Will Italy Leave the Euro? Follow the Money

30 OCT 17, 2016 1:31 AM EDT
By Mark Whitehouse

Bloomberg

Will Italy follow the U.K.'s example and leave the European Union? Far-fetched as it may seem, capital flows suggest that some people aren’t waiting to find out.

To keep the euro area's accounts in balance, Europe's central banks track flows of money among the members of the currency union. If, for example, a depositor moves 100 euros from Italy to Germany, the Bank of Italy records a liability to the Eurosystem and the Bundesbank records a credit. If a central bank starts building up liabilities rapidly, that tends to be a sign of capital flight.

'Brexit' May Hurt Britain Where It Thrives: Science and Research

By KIMIKO DE FREYTAS-TAMURA
OCT. 17, 2016

The New York Times

LONDON — When Adam Durant started his company analyzing climate-related threats to aircraft, he and his team of researchers symbolized the possibilities offered by the European Union.

Soon after graduating from college, Mr. Durant received a prestigious European Union grant to study atmospheric chemistry and conduct climate-related research. When he started his business, he hired staff members from Belgium and France without having to sponsor their visas.

But since Britain voted in June to leave the bloc, Mr. Durant has become the archetype of something very different: a nervous entrepreneur, unsure about future funding and even considering leaving the country.

Global Economy Week Ahead: China GDP, U.S. Industrial Production, ECB Meeting

Inflation data are due from the U.K. and the U.S., as well as retail sales from China

The Wall Street Journal

By WSJ STAFF
Oct. 16, 2016 3:00 p.m. ET
1 COMMENTS
The week’s economic calendar provides insight into how the world’s two largest economies are faring. It kicks off with a gauge of U.S. industrial activity, followed by a round of economic data out of China. From Europe comes a report on consumer confidence and a policy decision from the European Central Bank.

Nine Things You Need to Know About a ‘Hard Brexit"

Bloomberg

 Simon Kennedy

October 17, 2016 — 7:00 AM EEST

Just when you finally grasped the meaning of “Brexit,” the subject grows more complicated. In London and the capitals of continental Europe, political leaders are preparing to discuss the terms and conditions of the U.K.’s coming separation from the European Union. Two broad options are being shorthanded as "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit," with the U.K.’s prime minister, Theresa May, thought to lean toward the "hard Brexit" camp.

Kurdish Troops Advance on ISIS-Held Villages East of Mosul

By MICHAEL R. GORDON and TIM ARANGOOCT. 17, 2016

The New York Times

BADANA PICHWK, Iraq — Kurdish forces on Monday morning began advancing on a string of villages east of Mosul, the start of a long-awaited campaign to reclaim Iraq’s second-largest city from the Islamic State, which seized it more than two years ago, officials said.

About 4,000 Kurdish pesh merga troops are involved in the operation to retake 10 villages, the opening phase of a battle that could take weeks or months and could involve nearly 30,000 Iraqi and Kurdish troops, with American warplanes providing air support. Iraqi counterterrorism forces, which work closely with American Special Operations commandos in Iraq, are also expected to join the Kurdish forces in the coming days.

Greece's lenders to launch new review as Athens digs in on debt relief

Sun Oct 16, 2016 | 4:06am EDT

Reuters

By Michele Kambas and Lefteris Papadimas

Greece and its creditors start a fresh round of talks this week on reforming its labor market, a tricky task for a leftist government sliding in opinion polls but needed if the recession-hit state can ever win debt relief.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was re-elected a year ago promising to fight to revive collective bargaining and resist reforms that may lower the minimum wage. But he also needs a swift conclusion of the review to achieve Athens's primary goal of restructuring a mountain of debt, the highest in the euro zone, and mollifying an increasingly jaded public worn by years of austerity and unemployment.

Brexit means…higher prices

The economic impact of devaluations
Oct 13th 2016, 10:29 BY BUTTONWOOD

The Economist

THE economic arguments for and against Brexit in the course of the referendum campaign were quite esoteric and confusing to the average voter. Similarly, sterling’s decline in the currency markets might seem like the kind of thing that only concerns City traders.

So the row that has broken out between Tesco, Britain’s biggest supermarket chain, and Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch multinational, has made the story concrete in ways that were not apparent before. Unilever wants to raise prices across a range of goods to reflect the fall in the pound, which has dropped from around $1.50 on the day of the referendum to less than $1.22 at the time of writing. Similar falls have been seen against the euro; indeed travellers who change their money at the airport are getting less than a euro per pound.

U.S. says foreign forces in Iraq should be there with Baghdad's approval

Tue Oct 11, 2016 | 4:36pm EDT

Reuters

Foreign military forces in Iraq should be there with the approval of the Baghdad government and under the umbrella of the anti-Islamic State coalition, the U.S. State Department said on Tuesday.

Turkey and Iraq disagree over the presence of about 2,000 Turkish troops at a base in northern Iraq, as the coalition prepares for an attack on the Islamic State-held city of Mosul.

4 more Turkish servicemen lose asylum claim in Greece

Published October 11, 2016

Fox News

THESSALONIKI, Greece –  A state asylum service in Greece has rejected claims by four more Turkish military servicemen who fled in the wake of their country's failed coup attempt in mid-July.

Eight servicemen fled to the Greek border town of Alexandroupolis by helicopter, and all remain in police custody in Athens. Seven have now had their asylum claims rejected, following the latest decision announced Tuesday, with a decision pending for the eighth.

EU Sagas of Greece, Transaction Tax Back in Focus: Brussels Beat

Jonathan Stearns
October 10, 2016 — 1:00 AM EEST

Bloomberg

Two European Union financial sagas return to the spotlight this week. One is Greece. The other is the financial transaction tax being pursued by 10 EU governments.
During much of last year, it would have been reasonable to bet that the FTT initiative had a better chance of succeeding than Europe’s efforts over half a decade to keep Greece in the euro area. Concerns about the health of Deutsche Bank AG and other European lenders add to the reasons why that’s no longer the case -- and just how far the tables have turned will be on display when EU finance ministers gather in Luxembourg on Oct. 10-11.
Euro-area finance chiefs will decide on Monday whether Greece, in its third international rescue program since 2010, qualifies for another disbursement of aid. At stake is a 2.8 billion-euro ($3.1 billion) payout tied to Greek overhauls in areas in such as pensions, bank governance and the energy market.

On Greece's Lesbos, migrants remain in limbo in squalid camps

by Reuters
Monday, 10 October 2016 15:20 GMT

Thomson Reuters

The flow of new arrivals has slowed to a trickle, but thousands of migrants remain in limbo on Greece's islands, in grim camps they liken to prisons
* Nearly 15,000 refugees languish on Greek islands

* Tents unheated, sanitation poor as winter approaches

* Local people say crisis has hurt tourism

By Karolina Tagaris

Less than one euro to the pound at many UK airports

By Ian Pollock
Business reporter, BBC News
10 October 2016

BBC

The continued fall in sterling's value means that the average rate available at 17 airport bureaux de change is now just 99 euro cents to the pound.
The worst rate is currently 88 euro cents at Moneycorp at Southampton airport and the best is €1.06 from the Change Group at Glasgow Prestwick.
Since the UK's Brexit vote in June, the pound has fallen sharply in value.
The average US dollar rate at the airports is down to $1.08 to the pound.
What's the pound exchange rate near you? Please tweet your pictures of currency exchange rate boards to @BBCBusiness and let us know
The survey of airport bureau de change currency rates was carried out by travel money firm FairFX on Monday morning.

Greece Clears Hurdle Toward Another Round of Bailout Aid

Greek economic overhauls win approval from eurozone finance ministers; $3 billion more in aid coming

The Wall Street Journal

By VIKTORIA DENDRINOU
Oct. 10, 2016 2:03 p.m. ET


LUXEMBOURG—Greece has completed a set of key economic overhauls, eurozone finance ministers agreed Monday, marking the end of the first review of its fiscal bailout and clearing the way for disbursement of new loans to Athens.

The ministers, who were here for their monthly meeting, gave their blessing to €2.8 billion ($3.12 billion) in the next stage of financial aid, but they stopped short of signing off on it immediately. Instead, they said the country would receive the funds at the end of the month, when data on repayments Greece has made to domestic contractors should also be available.

While the next slice won’t be made immediately available, the fact that Greece’s creditors agreed that all the economic overhauls have been implemented essentially completes the lengthy first review of the country’s third bailout, which could amount to €86 billion

IMF says still engaged with Greece, no decision yet on bailout role

Sun Oct 9, 2016 | 12:21pm EDT

Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Sunday it is still fully engaged in talks to join the Greek bailout program and has not yet decided on what role it will take.

The IMF's comment came after two sources with direct knowledge of the Greek bailout talks told Reuters on Saturday that negotiations for the fund to commit financial resources to the program are making little headway and the IMF likely would accept a special advisory status with limited powers.

"We remain fully engaged, with the aim of reaching agreement on a program that the fund can support with a new arrangement, as requested by the authorities," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said in an emailed statement on Sunday. "In this regard a mission team will visit Athens soon."

EU Sagas of Greece, Transaction Tax Back in Focus: Brussels Beat

Bloomberg

  Jonathan Stearns

October 10, 2016 — 1:00 AM EEST

Don't Miss Out — Follow Bloomberg On

Two European Union financial sagas return to the spotlight this week. One is Greece. The other is the financial transaction tax being pursued by 10 EU governments.
During much of last year, it would have been reasonable to bet that the FTT initiative had a better chance of succeeding than Europe’s efforts over half a decade to keep Greece in the euro area. Concerns about the health of Deutsche Bank AG and other European lenders add to the reasons why that’s no longer the case -- and just how far the tables have turned will be on display when EU finance ministers gather in Luxembourg on Oct. 10-11.

London Won’t Easily Surrender Role as Euro Clearinghouse, Hammond Says

Chancellor of the Exchequer says the City should keep the business after Brexit

The Wall Street Journal

By INYOUNG HWANG
Oct. 6, 2016 1:37 p.m. ET


The City of London won’t quietly relinquish its central role in derivatives trading even after the U.K. completes its exit from the European Union, a British official said Thursday.

Philip Hammond, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said firms in London will continue to handle transactions on euro-denominated derivatives. The location of clearing, in which funds are transferred from one account to another, and of settlement, in which financial institutions agree on account balances, has emerged as a key issue in Britain’s departure from the bloc.

London is home to some of the region’s biggest clearinghouses, which are intermediaries that stand between buyers and sellers of financial instruments and act as a buffer should one side fail to hold up its obligation. A threat to the clearing and settlement business could strike at the heart of the city’s large financial industry.

Dollar flat after U.S. data, euro rises with bond yields

Wed Oct 5, 2016 | 3:30pm EDT

Reuters

By Richard Leong | NEW YORK
The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as encouraging data on the U.S. services sector offset a weaker-than-expected report on private-sector job growth, while the euro was broadly higher in step with a rise in higher euro zone bond yields.

U.S. services industries grew at their fastest pace in 11 months in September, reinforcing the view of a steady economic expansion which would allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, analysts said.

Wednesday's upbeat snapshot of the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management followed perceived hawkish remarks from regional Fed presidents Loretta Mester and Jeffrey Lacker earlier this week.

Greece’s 2017 Budget Plan Sticks With Robust Growth Forecast

But analysts say austerity and tight credit conditions are likely to weigh on economy

The Wall Street Journal

By STELIOS BOURAS
Oct. 3, 2016 11:21 a.m. ET
0 COMMENTS
ATHENS—Greece’s budget plan for 2017 sees the economy rebounding strongly after a seven-year slump, but analysts say continued austerity and tight credit conditions are likely to weigh on its recovery prospects amid uncertainty over the country’s public debt.

Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos submitted a draft copy of the budget to parliament on Monday that is expected to be finalized in coming weeks after the country resumes talks with lenders on its reform program.

The 53-page budget sticks with Greece’s previous forecasts that the economy is expected to contract by 0.3% this year before growing by 2.7% in 2017. Many see these targets as too optimistic, saying the economy is now entering a period of stagnation, rather than growth, having shrunk by more than 25% since the debt crisis erupted in 2010.

Sterling hits three-year low versus euro as Brexit deadline set

Mon Oct 3, 2016 | 4:31am EDT

Reuters

By Jemima Kelly | LONDON
Sterling slid to a three-year low against the euro and a three-month low versus the dollar on Monday, after a March deadline was set for the start of the formal process that will split Britain from the European Union.

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May told her Conservative party's annual conference on Sunday that she was determined to move on with the process and win the "right deal", in a move to ease fears inside her party that she may delay the divorce.

To fix Greece, get your figures straight

 10/01/2016 12:29 pm ET
The Huffington Post


Michael G. Jacobides
Sir Donald Gordon Chair of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, London Business School
Greece has been making headlines again - and for all the wrong reasons. Egged on by government propaganda, the judicial system has allowed a rather grotesque case to be made against Mr Andreas Georgiou, former president of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). His alleged crime was using applicable international rules to report the Greek government’s budget deficit, which had the effect of increasing it by just under 3% to a whopping 15% of GDP. Confusing cause and effect, some hot-headed Greek prosecutors claim that Georgiou’s un-sugarcoated report caused financial and social damage, leading to the EU/IMF Memorandum. Several commentators have already pointed out that shooting the messenger is a spineless, head-in-the-sand attitude. Now we have to accept that only accurate, internationally comparable figures can begin to save Greece from its financial woes.