The Wall
Street Journal
By WILLIAM BOSTON and MARCUS WALKER
Ms. Merkel's first challenge, however, is to
overcome her differences about the way forward with French President Nicolas
Sarkozy…
… that euro members would have to accept a loss
of national sovereignty, and that there is no quick fix to the crisis.
… they are prepared to sign a fiscal pact
among the euro zone's 17 governments if the wider, 27-country EU won't agree…
…massive ECB intervention, …, if it doesn't work, could leave Europe
staring into the abyss with no more cards to play…
…the potential for bondholder losses in future
has helped to undermine investors' confidence…
Ms. Merkel's first challenge, however, is to
overcome her differences about the way forward with French President Nicolas
Sarkozy at a
meeting in Paris on Monday.
Ms. Merkel
is—so far—defying pressure from Mr. Sarkozy to stop the capital flight from
euro-zone government bond markets by resorting to radical measures, such as
giving a green light to the European Central Bank for massive bond-market
intervention.
Instead,
the chancellor wants to focus on what she sees as the root causes of the crisis
by creating a long-term regime of fiscal discipline, while changing the
European Union's treaty to give European authorities new powers of enforcement.
In a speech
to Germany 's
parliament on Friday, she warned that euro
members would have to accept a loss of national sovereignty, and that there is
no quick fix to the crisis.
But fear is
growing even in Berlin
that Ms. Merkel's long-term fix may not be enough to stop the panicked exodus
of investors from government debt markets. The price of failure, German
officials know, is a wave of national insolvencies in a swath of the euro zone,
which could plunge Europe into a depression
and batter the global economy.
In the
latest sign of financial strains in the euro zone, overnight deposits by the
region's banks with the ECB hit a new high for the year on Thursday, rising to
€314 billion ($422.7 billion). Analysts said the growing use of the ECB deposit
facility is reminiscent of the 2008 banking crisis, and shows that banks are so
wary of lending to each other that they would rather stash their money in a
safe haven that pays very low interest.
Ms. Merkel
and Mr. Sarkozy aim to push through a tough overhaul of euro-zone governance at
an EU summit in Brussels
on Dec. 8-9, demonstrating to markets that euro-zone nations are more strongly
committed than ever to political and monetary unity.
But a deal
at the summit hinges on Berlin and Paris overcoming
differences on issues ranging from the role of the European Central Bank and
how to boost the euro zone bailout fund, to exactly what it would mean to allow
European authorities to supervise the national budgets of euro members.
Ms. Merkel is
redoubling Germany 's
quest for automatic sanctions, administered by European bureaucrats, against
euro-zone countries that violate European limits on budget deficits. Mr.
Sarkozy, in a speech Thursday, appeared to warm to the German argument that
only binding restrictions would work, but he still said only that France would
support "more automatic" sanctions.
France is
hoping a deal among governments on fiscal discipline will encourage the ECB to
step up its intervention in government markets, to keep countries' borrowing
costs from rising to ruinous levels. The ECB has been reluctant to increase its
limited bond-buying partly because it fears doing so would take the pressure
off national governments such as Italy 's to curb their debts.
Ms. Merkel,
however, remains skeptical about massive ECB bond buying funded by money
printing, fearing that it could undermine the bank's credibility as an
inflation fighter, which Germany
views as the ECB's most important mission.
In Berlin , policy makers
are increasingly worried about the worsening euro crisis and are inching closer
to accepting that unorthodox measures may be needed to prevent government bond
markets from collapsing. But Ms. Merkel remains wary of massive ECB intervention, which she sees as a high-risk move that, if it doesn't work, could leave Europe
staring into the abyss with no more cards to play.
Ms. Merkel
insisted again on Friday that the integrity of the ECB must be protected. Germany is open
to one new measure involving the ECB, according to people familiar with the
matter: A proposal for the ECB's constituent banks, the central banks of euro
nations, to make bilateral loans to the International Monetary Fund to beef up
the IMF's treasure chest for dealing with the European crisis. No decision has
been taken and the amount of such loans isn't clear.
Analysts
say that while such a step would help, it wouldn't be the "bazooka"
that investors are looking for from the ECB.
While Mr.
Sarkozy is pushing for short-term moves to stop the crisis, Ms. Merkel's
proposals on Friday focused on making the euro zone more stable in the long
term and preventing a crisis of excessive government from recurring.
Ms. Merkel
said her strategy is to use the crisis as an opportunity to achieve long-term
change in Europe, especially to make significant progress on building a closer political union in Europe to compliment its currency union.
The
problem, say many policy makers and economists around Europe, is that such long-term reforms aren't enough to
stem the immediate crisis, which is that investors are increasingly
unwilling to lend to a growing number of euro-zone nations at affordable rates.
Most
analysts say only the ECB, with its ability to create euros, possesses the
firepower to give governments the time they need to repair their public
finances and enact pro-growth overhauls of their economy. ECB President Mario
Draghi indicated on Thursday that the
central bank is willing to do more to help fight the crisis, provided
governments make the first move. But the central bank remains wary of
taking unorthodox steps that could spark a political firestorm in Germany , the
euro's most important member.
Officials
around Europe are now hoping that France's acceptance of binding enforcement of
budget discipline across the euro zone will allow Ms. Merkel to be more
tolerant of large-scale ECB intervention in bond markets. Germany and France
have also sparred for months over whether bondholders should suffer losses when
countries such as Greece
need a bailout from their euro-zone peers. Europe
leaders agreed in March to establish a permanent bailout fund, the European
Stability Mechanism, with a rulebook that could often lead to losses for
bondholders when countries need aid loans.
Critics say
that highlighting the potential for
bondholder losses in future has helped to undermine investors' confidence
in European government bonds, worsening the crisis. France
is now pushing back against Germany 's
demands for bondholder participation in bailouts, and wants to drop or at least
downgrade the provisions about debt restructuring. Even Berlin
chancellery officials now accept that the decision in July to restructure Greece 's bonds, while needed to reduce Athens ' crushing debt
load, has fuelled investor fears that euro-zone government bonds are no longer
safe assets.
Ms. Merkel
signalled on Friday that she is having second thoughts about the wisdom of
emphasizing bondholder losses. "We have a draft for the ESM, which must be
changed in the light of developments" in financial markets since the
Greek-restructuring decision in July, she said after meeting Austria 's chancellor in Berlin .
Austrian
Finance Minister Maria Fekter, speaking at a conference in Hamburg on Friday, was more direct.
"Trust in government treasuries was so thoroughly destroyed by involving
private sector investors in the debt relief that you have to wonder why anyone still
buys government bonds at all," Ms. Fekter said.
—Bernd
Radowitz and Mary M. Lane
in Berlin , and David Gauthier-Villars in Paris contributed to this
article.
Write to
William Boston
at william.boston@dowjones.com and Marcus Walker at marcus.walker@wsj.com
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