσάρων Ελλήνων στους δέκα η χώρα, ελέω ενός απίθανου και αντιδημοκρατικού εκλογικού συστήματος, έχει σήμερα μία κυβέρνηση άπειρων, απαίδευτων και ιδεολογικά καθυστερημένων καιροσκόπων της πολιτικής, οι οποίοι καλούνται να διαχειριστούν το μέλλον πολλών γενεών Ελλήνων.

Greece's future in EU in doubt if talks fail, central bank warns

 Jun 17, 2015 2:59pm EDT Related: GREECE

ATHENS | BY GEORGE GEORGIOPOULOS AND MATTHIAS WILLIAMS

Reuters

The Greek central bank warned on Wednesday that the country risked a painful exit from the euro and ultimately even the European Union if Athens and its creditors do not strike a swift aid-for-reforms deal.

A top Greek negotiator told Reuters that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' leftist government was ready to make unspecified concessions but he once again ruled out any cuts to pensions - a major sticking point in the negotiations.

Greek PM tears into lenders as euro zone prepares for 'Grexit'

Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:42pm EDT Related: GREECE

ATHENS/BERLIN | BY LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS AND ERIK KIRSCHBAUM

Reuters

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras accused Greece's creditors on Tuesday of trying to "humiliate" Greeks with more cuts as he defied a growing drumbeat of warnings that Europe was preparing for his country to leave the euro.

The unrepentant address to lawmakers after the collapse of talks with European and IMF lenders at the weekend was the clearest sign yet that the leftist leader has no intention of making a last-minute U-turn and accepting austerity cuts needed to unlock frozen aid and avoid a debt default within two weeks.

Greek PM tears into lenders, euro zone prepares for 'Grexit'

Tue Jun 16, 2015 1:46pm EDT Related: GREECE

ATHENS/BERLIN | BY LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS AND ERIK KIRSCHBAUM

Reuters

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras lashed out at Greece's creditors on Tuesday, accusing them of trying to "humiliate" Greeks, as he defied a drumbeat of warnings that Europe is preparing for his country to leave the euro.

The unrepentant address to lawmakers after the collapse of talks with European and IMF lenders at the weekend was the clearest sign yet that the leftist leader has no intention of making a last-minute U-turn and accepting austerity cuts needed to unlock frozen aid and avoid a debt default within two weeks.

How to Defend a Post-Greece Euro

5 JUN 16, 2015 2:00 AM EDT

By Mark Gilbert

Bloomberg

With bailout talks between Greece and its creditors collapsing, it seems sensible to start reflecting on what defenses the euro might need against the fallout of a nation leaving the common-currency project. Once euro membership is proven to be anything but irrevocable, the remaining members will need to reassert their unity. And one way to do that would be to resurrect, in slightly modified form, the concept of euro bonds.

Greek Showdown Puts Merkel's Teflon Legacy at Risk

by Patrick Donahue

June 16, 2015 — 1:14 AM EEST

Bloomberg

The Teflon chancellor may be vulnerable after all.

The specter of insolvency in Greece poses the biggest threat to the legacy of German Chancellor Angela Merkel whose political longevity rests on her crisis-fighting diplomacy.

From the threat of the U.K. leaving the European Union to the festering conflict in Ukraine, Merkel’s credibility as the continent’s most powerful leader and her guiding philosophy of a more united, competitive Europe risks unraveling.

And it might just be Greece, an economy a fraction the size of Germany’s, that could deal the most painful blow.

Greece Won’t Present New Proposal to Eurogroup to Unlock Aid

by Nikos ChrysolorasEleni Chrepa

June 15, 2015 — 4:17 PM EEST Updated on June 16, 2015 — 1:11 PM EEST

Bloomberg

Greece snubbed European pleas to submit a proposal to avert a default, dimming chances of a compromise at a key meeting this week.

Greek stocks fell for a third day on Tuesday on concern time is running out. The country needs to seal an accord or get an extension before the euro area’s bailout expires on June 30, or risk missing payments on its debt of about 313 billion ($354 billion) euros.

“The overwhelming sense of Greece’s creditors is that the government does not fully understand the institutional constraints it faces, the level of reform detail necessary for a deal and that is massively underestimating the risk and impact of capital controls,” Eurasia Group analysts Mujtaba Rahman and Federico Santi wrote in a note on Tuesday. “Even if a Euro summit is called, it may prove too late.”

Europe Stocks Close Down, Euro Pressured as Greek Talks Stumble

European officials dismissed the Greek government’s latest proposals as ‘vague and repetitive’

The Wall Street Journal

By JOSIE COX

Updated June 15, 2015 7:34 p.m. ET

Global markets were rocked after talks between Greece and its European creditors collapsed over the weekend, sparking fresh fears of an imminent default.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.6%, led lower by a 4.7% slide by Greece’s Athex Composite index. In the U.S., the S&P 500 dropped 0.5%.

Δηλώσεις της κ. Annika Breidthardt, Εκπροσώπου Τύπου της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής σχετικά με τη δέσμη μέτρων που περιλαμβάνονται στην πρόταση των θεσμών

Η δέσμη μέτρων που προτείνουν οι θεσμοί είναι ουσιαστική, ισορροπημένη και λογικότατη από οικονομική άποψη. Οι προτάσεις ανταποκρίνονται στις ανάγκες του ελληνικού λαού, της ελληνικής κυβέρνησης αλλά και των 18 κρατών μελών τα οποία επίσης λογοδοτούν στα κοινοβούλια τους.

15/6/2015

Υπάρχουν πέντε κύριοι πυλώνες.

Μια σημαντική και αξιόπιστη δημοσιονομική προσαρμογή: η Ελλάδα θα δεσμευόταν να επιτύχει στόχο πρωτογενούς πλεονάσματος 2 % του ΑΕΠ το 2016 που να ανέλθει σε 3,5 % του ΑΕΠ το 2018.

Σημαντικά μέτρα για τη βελτίωση της φορολογικής διοίκησης (για παράδειγμα μέσω της ίδρυσης μιας ανεξάρτητης φορολογικής και τελωνειακής διοίκησης, καθώς και μέσω της καταπολέμησης της φοροδιαφυγής).

Grexit: Two Sides Of The Drachma

JUN 15, 2015 @ 5:30 PM

Forbes

By Clem Chambers,CONTRIBUTOR

I wrote a few weeks ago that everyone should relax about a Grexit, where Greece leaves the European currency and gets its drachma back. I maintained Greece was small and its impact on Europe as a whole would be, in the medium term, negligible.

However, if Greece was bailed out in the extreme manner the Greek government was demanding, then the other heavily indebted countries like Spain, Portugal and even Italy, would vote in reneging left wing governments to disavow their debt. This would risk destroying the euro and Europe itself as such an economic revolt would be unsustainable.

E.U. Urged to Plan for Greece to Default

By JAMES KANTER, ALISON SMALE and NIKI KITSANTONISJUNE 15, 2015

The New York Times

BRUSSELS — A chorus of voices on Monday called on European Union authorities to plan for Greece to default on its huge pile of debt after bailout talks between Athens and its creditors deteriorated over the weekend.

But while European leaders dialed up the sense of urgency, they did little to offer a way to break the deadlock. They instead put the onus on the government in Athens to prevent Greece from becoming the first to quit the eurozone in what would be a major setback to the nearly seven-decade project to unify the Continent.

EU preparing for 'state of emergency' after Greek talks collapse

Mon Jun 15, 2015 8:19am EDT Related: WORLD, GERMANY, GREECE

ATHENS/BERLIN | BY GEORGE GEORGIOPOULOS AND ANDREAS RINKE

Reuters

Germany's EU commissioner said on Monday it was time to prepare for a "state of emergency" after talks collapsed at the weekend to rescue Greece from default and ejection from the euro.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras ignored a litany of pleas from European leaders to act fast and instead blamed creditors for the collapse in aid-for-austerity talks, the biggest setback yet in long-running talks to secure more aid for Greece.

Greece contagion sweeps euro zone bond markets, hits shares

Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:15am EDT Related: GREECE

LONDON | BY NIGEL STEPHENSON

Reuters

Global financial markets suffered their first bout of significant contagion from the Greek crisis this year on Monday after 11th hour talks between the near bankrupt country and its creditors collapsed.

After weeks of minor ebbs and flows on the stop-start negotiations, bond markets across the euro zone signaled alarm that a deal may not be reached by mid-year, when Athens must repay 1.6 billion euros ($1.8 billion) to the International Monetary Fund.

The premium investors demand to hold Spanish, Italian and Portuguese government bonds over low-risk German Bunds hit 2015 highs, with the 10-year yield gap between Spanish and German debt at its widest since August.

Greek talks failure hits shares, buoys low-risk debt

Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:29am EDT Related: GREECE

LONDON | BY NIGEL STEPHENSON

Failure in the latest talks aimed at averting a Greek default hurt shares in Europe and Asia on Monday, drove investors into the safety of low-risk government bonds and weighed on the euro.

As contagion from the collapse of Sunday's talks spread across markets, the premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds ES10YT=TWEB over German Bunds DE10YT=TWEB hit its highest since August.

Out of Options and Time, Tsipras Faces Greece’s Moment of Truth

by Ben SillsFlavia Krause-Jackson

June 15, 2015 — 11:30 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has four days to capitulate to demands to keep Greece in the euro -- or prepare for a messy divorce.

The collapse of talks in Brussels on Sunday has made Thursday’s meeting of euro-area finance ministers the next deadline in the saga that opened in 2009. Bills are piling up and the aid spigot, shut for 10 months, is about to be withdrawn.

Greece Enters Fateful Week as Brussels Talks End Fruitlessly

by Jonathan StearnsMarcus Bensasson

Bloomberg

Greece enters what could be a defining week after last-ditch negotiations between representatives of the Greek government and its creditors collapsed on Sunday.

The euro dropped as the European Commission said the talks in Brussels had broken up after just 45 minutes with the divide between what creditors asked of Greece and what its government was prepared to do unbridged. The focus now shifts to a June 18 meeting in Luxembourg of euro-area finance ministers, known collectively as the Eurogroup, that may become a make-or-break session deciding Greece’s ability to avert default and its continued membership in the 19-nation euro area.

“While some progress was made, the talks did not succeed as there remains a significant gap,” the commission said in a text message. “On this basis, further discussion will now have to take place in the Eurogroup.”

Why Everybody’s in the Dark on Greece

Does Alexis Tsipras actually want to keep Greece in the eurozone?

By SIMON NIXON

June 14, 2015 7:41 p.m. ET

7 COMMENTS

Does Alexis Tsipras actually want to keep Greece in the eurozone?

Until recently, the answer seemed clear. The Greek prime minister fought an election promising to keep Greece in the single currency. Every survey of Greek voters showed strong support for euro membership. No one seriously doubts that a euro exit would be catastrophic for the Greek economy in the short term—and most likely in the long term too, given the potential for social and political turmoil. Sure, his Syriza party has been anti-euro as recently as 2012 and some of its leading figures have continued to argue for exit, but the bulk of the party seemed to have reconciled itself to membership.

Greece and creditors fail in 'last attempt' to reach deal

Sun Jun 14, 2015 4:25pm EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

BRUSSELS/ATHENS | BY JAN STRUPCZEWSKI AND RENEE MALTEZOU

Reuters

Talks on ending a deadlock between Greece and its international creditors broke up in failure on Sunday, with European leaders venting their frustration as Athens stumbled closer toward a debt default that threatens its future in the euro.

European Union officials blamed the collapse on Athens, saying it had failed to offer anything new to secure the funding it needs to repay 1.6 billion euros ($1.8 billion) to the International Monetary Fund by the end of this month.