Emerging ‘No’ Vote in Greece Poses Merkel’s Biggest Challenge

German leader’s response will shape future eurozone, but options are limited

The Wall Street Journal

By BERTRAND BENOIT

Updated July 5, 2015 6:03 p.m. ET

14 COMMENTS

BERLIN—The resounding “no” vote in Greece on Sunday presents German Chancellor Angela Merkel with her toughest challenge since the eurozone crisis broke out five years ago.

Her choice is now between yielding to Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras and sweetening the bailout terms for his country, or sticking to her hard line—and her own voters’ sentiment—in refusing any further concession.

Goodbye Greece: No Vote Means Grexit Is Finally Inevitable

JUL 6, 2015 @ 12:01 AM 4,397 VIEWS

Chris Wright ,CONTRIBUTOR

I write about banking and finance in Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

Forbes

Greece has spoken – and it says ‘oki’.

That’s no, to most of us: no to further austerity, no to a previous deal offered by the EU, IMF and other creditors, and no, effectively, to staying in the euro. The rhetoric from Greece – such as Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis saying: “The government can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors]” – seems to suggest that the government believes it can stay in the euro and use its referendum as a method to strength its own negotiating position. But the problem is, nobody with any power in Europe seems to share that view. They all think Greece has effectively voted to leave.

If Greece is ejected from the euro zone, it faces a chaotic currency switch

Washington Post

By Michael Birnbaum and Anthony Faiola July 2 at 8:03 PM  

ATHENS — The choice can be attractive for nations in financial peril: Stop paying debts, fire up the printing presses and flood the zone with cash. But the euro, for Greece, foreclosed that option. Now, longtime advocates of an exit from the shared currency may soon prevail.

If Greeks vote this Sunday against the harsh austerity that Europe has demanded in exchange for a financial lifeline, European Union leaders have said that Greece will eject itself from the euro zone. The transition would be a financial experiment run on the fly — and even some who have long championed Greece’s old currency say they are worried about the chaos that could ensue.

As referendum looms, Greece struggles to agree on the question

The Washington Post

By Griff Witte July 2 at 6:25 PM 

ATHENS — With just a day officially to go in a blink-and-you-miss-it campaign that could shape this country’s direction for decades, Greece is bitterly divided not only over how to vote but also over what question people are being asked to decide on.

To the radical leftist government and other “no” supporters, Sunday’s referendum represents a verdict on Europe’s latest cuts-for-cash bailout proposal — even though the offer no longer stands.

To the opposition and those backing “yes,” the choice is between sticking with Europe or going it alone.

Greeks Split Down Middle Before Bailout Referendum: Bloomberg Poll

by Nikos ChrysolorasMatthew Campbell

July 3, 2015 — 8:00 AM EEST Updated on July 3, 2015 — 9:14 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Greece is divided right down the middle heading into Sunday’s referendum on European bailout proposals, portending even more upheaval for the stricken nation.

A poll commissioned by Bloomberg News showed 43 percent intend to vote “no” to reject the austerity demanded by creditors in exchange for financial aid; 42.5 percent back a “yes” to accept the conditions, the survey of 1,042 people by the University of Macedonia Research Institute of Applied Social and Economic Studies showed. The margin of error was 3 percent.

Greece Is Doing Democracy Wrong

JUL 3, 2015 2:00 AM EDT

Bloomberg

By Noah Feldman

The Greeks invented democracy. So it might seem natural and appropriate that they’re having a referendum Sunday to decide whether to take a bailout deal previously offered by the European Union that would require austerity measures.

But in fact, under conditions of crisis, a referendum is a truly terrible idea. There are times when going around elected representatives is democratically valuable -- but in the middle of a life-or-death negotiation isn’t one of them. It’s a fantasy to think that some magical “popular will” can emerge from the vote by a divided Greek public.

In a crisis, effective democracy requires an elected leader to do what he or she thinks is right -- and take the consequences later, when elections are called. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s failure to do this isn’t democratic -- it’s irresponsible hedging in the hopes of maintaining popularity even after a change in the policies that elected him. The popular will is in any case a useful fiction, as the Greek public is soon to learn, in case they’ve forgotten.

Plight of Greek pensioners heaps pressure on Tsipras

Thu Jul 2, 2015 3:23am EDT Related: GREECE

ATHENS | BY LEFTERIS KARAGIANNOPOULOS

Reuters

Long lines of pensioners jostling to get into a limited number of banks opened specially to pay out retirement benefits have become a powerful symbol of the misery facing Greece and the problems mounting for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

With banks closed down and capital controls imposed to shield the financial system from collapse, the depth of the problems facing the country has become clearer each day.

Tsipras' leftwing government came to power in January vowing to protect pensioners and much of the breakdown in relations with international creditors centered on its refusal to accept the cuts in pensions that the lenders demanded.

Greek Referendum on Bailout Too Close to Call, Poll Shows

The battle lines are drawn in Greece. Now the politicians are waiting for the people.

by Nikos Chrysoloras

July 2, 2015 — 10:27 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Greek voters are almost evenly split heading into a referendum in three days that European leaders said could plunge the country into economic darkness.

A GPO poll cited by euro2day.gr said 47 percent leaned toward a “yes” vote, an endorsement of austerity and the international bailout. The “no” camp, the government’s position rejecting those terms, was 43 percent. The margin of error in the survey of 1,000 people was 3.1 percentage points.

The battle lines ahead of the vote appeared immovable after a day of posturing in the wake of the expiry of Greece’s bailout deal and its missing a payment to the International Monetary Fund. Politicians across Europe poured scorn on Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s strategy; he said the “no” vote would improve his leverage.

The 'Demerging' Greek Economy

28 JUL 1, 2015 12:34 PM EDT

By Marc Champion

Bloomberg

Greece may need a category of its own as it struggles with unmanageable debt and the prospect of falling out of the euro: That of a "demerging" economy.

The idea of emerging economies -- formerly poor, badly run and closed markets that open up and reform to produce rapid catch-up growth -- is well-known. We have acronyms such as BRICS and MINTs to group them.

Bankruptcy is a real possibility for Greece. Does its leader have a plan?

The Washington Post

By Michael Birnbaum and Anthony Faiola July 1 at 7:59 PM

ATHENS — Even Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s inner circle appeared Wednesday to be asking the question that has been on the minds of European Union leaders for months: Does he have a game plan as bankruptcy looms in his struggling Mediterranean nation?

The charismatic prime minister’s path toward political survival seems to be quickly narrowing. Just five months after the leftist Tsipras swept to office amid bold promises to reshape Europe’s ­debate about how to secure its economic future, his nation may be pushed off the euro if it votes Sunday against its creditors’ tough austerity demands. And if Greeks defy Tsipras by voting to take the E.U. deal, he will face heavy pressure to resign.

Greek referendum poll shows lead for 'No' vote, but narrowing

Wed Jul 1, 2015 6:39am EDT Related: GREECE

Reuters

A majority of Greeks would vote 'No' to the terms of a proposed bailout deal by foreign lenders but the lead narrowed significantly after banks were closed this week, according to an opinion poll published on Wednesday.

The poll, conducted between June 28-30 and published in the Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper, showed 54 percent of those planning to vote in Sunday's referendum would oppose the bailout against 33 percent in favor.

Europe Wants to Punish Greece With Exit

158 JUL 1, 2015 12:01 AM EDT

By Clive Crook

 Bloomberg

In my more than 30 years writing about politics and economics, I have never before witnessed such an episode of sustained, self-righteous, ruinous and dissembling incompetence -- and I'm not talking about Alexis Tsipras and Syriza. As the damage mounts, the effort to rewrite the history of the European Union's abject failure over Greece is already underway. Pending a fuller postmortem, a little clarity on the immediate issues is in order.

On Monday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said at a news conference that he'd been betrayed by the Greek government.

Fearing euro exit, thousands of Greeks rally for 'Yes' vote

Tue Jun 30, 2015 2:53pm EDT Related: GREECE

ATHENS | BY DEEPA BABINGTON

Reuters

Thousands of Greeks worried about the prospect of crashing out of Europe's currency union rallied in Athens on Tuesday behind a "Yes" vote in a referendum on whether to accept tough terms demanded by creditors to keep the country afloat.

One banner read: "We will not become the last Soviet state". Many carried flags of the European Union. They chanted "Greece, Europe, democracy!"

As default looms, Merkel rules out more negotiations with Greece

Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:04pm EDT Related: GREECE

ATHENS | BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS

Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out new negotiations with Greece until after it votes on a proposal from creditors, leaving virtually no hope left to avert a midnight default despite a plea from Athens for a last-minute bailout extension.

As the clock ticked down on Tuesday toward midnight, when billions of euros in locked-up bailout funds are due to expire, euro zone finance ministers called a conference call (1:00 a.m. EDT) to discuss the Greek request.

Greece’s Future, and the Euro’s

By THE EDITORIAL BOARDJUNE 29, 2015

The New York Times

The referendum called by Greece’s prime minister is a bad idea, but at this stage it’s about the best available. Greek banks have been shut down to avoid a meltdown; bailout talks with European creditors are frozen; Athens does not have the money to pay 1.6 billion euros due to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, threatening default and withdrawal from the euro.

So, confronted with conditions from the lenders that he dismissed as “insulting,” Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras made the surprise announcement on Saturday that he was putting the matter before Greek voters in a referendum to be held July 5.

Bank of America Strategist: Humanitarian Disaster Is Looming in Greece

by Hugh Son

June 29, 2015 — 10:47 PM EEST

Athanasios Vamvakidis, Bank of America Corp.’s head of European currency strategy, is in a difficult spot: He advises clients from London on how to make money -- or at least minimize losses -- as his homeland unravels.

His view: Greek banks will soon exhaust cash supplies, leading to shortages of imports including medicine unless the European Central Bank expands assistance, he said in an interview. A July 5 referendum on austerity measures probably will usher in August elections and a potential new government.

Greece Can Stay in Euro Even With ‘No’ Vote, Schaeuble Tells Lawmakers

by Brian ParkinBirgit JennenRainer Buergin

June 30, 2015 — 3:12 PM EEST

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin that Greece would stay in the euro for the time being if Greek voters reject austerity in a referendum scheduled this week, according to three people present.

Schaeuble also said the European Central Bank would do what’s needed to protect the euro if Greeks voted against the bailout terms in the July 5 referendum, according to the people, all of whom participated in the closed-door meeting on Tuesday. They asked not to be identified, citing the private nature of the discussion.

The German Finance Ministry declined to comment.

The Day The Euro Died

JUN 29, 2015 @ 12:34 PM

Frances Coppola

Forbes

On the evening of Friday June 26th, talks broke down between Greece and its creditors. The creditors had once more rejected Greece’s proposal and put forward their own version including tax and pension changes that Greece had already said it would not accept.

In the early hours of Saturday morning, June 27th, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced that the people of Greece would be asked to decide whether they wished to accept the creditors’ proposal. A referendum will be held on July 5th.

How much Greece owes to international creditors

Sun Jun 28, 2015 3:02pm EDT Related: GERMANY, GREECE, IMF

BRUSSELS

Reuters

Greece, which may default on an International Monetary Fund debt repayment due on Tuesday after talks with creditors broke down, owes its official lenders 242.8 billion euros ($271 billion), according to a Reuters calculation based on official data, with Germany by far the largest creditor.

That figure includes loans made under two bailouts from European governments and the IMF since 2010 -- worth a nominal 220 billion euros so far, of which some has been repaid -- as well as Greek government bonds held by the European Central Bank and national central banks in the euro zone.

Greece Comes to a Sudden Stop. Now What?

JUN 29, 2015 2:00 AM EDT

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

Sadly, the “Graccident” has happened.

 Bloomberg

The Greek economy is now in intensive care, as its parts -- and notably its banking system -- grind to a halt. The economy that eventually comes out of intensive care will be smaller and uncomfortably different in form, but it will also have the potential to prosper over the longer term if some important decisions are made rapidly and consistently.