Could Greece Pivot To Russia And China?

Raoul Ruparel Contributor

Forbes

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras heads to Moscow tomorrow amongst significant noise around a potential Greek pivot towards Russia and China. But how realistic a proposition is this? The short answer is, not very. Most of the noise is precisely that, just noise. But it is worth exploring in more detail just why this is the case and what it means for the current negotiations around Greece’s position in the Eurozone and EU-Russia relations.

Greece’s Worst Option: IMF Default

APR 6, 2015 3:00 AM EDT

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis's surprise decision to meet with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde in Washington on Sunday added to the suspense over whether Greece would make its April 9 debt payment to the fund.

This is a consequential question because defaults on loans from the IMF, one of the world’s few “preferred creditors,” are extremely rare. When they have occurred, the debtors have tended to be fragile or failed states in the developing world and not advanced countries, let alone members of the euro zone, one of the world’s elite economic groups.

Greece Must Walk the Talk, and Soon

APRIL 6, 2015

The New  York Times

By HUGO DIXON | REUTERS

Greece has two weeks to produce some red meat.

The prospect of a default is off the table for the time being after Yanis Varoufakis, the country’s finance minister, confirmed that Greece would meet a payment to the International Monetary Fund on Thursday. But, with more payments looming, the fear of bankruptcy will be back by the end of April if Greece doesn’t come up with some serious overhauls by then.

Greece needs deal with lenders on April 24 -finance minister to paper

Mon Apr 6, 2015 7:53am EDT Related: WORLD, GREECE

(Reuters) - Greece must reach an outline funding agreement with its lenders at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on April 24, its finance minister told a Greek newspaper on Monday.

"At the Eurogroup (meeting) of April 24 there must be a preliminary conclusion (of the talks), as per the Eurogroup accord on Feb. 20," Yanis Varoufakis told daily Naftemporiki.

Ex-Bank of England boss sees a way to a ‘rapidly growing’ Greece

Published: Apr 3, 2015 1:19 p.m. ET

By SILVIA ASCARELLI SENIOR NEWS EDITOR

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—If Greece were to leave the eurozone, it would face “pretty horrendous” times in the short term, a former head of the Bank of England said.

But after 2 1/2 to three years, it would have a “rapidly growing” economy and falling unemployment, said Meryvn King, who ran the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013. He spoke before an audience of mostly Princeton University professors and students Thursday.

Greece moves to quell default fears, pledges to meet 'all obligations'

WASHINGTON | BY ANNA YUKHANANOV

(Reuters) - Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Sunday that Greece "intends to meet all obligations to all its creditors, ad infinitum," seeking to quell default fears ahead of a big loan payment Athens owes the IMF later this week.

Following a meeting with the head of the International Monetary Fund, Varoufakis told reporters the government plans to "reform Greece deeply" and would seek to improve the "efficacy of negotiations" with its creditors.

Greece Debt Default: German Intransigence Raises Spectre for ‘Grexit’

By Nile Bowie

Global Research, April 05, 2015

New Eastern Outlook

Greece’s newly elected government, led by the leftist Syriza coalition that swept into power in January on an anti-austerity platform, finds itself in a highly unenviable position. Athens is burdened by colossal debt, imminent liquidity problems and a looming banking collapse. What is at stake for Greece now is its very ability to survive economically within the euro-zone.

The Syriza coalition emerged from various offshoots of the Greek radical left, which set itself apart from the political mainstream by taking an anti-capitalist position emphasizing wealth redistribution and class struggle, while allying itself with alter-globalization movements and trade unions. The ascension of Syriza represents the most leftward shift in European politics in decades.

Buffett not alone in failing to grasp Grexit dangers

If Mr Buffett seriously thinks that the euro would be strengthened by a Greek exit, which is what he said, then he needs his head examined.

The Telegraph

By Jeremy Warner7:30PM BST 04 Apr 2015

It is hard to think of a nicer and wiser capitalist than Warren Buffett, but every man has his day, and the time may finally have come for the Sage of Omaha to spend more time with his ukulele.

I say this because last week he demonstrably broke one of his first rules of investment, which is never get involved in things you don’t fully understand.

Both sides are playing a risky game over Greece. Are we approaching the end?

The Greek negotiations have resembled Zeno’s dichotomy paradox, with the two sides halving the distance between each other but never meeting

 The Telegraph

By Ben Wright8:18PM BST 02 Apr 2015

Is this it? Are we reaching the event horizon beyond which the gravitational pull of Greece’s debts becomes so great that escape is rendered impossible?

Time and money are both dwindling. No one knows precisely when the Athenian coffers will contain nothing but moths and lint.

What To Buy If Greece Exits The Euro Zone

 4/03/2015 @ 7:41μμ

 \By Henry To

 The Forbes

Earlier last month, we discussed why the chance of a long-term solution to keep Greece in the Euro Zone was slim, due to three reasons:

Greece's Syriza Confronts Reality

11 APR 2, 2015 10:15 AM EDT

By Leonid Bershidsky

Reality does depressing things to dreams. It kills them off quickly and mercilessly, and because people have short memories and dreams are short-lived, we often forget what they were like when they began. This is why it's worthwhile to compare Greece's first "full summary" of reforms, released today, to be undertaken so the country can unlock financing from international creditors, with the election program that the ruling Syriza party announced last September.

Exclusive: Greece tells creditors it will run out of cash on April 9

Markets | Thu Apr 2, 2015 12:45pm EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/02/us-eurozone-greece-liquidity-idUSKBN0MT1HB20150402

(Reuters) - Greece has told its creditors it will run out of money on April 9, making an appeal for more loans before reforms on which new disbursements hinge are agreed and implemented, but the request was rejected, euro zone officials said.

The appeal was made by Athens at a teleconference of euro zone deputy finance ministers on Wednesday organized to assess how far Greece still was from meeting the conditions for unlocking new financial aid.

Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment

'We are a Left-wing government. If we have to choose between a default to the IMF or a default to our own people, it is a no-brainer,' says senior Greek official

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, & Mehreen Khan9:22PM BST 02 Apr 2015

The Telegraph

Greece is drawing up drastic plans to nationalise the country's banking system and introduce a parallel currency to pay bills unless the eurozone takes steps to defuse the simmering crisis and soften its demands.

Greece comes kicking and screaming to reform table

By Neil Unmack APRIL 2, 2015

Reuters

Greece is coming kicking and screaming to the reform table. The Syriza government’s latest proposals include some concessions to its public creditors. The plan still lacks detail, and reneges on past promises. The risk of an accidental euro zone exit is rising.

Samaras Says He’d Join Alliance to Keep Greece in Euro

by James HertlingNikos Chrysoloras

5:00 AM EEST

April 2, 2015

 Bloomberg

As Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras struggles to secure a financial bailout to stay in the euro, his chief rival said he’s open to offering a political rescue.

Opposition leader Antonis Samaras, who was ousted by Tsipras in January elections, signaled his willingness to join a unity government if the concessions required to win emergency loans drive a wedge through the ruling anti-austerity coalition.

Running out of room

The Economist

Greece looks to China and Russia for help but cannot get around its euro zone partners

Apr 1st 2015

ALEXIS TSIPRAS, the Greek prime minister, and his radical Syriza party are beginning to feel the heat. Two months of bluster by Greece’s first left-wing government have failed to produce the results it wanted. Those include an injection of fresh cash from the country’s current €172 billion ($185 billion) bail-out programme, and a new deal with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that would allow Athens, not its creditors, to decide on future economic reforms.

ECB lifts ceiling on Greek emergency loans

Published: Apr 2, 2015 2:58 a.m. ET

By NEKTARIA STAMOULI

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-lifts-ceiling-on-greek-emergency-loans-2015-04-02

ATHENS--The European Central Bank on Wednesday increased the amount of money Greek banks can borrow under an emergency lending program, extending a lifeline for the country's banks as its government continues tense negotiations with its creditors over its bailout program.

Greece sends updated reforms, pledges to pay IMF on time

ATHENS | BY RENEE MALTEZOU AND COSTAS PITAS

(Reuters) - Greece sent an updated list of reforms to lenders on Wednesday to try to unlock financial aid and avoid a default but euro zone officials said more work was needed before new funds could be released.

Greece is weeks away from running out of cash but its euro zone and International Monetary Fund lenders have frozen support payments until it implements reforms, with talks bogged down over what measures the leftist-led government must take.

A Eurozone Without Greece

It’s time to think more seriously about this possibility.

The Wall Street Journal

By RICHARD BARWELL

April 1, 2015 3:48 p.m. ET

The 24-hour news cycle is causing a cacophony of speculation about Greece leaving the euro, the so-called Grexit. Amid all the arguments about whether Greece will or should exit, there has been a lot less thought given to what would happen if Greece does return to the drachma. It’s time to think more seriously about this possibility.

Greek stalemate to last until after Easter as Goldman Sachs warns of costly Grexit

Investment bank says "damage has been done" as creditors continue to squeeze Athens for more reforms in return for cash

The Telegraph 

By Mehreen Khan4:30PM BST 31 Mar 2015

Greece's bail-out stalemate showed no signs of easing after a long weekend of delay and frustration for Athens officials in Brussels.

Representatives of the Greek government returned to the country on Tuesday having failed to seal an agreement on the economic reforms they will need to carry out in order to satisfy the demands of its international lenders and unlock €7.2bn in bail-out funds.