Spot the pattern

Jul 5th 2011, 18:55 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

HERE'S a chart showing the yields on 10-year Greek debt over the past three months. See the pattern?

The abuses of austerity

A new plan to cut Greece’s debt looks doomed to fail

SOME years back a Greek finance minister, fed up with his country’s waste and extravagance, claimed that he could save money by shutting down the national railway and driving its passengers around in taxis. He was accused of hyperbole but seems, rather, to have been guilty of understatement. In 2009 the Greek railway collected just €174m ($250m) in fares and other revenues. Meanwhile, it spent €246m on wages and lost a total of €937m.

Portugal Rating Cut on Possible Greek Follow

Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s credit rating to below investment grade on concern the southern European country will need to follow Greece in seeking a second international bailout.

The long-term government bond ratings were lowered to Ba2, or junk, from Baa1, and the outlook is negative. Discussions to involve private investors in a new rescue plan for Greece make it more likely that the European Union will require the same pre-conditions in the case of Portugal, Moody’s said in a statement.

“That’s very significant because not only does it affect current investors, but it is likely to discourage new private- sector lending going forward, and therefore reduce the likelihood that a country like Portugal will be able to regain access to the capital markets at a sustainable cost,” Anthony Thomas, a senior analyst at Moody’s in London, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Greek Rescue Snarled by Sales

By STEPHEN FIDLER And MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG

Europe's hopes for a significant contribution by private bondholders to a new bailout for Greece are fading, as it becomes clear that banks have sold off a substantial proportion of their Greek government-bond holdings despite pledges by some of the institutions not to do so.

Greece has about €64 billion ($93 billion) of benchmark bonds coming due in the next three years, among other liabilities, and euro-zone leaders had hoped that private lenders would voluntarily take on longer maturities in order to improve the country's battered finances

Greek Finance Minister Moves From Crisis to Crisis

By LANDON THOMAS Jr. and RACHEL DONADIO

Published: July 5, 2011

ATHENS — As he approached the end of another 16-hour workday, Evangelos Venizelos had one question on his mind: Will Europe come up with the money that Greece so desperately needs? As the new Greek finance minister, Mr. Venizelos is the man in charge of steering a nearly bankrupt economy back on track — and, perhaps, preventing another global financial crisis.

No sooner had he presided over the close passage of a new austerity bill last week, than he was contending with the growing controversy over how much money private banks would contribute by taking on more Greek debt.

Greek Opposition Slams Tax Rises

Samaras—Potential Contender for Prime Minister—Says Bailout Plan Is 'Failure

By ALKMAN GRANITSAS And MARCUS WALKER

ATHENS—The international plan to fix Greece's finances is failing and needs a rethink, the head of Greece's main opposition party said in an interview.

Instead of strangling the Greek economy with tax increases, Europe and the International Monetary Fund should let Greece cut taxes to jump-start growth, said Antonis Samaras, leader of the center-right New Democracy party and possibly the country's next prime minister.

The austerity program for Greece "is a failure," Mr. Samaras said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, his first with international media since becoming Greece's opposition leader. Citing Greece's poor tax revenues amid a worsening recession, he said: "I think our lenders will have to change their policy. My question is why do we have to go further down the drain in the meantime?"

Πρόγραμμα Οικονομικής Προσαρμογής της Ελλάδας

 Τέταρτη Επανεξέταση – 'Ανοιξη 2011

ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ

Κοινό κλιμάκιο της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής, της Ευρωπαϊκής Κεντρικής Τράπεζας και του Διεθνούς Νομισματικού Ταμείου συναντήθηκε με τις ελληνικές αρχές στην Αθήνα από 3 Μαΐου έως 2 Ιουνίου και από 21 έως 23 Ιουνίου 2011. Το κλιμάκιο αξιολόγησε τη συμμόρφωση προς τους όρους της τέταρτης επανεξέτασης βάσει του Προγράμματος Οικονομικής Προσαρμογής.

Κατά το τελευταίο έτος το πρόγραμμα οικονομικών πολιτικών φάνηκε να είναι το κατάλληλο πρόγραμμα συνδρομής προς την Ελλάδα ώστε η χώρα να περιορίσει τις μακροοικονομικές και δημοσιονομικές της ανισορροπίες. Οι στόχοι του προγράμματος είναι η αποκατάσταση της δημοσιονομικής διατηρησιμότητας, η διατήρηση της χρηματοπιστωτικής  σταθερότητας και της ενδεδειγμένης ρευστότητας του τραπεζικού τομέα καθώς και η αποκατάσταση της ανταγωνιστικότητας.

The Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece Fourth Review – Spring 2011

Full text: http://ec.europa.eu/ellada/pdf/20110704economicadjprogrammegreece.pdf

Greek fiscal survival vital for euro zone FinMin

(Reuters) - Greece will stave off default not only for its own sake but because its survival is vital for the euro zone and the global economy, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Reuters on Monday.

With help from its EU partners and fresh determination, the debt-ridden euro zone member will regain its fiscal sovereignty as soon as possible and aims to return to markets in the middle of 2014, as expected, the minister said.

S&P Says Bank Plan Opens Door to Default

By STEPHEN FIDLER in Brussels and COSTAS PARIS and NEELABH CHATURVEDI in London

European efforts to encourage private investors to contribute to a new international bailout for Greece hit new problems Monday when the Standard & Poor's rating company said the leading proposal under consideration would likely bring the country into default.

S.&P. Warns Bank Plan Would Cause Greek Default

PARIS — Greece risks being judged in default on its debt obligations if banks are forced to bear part of the pain, Standard & Poor’s said Monday, suggesting that current proposals for rescuing the euro zone’s weakest member may have to be reconsidered.

In particular, a plan proposed by the French government and banks “could require private sector debt restructuring in a form that we would view as an effective default,” S.&P. said in a statement.

The rating agency also said it was cutting its long-term rating on Greece three notches deeper into junk territory, to CCC from B.

Η αλλαγή του πολιτικού Παραδείγματος

 Κυριακή, 03 Ιούλιος 2011 10:33

Πάσχος Μανδραβέλης

Η Ελλάδα βρίσκεται ακριβώς στην περίοδο «κρίσης Παραδείγματος» και στην αναζήτηση μιας νέας θεώρησης των πολιτικών και κοινωνικών πραγμάτων.

________________________________________

Ένα από τα ερωτήματα που κυκλοφορούν είναι «αν και κατά πόσον το πολιτικό σύστημα που μάς οδήγησε σ' αυτή την κρίση μπορεί και να μάς βγάλει από αυτή». Δύσκολο ερώτημα, διότι όπως έλεγε και ο μεγάλος φυσικός Νιλς Μπορ «οι προβλέψεις είναι δύσκολες, ειδικά όταν αφορούν το μέλλον».

Αλλά, πάλι, το ερώτημα εμπεριέχει μια μπαγαποντιά. Πολλοί από όσους θέτουν το ερώτημα θεωρούν αξιωματικά ότι το πολιτικό σύστημα είναι κάτι που βρίσκεται έξω από τις κοινωνικές διεργασίες και αυτονομημένο κατάφερε να μάς οδηγήσει στην κρίση. Ταυτόχρονα, όμως, θεωρούν ως το μέγιστο αμάρτημα αυτού τού πολιτικού συστήματος τον «φόβο τού πολιτικού κόστους». Δηλαδή κατηγορούν το πολιτικό σύστημα ότι δεν έδρασε επαρκώς αυτόνομα από την κοινωνική θέληση, ώστε να λάβει τα «αντιλαϊκά μέτρα» που απαιτούνταν για να μην οδηγηθούμε στην κρίση.

S&P warning adds default threat to Greece's bailout

(Reuters) - Greece would likely be in default if it follows a debt rollover plan pushed by French banks, S&P warned on Monday, deepening the pain of a bailout that one European official said will cost Athens sovereignty and jobs.

European politicians and bankers had expressed confidence last week that the French proposal would not trigger a default, but ratings agency Standard & Poor's said it would involve losses to debt holders, most likely earning Greece a "selective default" rating. "It is our view that each of the two financing options described in the (French banks') proposal would likely amount to a default under our criteria," S&P said.

French banks, major holders of Greek sovereign debt, proposed voluntarily renewing some of the bonds when they fall due, but on different terms.

Greece Awaits Further Rescue

Εuro-zone finance ministers signed off on a new slice of bailout money for Greece, avoiding a financial meltdown this month, but left themselves with a heavy task ahead to work out details for a new rescue package for the country.

The ministers' agreement in a teleconference call on Saturday evening leaves only the expected approval of the board of the International Monetary Fund before €12 billion ($17.4 billion) is handed over to Athens. The payment is expected by July 15.

Geithner mulls departing Treasury post: sources

1-7-2011

(Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is considering stepping down later this year, but will not make a decision until contentious negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling are completed, people familiar with his thinking said on Thursday.

Geithner said he would remain in his Treasury post "for the foreseeable future" and sidestepped a direct question about his career plans after a flurry of media reports that he was mulling leaving the Obama administration.

Τα συμπεράσματα από ένα βίντεο

Πάσχος Μανδραβέλης

 Παρασκευή, 01 Ιούλιος 2011 08:40

Ένα βίντεο εξαπλώθηκε προχθές με αστραπιαία ταχύτητα σε ολόκληρο το Διαδίκτυο. Εμφάνιζε δύο άνδρες να φυγαδεύονται από τους αστυνομικούς. Ο ένας είχε μπαταρισμένο κεφάλι, μαύρη μπλούζα στο πρόσωπο και κρατούσε βέργα dexion. Ο άλλος φορούσε ιατρική μάσκα.

Το βίντεο, λογικά, εξαπλώθηκε διότι κάτι μύριζε. Ταυτόχρονα όμως, και χωρίς να γίνει κάποιος έλεγχος των γεγονότων, απλώθηκε και το συμπέρασμα: Ιδού οι «προβοκάτορες», «ασφαλίτες», «παρακρατικοί» που δημιουργούν τα επεισόδια. Μάλιστα, η μπλούζα στο πρόσωπο, που είναι αθωωτικό στοιχείο για κάθε διαδηλωτή («την φορούσε για να προστατευτεί από τα δακρυγόνα»), στην περίπτωση των δύο ήταν ενοχοποιητικό: «Φως φανάρι! Πρόκειται για τους ταραξίες κουκουλοφόρους».

Το χειρότερο έλλειμμα που αφήνει η μεταπολίτευση είναι στη λογική. Κανείς, για παράδειγμα, δεν αναρωτήθηκε: τι σόι συνωμοσία (κράτους - παρακράτους) είναι αυτή που αφενός μένει μυστική επί τριακονταετία και αφετέρου ένα επεισόδιό της διαδραματίζεται καταμεσής στην Πλατεία Συντάγματος και μπροστά σε δεκάδες κάμερες;

Twist in Strauss-Kahn Case

Questions Are Raised About Accuser's Veracity; Hearing Is Set on Terms of Bail

By MICHAEL ROTHFELD And CHAD BRAY

The sexual-assault case against former International Monetary Fund leader Dominique Strauss-Kahn appeared to be weakening Thursday as prosecutors and his defense team prepared to raise questions about the credibility of the maid who accused him, people close to the case said.

Problems with the prosecution's main witness are expected to be made public at a last-minute court hearing scheduled for Friday morning before State Supreme Court Justice Michael Obus. Defense lawyers are likely to ask the judge to end house arrest and electronic monitoring, two restrictive conditions of Mr. Strauss-Kahn's bail.

Ανατροπή στην υπόθεση Στρος Καν;

DW 1-7-2011

Ραγδαίες είναι οι εξελίξεις στην υπόθεση του πρώην ισχυρού άνδρα του ΔΝΤ. Δημοσίευμα των New York Times υποστηρίζει ότι το κατηγορητήριο εναντίον του βρίσκεται υπό κατάρρευση.

Σύμφωνα με την εφημερίδα οι ανακριτές έχουν σοβαρές αμφιβολίες για την αξιοπιστία του υποτιθέμενου θύματος καθώς τα όσα υποστηρίζει η καμαριέρα παρουσιάζουν ανακολουθίες. Η γυναίκα δεν φαίνεται να πείθει για τις συνθήκες κάτω από τις οποίες έγινε ο υποτιθέμενος βιασμός ενώ έχει επανειλημμένως πέσει σε αντιφάσεις.

What have we become?

The Economist 1-7-2011

Some Greeks are angry about their paralysed, corrupt country. Others just want the good times to come back

THEY had been warned. As Greece’s 300 legislators debated, and finally approved, an internationally backed financial-rescue plan with many clear downsides—it will pile pain onto hapless firms and citizens who already pay taxes, for instance, and so subsidise those who do not—some dire pronouncements on the possible consequences of saying “no” to the world were ringing in their ears.

A group of 18 Greek economists (mostly from the nation’s academic diaspora, in flight from the cronyism and disorder that mar campuses back home) listed some of the likely results if the country opted for autarky: in other words, if it stopped paying its debt and rejected the idea of moving, with foreign help, towards fiscal and administrative health.

Timeline: Key hurdles for Greece in coming weeks

29-6-2011

(Reuters) – With Greece close to bankruptcy, Prime Minister George Papandreou is trying this week to push through parliament an austerity package needed to secure international funding by mid-July, when the country could otherwise default on its debt.

Here are challenges and deadlines that Greece will need to meet in coming weeks: