Dhara Ranasinghe
CNBC
Greek banks
are increasingly reliant on emergency funding from the European Central Bank
(ECB) to get by and analysts say that if the central bank curbs this lending, Greece
In short,
that means restricting the amount of cash consumers and businesses can tap from
banks.
Here's why
the risk of capital controls has risen:
Exit of
cash:
Failure to
reach a deal with its creditors as a series of loan repayments to the
International Monetary Fund loom have fuelled uncertainty about Greece
Because of
those deposit outflows, the Bank of Greece has replaced the loss of deposits
with emergency funding from the ECB known officially as Emergency Liquidity
Assistance (ELA).
Analysts at
UBS said in a note on Monday that with minimal cash reserves of 1.9 billion
euros at Greek banks and about 3-7 billion euros in deposit outflows a month,
Greek banks need the ELA to keep ATMs running.
Trigger:
But given
the slow pace of talks, the ECB has not significantly raised the amount of
emergency funding to Greek banks. Analysts say that if it were to restrict this
funding, Athens
"Given
that Greece and its creditors still remain at daggers drawn over crucial terms
of the bailout agreement, there's a significant and rising risk that some form
of capital controls will have to be imposed," Nicholas Spiro, managing
director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy, told CNBC.
"If
the ECB is forced to severely restrict ELA because of a default or breakdown in
negotiations, then it's very likely Greece
will go the way of Cyprus
Yes, that's
right, capital controls imposed in the tiny Mediterranean island in 2013 to
contain a financial crisis, could be a model for what happens next in Greece
The radical
measures were eased in January, with the remaining capital controls lifted in
April.
Real risk:
Credit
ratings agency Moody's said last month there was a "high likelihood"
of capital controls being introduced in Greece
And UBS had
this to say: "Negotiations have entered the decisive phase, while talks
continue to be difficult. The risk of capital controls has increased to 40-50
percent in our view, while the exit risk is currently at the upper end of our
20-30 percent range."
Permission
first:
If Greece
"Ideally,
capital controls would have to be put in place practically overnight…This would
deepen Greece's recession but would, in theory, give Athens time to hammer out
a short-term deal with creditors," said Spiro at Spiro Sovereign Strategy.
"However,
let's be clear, capital controls contravene EU law and in the case of Cyprus Greece
Dhara
Ranasinghe
Associate
Producer
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